Log In


Reset Password
  • MENU
    Day - Blogs
    Tuesday, April 16, 2024

    BRACKETOLOGY — we're the only ones crazy enough to dissect the playoff races for YOU

    Howdy,

    There’s just one good thing about this week’s end to our sweet, sexy football regular season — NO MORE FIGURING OUT PLAYOFF POINTS.

    Seventeen teams have (unofficially) qualified. Seventeen berths remain.

    We’re trying to give you BRACKETOLOGY one last time this year without looning out. Chances are that we will. We could use some time off. They give you free outfits at the psych ward.

    (We'll feel like the cats in the video below, too).

    You’re encouraged to follow Matt Fischer’s magical ROBOABACUS, which details every team’s potential playoff points as well as updates in Real Time. It idiot proofs the scenarios for us idjits.

    GROUND RULES:

    1. These are not to be taken as gospel. BRACKETOLOGY was done in less than 30 minutes.

    2. Just because we didn’t pick your team to qualify doesn’t mean we hate you. Dude, we don’t even know you.

    3. This doesn’t take into account the CRAZY that strikes every Thanksgrabbing week. There will be results and upsets that folks would consider unpossible. That’s what makes this week so great (albeit too short).

    Lastly, to quote David Letterman, “Let me caution you — this is an exhibition, not a competition. Please, no wagering.”

    Before we proceed, a quick explanation about “bonuses:”

    • A team receives 10 points for every win and five points for each tie earned by any opponent it beat.

    • A team receives five points for each victory and 2.5 points for each tie earned by an opponent it tied.

    Remember, kids — the top eight teams in each division qualify, and then are broken in half based on enrollment.

    CLASS LL

    IN: Newtown (10-0), Southington (9-0), and Shelton (10-0).

    These three will likely play host to semifinals on Saturday afternoon, Dec. 6.

    Shelton will be the Class LL-Small. Odds are that it’ll be joined by Newtown, while Southington will be in Class LL-Large.

    WIN-AND-IN: McMahon (7-1), and Cheshire (8-2).

    The Senators play at Norwalk (4-6) on Thanksgrabbing.

    Cheshire would clinch with a win over Southington.

    FIGHT-FIGHT-FIGHT-FIGHT: Hall (8-2), Xavier (7-3), Fairfield Prep (7-3), Greenwich (7-3), Glastonbury (8-3), Bristol Central (7-2), Norwich Free Academy (6-2), New Britain (7-3) and Danbury (7-3).

    What a fabulous disaster.

    These nine could all finish within 13 points of one another if they all win out (Hall, Glastonbury and Xavier finished regular season play).

    It gets better — there’s a chance that no one qualifies until Thanksgrabbing afternoon.

    Hall is almost there and needs just one of its three bonuses — Newington (5-5) over Wethersfield (10-0), Hartford Public (5-5) over winless Weaver, or Rockville (1-9) over winless South Windsor.

    It’s unpossible to list what the others need to happen, so let’s approach it as such:

    Xavier

    Points: 1,070

    Bonuses: 30.

    High: 110.

    Low: 107.

    Fairfield Prep

    Points: 1,040.

    Plays: vs. West Haven (5-5).

    Bonuses: 50.

    High with a win: 112.73.

    Low with a win: 108.18.

    High with a loss: 99.09.

    Low with a loss: 94.55.

    Greenwich

    Points: 1,010.

    Plays: Staples (6-4).

    High with a win: 112.73.

    Low with a win: 106.36.

    High with a win: 98.18.

    Low with a win: 91.82.

    Glastonbury

    Points: 1,120.

    Bonuses: 50.

    High: 106.36.

    Low: 101.82.

    The following must win and get help:

    Bristol Central

    Points: 900.

    Plays: vs. Bristol Eastern (6-4).

    Bonuses: 50.

    High: 111.

    Low: 106.

    NFA

    Points: 810.

    Plays: New London (7-2).

    Bonuses: 40.

    High: 113.33.

    Low: 108.89.

    New Britain

    Points: 970.

    Plays: Berlin (10-0).

    Bonuses: 20.

    High: 108.18.

    Low: 106.36.

    Danbury

    Points: 960.

    Plays: Ridgefield (2-8).

    Bonuses: 50.

    High: 102.73.

    Low: 98.18.

    Got all of that? No? Neither do we.

    GRANDE DIVISION FORECAST: No. 1 Southington (10-0) vs. No. 4 Greenwich (8-3); No. 2 NFA (7-2) vs. No. 3 Fairfield Prep (8-3).

