Forecast: political heat wave predicted for hot state races

The latest political tome that has sent Washington and the political world all a dither is "Game Change," an entertaining look at the 2008 presidential campaign.

Not to be outdone, Connecticut's political environs are currently experiencing their own game change with the sensible decision of Sen. Christopher Dodd to retire and the subsequent announcement of Attorney General Richard Blumenthal to seek Dodd's office.

These announcements have dramatically changed the atmosphere and opportunities for elective office in the Nutmeg State. This game change in Connecticut, along with a strong Republican tail wind blowing across the country, will result in the nomination and election of Rob Simmons to the U.S. Senate. It could also lead to a Republican three-peat in the governor's office.

In 2000 then-state Rep. Rob Simmons took on and defeated the Goliath of the Connecticut Democratic congressional delegation, Sam Gejdenson. Simmons, a blue-blood cranky Yankee, who, unlike many of his standing, chose to go to Vietnam and fight, continued his lifelong public service in the CIA.

In Congress, Simmons was an anti-tax, pro-choice, pro-gun and pro-environment moderate Republican. He was opposed to the war in Iraq before he was for it. It was this slow ebb from the victorious, moderate Simmons of 2000 to his current reach for the tea-party movement that condemned him to an 83-vote loss to Vernon lawyer Joe Courtney in 2006.

Time to recalibrate

Facing these new metrics Simmons and his team will recalibrate and get back to Simmons 2000. Connecticut Republicans will rally behind the only primary candidate with the experience of hand-to-hand campaign combat. The Linda McMahon and Peter Schiff campaign's, largely based on change, will begin to echo one another and wilt under media pressure that Simmons has already endured over a career of public service.

Yes, recent poll numbers indicate that perhaps an election is superfluous since candidate Blumenthal, the state's longtime popular attorney general, crushes all Republican challengers by 30 points. A Tufts University political science professor suggested the same after Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley won her primary and had a similar lead in the polls.

"The election is over. We have to vote in January, but the outcome is preordained. Coakley will win," professor Jeffrey Berry said in December.

That was just a mere month ago. Here in Connecticut, it is nine months until voters elect a new U.S. senator and governor.

At last count there were 12 candidates with exploratory gubernatorial committees. With that much exploring one could conclude that undersea explorer Bob Ballard is a candidate. Only former state House Speaker Jim Amann has announced he is officially a candidate for governor.

Democrats have numerous competent and successful candidates. Sadly, all Democratic candidates know they must kowtow to the liberal wing of their party to win the nomination. This fact prevents these candidates from promoting bold and innovative ideas. No profiles in courage there.

Tell us what you think

The Republican candidates continue their indecision and listening tours. This gives pause to why anyone would support them if they themselves are so ambivalent about their own intentions. What is required is a candidate with a record: one who has won tough campaigns, is know for making decisions on the merits and not party affiliation, and most importantly, is not part of the Hartford Capital Cabal that is responsible for the state's current mess.

Former Republican Congressman Chris Shays, who was dealt a dose of humility in 2006 when he was swept out in the Democratic landslide, meets the criteria. Shays' leadership and bipartisan pedigree fits well with what is needed in Hartford. Republican insiders would do themselves a favor to encourage a Shays' candidacy. But, were Shays to decide to run, he must announce he is running - not exploring - and outline his plan for what he would do if elected.

Connecticut voters are craving leadership; they just need someone to lead.

Do not delude yourself. This state is in the dumper and it's getting worse as our elected Nero's fiddle and the rest of us burn.

It's 281 days until we elect a new governor and it's getting hotter.

Ben Davol is a veteran of numerous local, state and federal political campaigns, including the 2000 Simmons' congressional race. Once a Republican organizer, he is now registered as unaffiliated.