Buscetto is no quitter, but likely, no winner

So rare are viable write-in candidacies, and rarer still successful ones, that no one has seriously studied the topic, a University of Connecticut political science professor told me.

"There aren't that many of them, and few of them win," said the professor, Vincent G. Moscardelli. "Since write-in candidates are virtually never successful, and since even the few successful write-in candidates do not comprise a significant portion of any collective decision-making body … it's hard to justify spending a lot of time collecting data on elections nationwide to get a sense of what, if any, systematic factors drive their success."

I called the UConn Department of Political Science to help me assess the write-in candidacy of New London City Councilor Michael Buscetto III in the race for mayor. Buscetto, who was the choice of the Democratic Town Committee, was soundly defeated in the Democratic primary Sept. 13 by Daryl Justin Finizio.

But Buscetto won't give up.

The lack of any studies aside, my gut feeling from a half-century of following politics is that Buscetto's write-in candidacy is the longest of long shots. Since Buscetto likes sports metaphors, this is akin to trying to throw a basketball through a hoop not from the opposite end of the court, but from the last row of the upper deck. In other words, it's not likely to happen.

(Those who know I recently turned 55 might challenge the half-century claim. But it's true; I was paying attention to politics by age 5. The Kennedy-Nixon debate was fascinating.)

But while a write-in victory is virtually impossible, it's not absolutely impossible. It has happened. In November 2010 incumbent Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska persuaded more than 101,000 Alaskans to write her name on their ballots. She beat Joe Miller, the tea-party backed conservative who had defeated her in the Republican primary.

Now before Buscetto backers get too excited that Mike will be the next Lisa Murkowski, I must point out that only one other U.S. senator, ever, has won a write-in campaign. That would be Strom Thurmond in a 1954 South Carolina election. Thurmond earned the wrath of the South Carolina Democratic establishment that year when he endorsed Republican Dwight Eisenhower, rather than liberal Democrat Adlai Stevenson, in the presidential race. So the South Carolina Democratic Party nominated someone else. Strom got the last laugh when he won his write-in campaign.

The problem, as Prof. Moscardelli sees it, is that voters have to be extremely motivated to go through the trouble of writing in a name for a candidate. And, of course, there has to be enough of them to win the election. In the case of Sen. Murkowski, she had strong support from Native-American Alaskans, as well as state teachers, firefighters and other government unions. Most were not Republicans and did not participate in the primary. They feared Murkowski's tea-party opponent, if elected, would not be bringing back much Washington bacon to "The Last Frontier" state, which is accustomed to receiving the most per capita government aid in the country. They were motivated.

In Thurmond's case, many of those South Carolinians felt he, far better than the party establishment, aligned with their political and social attitudes. Thurmond served as their senator for nearly 60 years.

If Buscetto's supporters have that kind of enthusiasm, where were they on primary day? The candidate argues that many were so sure of his victory they skipped the election. The more likely explanation is that the support was not there and will not magically appear Nov. 8. There is nothing to suggest Republicans and unaffiliated voters will be more excited about his candidacy than his fellow Democrats were.

Buscetto does have one thing going for him - the paper ballots. When voting machines were in use, a voter had to slide open a small panel and awkwardly write in the name. Now voters are handed a ballot and a marker. There is a designated spot to write in a candidate name and fill in the oval next to it. Simple.

"It's 10-times easier," said Barbara Major, a New London registrar of voters.

And unlike some states, Connecticut law is not persnickety, it requires only clear voter intent, not a precisely accurate spelling of the candidate's name.

Still, I just don't think the votes are there.

What Buscetto's write-in attempt will mean is late results on election night. The scanner machines will send every ballot marked with a write-in name to separate bins. When polls close they will have to be manually verified and counted.

If Buscetto does not win, who does he take votes from? My guess is almost equally from Finizio and the Republican candidate, City Councilor Rob Pero. Some Democrats, who would have voted for Finizio out of party loyalty, will now have another Democrat to choose from, albeit a politically disloyal one.

On the other hand, I also suspect many who see Finizio as too much of a newcomer to become mayor - he moved to the city in 2010 - will now divide their votes between Buscetto and Pero, to Pero's detriment.

Buscetto's write-in candidacy might also give hope to the other, underdog candidates by diluting the vote and lowering the number of votes needed to win. With three non-party endorsed candidates also in the race - Andrew Lockwood, Lori-Hopkins Cavanagh, and current ceremonial Mayor Martin T. Olsen Jr. - the winner could end up with a unusually low winning percentage, perhaps under 40 percent, not exactly a mandate.

Nothing, it seems, is ever simple in New London.

Paul Choiniere is the editorial page editor.