Looking into the future of drug sales

What will happen when Pfizer Inc.'s cholesterol drug Lipitor goes off patent and a new world of medicines emerges in 2016? Well, if you believe in projections, only two conventional pills will be among the top 10 drugs worldwide and Pfizer will have only one of the best sellers - a medicine it didn't develop and shares with two other companies.

Projected drug sales compiled by EvaluatePharma and reported this week in the Pharmalot blog show Pfizer's top medicine (No. 3 worldwide) will be arthritis remedy Enbrel, which is co-marketed with Amgen except in Japan, where Takeda Pharmaceuticals sells the product.

The top drug, according to 2016 projections, will be arthritis medicine Humira, sold by Abbott Labs and Eisai, followed by Roche's cancer remedy Avastin.

While Pfizer will lose its accustomed spot atop the list of best-selling drugs, the company will still be the leading pharmaceutical company by total sales six years from now.

But just barely.

Pfizer's sales six years from now are projected at $47.1 billion, down from last year's revenues of $50 billion, but still slightly ahead of Merck & Co., Novartis and Roche, which were all bunched together between $44 billion and $46 billion in sales.

One of the most telling signs of the times for the pharmaceutical business: the Israel-based generics giant Teva was expected to crack the top 10 in drug sales for the first time.

Falling off the list were traditional big-name players Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly & Co. and Amgen.

l.howard@theday.com