Raucous convention awaits GOP

For political junkies, this is the midwinter of our discontent. With the Florida Republican primary over with, there is more than a month to go before Super Tuesday, and the next debate is three weeks away. That means I have even less reason for my post-midnight groping for my iPhone to check the latest polls or campaign Twitter feeds.

So, where to turn for a fix? Here's one idea: Familiarize yourself with the Republican Party's rules governing delegate selection and convention procedure. Yes, I know: This seems like a subject better suited for C-Span 3. As it happens, though, these rules could determine the party's nominee and help shape the general election campaign.

First, the calendar. Although February offers little encouragement to Newt Gingrich, March holds promise with its turn to the South, Gingrich's strongest region. Voters in seven Southern states go to the polls in March.

Ron Paul's campaign, meanwhile, is paying special attention to February's caucus states, where intensity matters more than in primary states. (It takes real conviction to sit through hours of speech-making and ballot-counting, as opposed to popping in for 10 minutes to vote.) If Paul is interested in having an impact at the convention, winning a plurality of delegates in a few states could matter a great deal.

Second, the winner-take-all approach has largely been abandoned. What we have instead is a patchwork of rules: Most states allocate many of their delegates by congressional district; some have the top two finishers split those delegates; some give them all to the district winner, but only if he gets 50 percent or more; some use winner-take-all for each district.

The key: A candidate can pick up a fair share of delegates in many states by targeting his campaign on a district-by- district basis. This also means that, statistically at least, it will be harder for Mitt Romney to wrap up the nomination early.

Finally, the rules open the door to a contentious convention, if not a contested one.

Why? Because if there's sentiment for a fight over a platform plank, or whether convention rules outlaw winner-take-all voting, all the dissidents need is 25 percent of the votes in the respective committees - a mark the combined anti-Romney forces might well achieve. Further, if Gingrich wants his name put in nomination, all he needs is a plurality of delegates - not a majority - in five states. He already has that plurality in South Carolina and may yet pick up pluralities in four more states along the way.

If those adamantly opposed to Romney wind up with this kind of strength, it means they will have the power to start rules fights or demand the gold standard be included in the platform. They may be able to offer their own vice-presidential nominee or throw the timing of important speeches into chaos.

I may be getting ahead of myself; the convention isn't until August. Maybe it's better to focus on the debate in Arizona in three weeks. I wonder how long it will take for Gingrich to attack the moderator?

Jeff Greenfield is the host of "Need to Know" on PBS. He wrote this commentary for Bloomberg News.