As the Baltimore Ravens roll into Foxboro this weekend, I can’t help but think of the week 13 match-up from 2007.  The Patriots were cruising towards 16-0 when Baltimore decided not to bow down in awe, but instead fight tooth and nail to stop New England.  In the end, a mixture of bad decisions and untimely penalties kept Baltimore from coming away with the win.  This year’s game will go down with much different circumstances.

New England is still trying to get their train on the right tracks.  Between Brady’s return and a rash of injuries, the offense seems lackluster, especially inside the 20.  Even last week’s comfortable victory over Atlanta was less impressive when you see four Gosktowski field goals.  The Ravens come in at a generous 3-0.  Wins over Kansas City and Cleveland don’t count for much these days.  I actually think Cleveland fans are somewhat envious of Detroit, and praying Sam Bradford doesn’t stay for his senior year.

Baltimore’s offense has put up points, albeit against two awful defenses, and one marginal one in San Diego.  Strangely enough, the New England defense will be the first real test for Joe Flacco and the offense.  While the New England D has been bashed and picked apart, they rank 7th and 6th respectively league wide for points and yards allowed.  Where I’m looking for improvement from the defense is takeaways.  A staple of past Patriots’ defenses was the timely interception or fumble.  We saw a glimpse of that with last week’s second quarter fumble caused by Brandon McGowan, but now we need to see some ball hawking by the secondary.  Flacco is being allowed to throw more than he was last year, and facing a more talented defense then last week may force him into some poor decisions (and maybe a pick six).

When the Pats have the ball they need to make a statement.  Injuries will be the major hurdle in their way.  Moss is still on the injury report with a bad back, Welker’s knee is still a concern, and Kaczur has a bad ankle.  And while I love Julian Edelman, we need to remember that at this time last year he was a quarterback in the MAC (but imagine the scenario where a healthy Welker and more developed Edelman are on the field at the same time?).  I was checking stats at profootballreference.com (best statistical source for the NFL) and one thing was standing out.  The Patriots scoring summary lists four players: Gosktowski (of course), Fred Taylor, Benjamin Watson, and Chris Baker.  The kicker, one running back, and two tight ends.  That’s it!  Zero receivers have reached pay dirt.  This is a problem, and hopefully it’ll be solved against a weak set of corners from Baltimore (but don’t forget Ed Reed lurking out there).

I think we all believe that sooner or later the offense will snap into place.  I don’t think that will happen over night, but rather piece by piece.  This weekend I expect to see a more efficient red zone offense.  I’m sure Belichick has focused on that at practice and perhaps will see more running of the ball to set up the play action.  The Pats won’t run away with a victory but will play solid football once again and string together back-to-back wins.  Patriots over the Ravens, 27-20.