    PEQUEÑO DIVISION FORECAST: No. 1 Newtown (11-0) vs. No. 4 Hall (8-2); No. 2 Shelton (11-0) vs. No. 3 McMahon (8-2).

    • • • •

    CLASS L

    IN: New Canaan (9-0), Windsor (9-0), Darien (10-0), Wethersfield (10-0), Naugatuck (9-1), and Middletown (8-1).

    The FCIAC title game between Darien and New Canaan is the state’s biggest game. The winner gets the title and the top seed in Class L-Large.

    Windsor has already clinched the top seed in Class L-Small.

    FIGHT-FIGHT-FIGHT-FIGHT: Notre Dame-West Haven (7-2), North Haven (8-1), and Masuk (7-3).

    ND and North Haven are the favorites in their respective Thanksgrabbing games. ND plays Hamden (2-8) in the annual Green Bowl. North Haven plays host to Amity (3-8).

    Masuk plays at Newtown on Thanksgrabbing Eve.

    A win gets ND to 1,220 points.

    A win gets North Haven to 1,210.

    A win gets Masuk to 1,240.

    Should all win, then BRING ON THE BONUSES.

    ND has a maximum of 60 bonus points, North Haven 40 and Masuk 30.

    Put it this way — if Masuk wins, then North Haven is in trouble.

    SEND HELP: Windsor Locks/Suffield/East Granby (7-3), and Platt (7-3).

    All three need a win, and for two of the three to lose — Masuk, North Haven or Notre Dame.

    MOOT POINT: Wilbur Cross (6-4).

    GRANDE DIVISION FORECAST: No. 1 New Canaan (10-0) vs. 4 Naugatuck (9-2); No. 2 Darien (10-1) vs. No. 3 Wethersfield (11-0).

    PEQUEÑO DIVISION FORECAST: No. 1 Windsor (10-0) vs. No. 4 North Haven (9-2); No. 2 Middletown (8-2) vs. No. 3 Notre Dame-West Haven (8-3).

    • • • •

    CLASS M

    IN: Berlin (10-0), Ledyard (10-0), Brookfield (10-1), St. Joseph (8-2), and Ellington/Somers (8-2), Wolcott (8-2).

    The division almost fell into place this weekend.

    Berlin has earned the top seed in Class M-Large. Brookfield is No. 2.

    Ledyard is the top seed in Class M-Small and will be joined by St. Joseph, Ellington/Somers and Wolcott.

    WIN-AND-IN: New London (7-2), and Bethel (7-3).

    New London plays NFA on Thanksgrabbing. Bethel plays at Brookfield that day. Not easy.

    New London could lose and still qualify, though. It could earn up to 70 in bonus points to push it into states. More on that in a second.

    SEND HELP: Cheney Tech (8-3), and Abbott Tech/Immaculate (6-3).

    Cheney completed its regular season and have four bonuses. It’s average will be anywhere between 97.27 and 100.91.

    Abbott Tech/Immaculate plays at Wolcott Tech (1-9). A win gets it to 97.27 and 99.09, depending on its two bonuses.

    Here's where it gets fun IF New London loses.

    Cheney will likely get just two of its four bonuses as the odds are greatly against Wolcott Tech beating AT/I, and St. Bernard/Norwich Tech beating Montville.

    AT/I needs a SB/NT win, too.

    The tipping point could be whoever wins the Thanksgrabbing's game between Killingly (1-9) and Quinebaug Valley (5-5). 

    AT/I and Cheney both need a Quinebaug win.

    The Whalers need Killingly to pull through.

    GRANDE DIVISION FORECAST: No. 1 Berlin (11-0) vs. No. 4 Cheney Tech (8-3); No. 2 Brookfield (10-1) vs. No. 3 New London (7-3).

    PEQUEÑO DIVISION FORECAST: No. 1 Ledyard (11-0) vs. No. 4 Wolcott (9-2); No. 2 St. Joseph (9-2) vs. No. 3 Ellington/Somers (9-2).

    • • • •

    CLASS S

    IN: Valley Regional/Old Lyme (10-0), and Ansonia (9-1).

    Both would earn a home semifinal with a win. VR/OL plays host to Haddam-Killingworth (4-6) on TUESDAY (moved up a day due to weather panic). Ansonia plays host to Naugy in The Valley's Granddaddy rivalry of them all.

    WIN-AND-IN: Northwest Catholic (9-1), Canton (9-1), Hartford Capital/Achievement First (9-1), Windham (8-1), North Branford (9-1), Plainfield (9-1) and Prince Tech (7-2).

