Hartford - As state employee unions race to ratify their do-over concessions deal with the governor, new questions are arising about whether the agreement will meet its cost-savings goals.

Gov. Dannel P. Malloy's administration has projected $1.6 billion in savings over two years through the new labor deal it reached last month with the State Employees Bargaining Agent Coalition. The coalition of 15 unions representing about 45,000 state workers hopes to finish voting and ratify the deal by Aug. 18.

Once a deal is in place, Malloy says, he'll roll back and rescind the layoff notices issued to 3,000 or so workers in the past month.

But the latest analysis of the concessions deal by the state's nonpartisan Office of Fiscal Analysis warns that some of its projected savings could be "unachievable," while others may be "partially achievable" or are "uncertain."

The biggest questions concern the new "value-based" health and dental plan, which attempts to save $205 million over two years by offering incentives to employees to get regular checkups and tests - the goal being to avoid high future medical expenses.

But it could take more time before the state starts to reap savings from the plan.

"It is uncertain if any actual savings in health claims costs can be achieved in the first few years," the OFA analysis says. "Any savings would be offset by increased utilization for those services required by the value-based plan."

Altogether, those aspects of the concessions deemed uncertain and those deemed unachievable add up to more than $550 million over two years, according to data from the fiscal analysis.

And the office's director, Alan Calandro, said in a letter this week that the potential savings could diminish further because the ratification, if it happens, would occur weeks after the July 1 start of the fiscal year.

The Malloy administration remains confident about the deal's savings projections.

"This agreement and the health care and pension numbers contained within it have been independently verified by two actuaries," Colleen Flanagan, the governor's spokeswoman, said. "There's no question this agreement contains aggressive savings that are built into the plan, and Gov. Malloy and his administration fully expect to be held accountable to those numbers."

The fiscal analysis was done at the request of House Minority Leader Larry Cafero, R-Norwalk. Cafero said Tuesday that by his count, about $800 million of expected savings can't be fully verified by the fiscal analysts.

"What are we going to do if, in fact, these savings can't be achieved?" he said in an interview.

The Office of Fiscal Analysis offered a similar assessment in June regarding the first labor agreement between union leaders and Malloy, a Democrat.

That deal was nearly identical to the latest one. But it was voted down early this summer by the union rank-and-file. Union leaders have since loosened the threshold requirement for ratifying deals, lowering it to 50 percent of their membership from 80 percent.

The first deal, which garnered 57 percent of the vote, would have passed if the new rules had been in place.

A two-year wage freeze for all government employees has been a part of both deals. In exchange, union employees receive three subsequent years of 3 percent raises and four years of no layoffs..

Cafero was an early critic of the agreement's framework, which he characterizes as light on actual cuts and concessions and heavy on smoke-and-mirrors accounting. The GOP leader said Tuesday that he fears future tax increases if the savings in the deal don't materialize.

"We have a scenario playing out here where the employee concessions package, if approved, might only yield half of what it promises or less," Cafero said. "If that happens, what do we do? By provision of the [deal], we will be unable to make cuts because there will be guaranteed job security for these state employees for the next four years."

At least three unions had ratified the labor agreement as of Tuesday afternoon; none had yet to vote it down, according to reports.

The fiscal analysts also were uncertain whether the deal could save $180 million over two years by implementing more than 300 cost-saving suggestions from state employees and $90 million through technology initiatives such as more free, open-source software.

The analysts deemed it unachievable to wring $3 million in savings by giving incentive payments to workers who give up smoking and lose weight.

j.reindl@theday.com