    Capital Prep qualifies with a win over Prince Tech on Thanksgrabbing Eve. It would also nearly fill the entire bracket as Northwest Catholic, Windham, Canton and North Branford would all earn berths.

    Now, if Prince wins then Northwest, Windham, Canton and North Branford all have to play their way in. North Branford plays host to Hyde (5-5) on Thanksgrabbing Eve. The rest play on Thanksgrabbing.

    Northwest plays host to Rocky Hill (5-5).

    Canton plays host to Granby (7-3).

    Windham's berth is as close as a sure-thing gets as it plays at Woodstock Academy (1-9).

    Plainfield plays host to Griswold (5-5). Plainfield will also get incessant reminders that it’s lost 11 straight years to Griswold.

    SEND HELP: Bullard-Havens (8-2), Derby (7-3), and Coginchaug (8-2).

    All need to win and send Griswold positive energy.

    B-H plays at winless Bassick on Tuesday.

    Derby plays at unbeaten Shelton on Thanksgrabbing.

    Coginchaug plays host to Cromwell (6-4) on Thanksgrabbing.

    MOOT POINT: Morgan (7-3).

    The Huskies max average is 111.82 points with a win over winless Old Saybrook/Westbrook on Thanksgrabbing. Here’s the minimum point average for the following teams if they all lost:

    Plainfield: 110.91

    Prince: 110.

    Bullard-Havens: 109.9.

    Morgan needs a miracle.

    GRANDE DIVISION FORECAST: No. 1 Valley Regional/Old Lyme (11-0) vs. No. 4 Plainfield (10-1); No. 2 Ansonia (10-1) vs. No. 3 Windham (9-1).

    PEQUEÑO DIVISION FORECAST: No. 1 Northwest Catholic (10-1) vs. No. 4 North Branford (10-1); No. 2 Hartford Capital/Achievement First (10-1) vs. No. 3 Canton (10-1).

    • • • •

    Torrington and Crosby were historically offensive Friday night.

    The Red Raiders and Bulldogs combined for 18 touchdowns in Torrington’s 75-57 win.

    The 132 combined points made it the second-highest scoring game in state history. It was one point off the state record, set during St. Joseph’s 84-49 win over Ledyard in the Class M quarterfinals.

    Torrington scored four touchdowns for 31 points in the second quarter alone. The Bulldogs scored twice that quarter, too.

    The Red Raiders attempted just one pass (HOORAY) and finished with two 200-yard rushers. Newton Frias had 22 carries for 249 yards and five touchdowns. Tyler Marens ran 18 times for 279 yards and three touchdowns.

    Chris Mathews ran 32 times for 350 yards and four touchdowns for Crosby.

    • • • •

    Oxford recovered four fumbles, blocked two punts and had an interception in Thursday’s 34-14 win over Wilby. … Jaylen Kelley completed nine of 16 passes for 151 yards and three touchdowns and scored on 1-yard run as Seymour crushed Watertown on Thursday, 53-7. … Tyler Ballard scored on interception returns of 60 and 35 yards in Plainfield’s 47-7 win over Woodstock Academy on Thursday.

    Keyion Dixon was involved in six of Glastonbury’s eight touchdowns during its 55-14 thrashing of Simsbury on Friday night. Dixon ran eight times for 143 yards and four touchdowns and completed all five of his passes for 96 yards and two scores. … Derby’s Ben Slowik had three interceptions, a fumble recovery, 15 tackles and caught a 68-yard touchdown as the Red Raiders edged Woodland on Friday, 20-19. … Rafael Lebron was 12-for-17 passing for 194 yards and three touchdowns and scored on a 1-yard run as Cheney Tech blitzed St. Bernard/Norwich Tech on Friday night, 52-26.

    Jason Bradley completed 13 of 26 passes for 309 yards and six touchdowns as Naugatuck downed St. Paul on Friday, 56-41. Antoine Sistrunk ran 11 times for 147 yards and caught a 26-yard touchdown for Naugy and Bryan Coney had five catches for 119 yards and three scores. Eli Parks ran 38 times for 326 yards and four touchdowns for the Falcons.

    Montville’s Jon McCray had seven catches for 187 yards and two touchdowns and added two interceptions in Friday’s 40-19 win over Fitch. Tyler Quidgeon completed 10 of 17 passes for 234 yards and four touchdowns. … Andre Brackett Jr. ran six times for 100 yards and two touchdowns and scored on a 42-yard catch and a 40-yard interception return as East Catholic crushed Bulkeley/Hartford Magnet on Friday, 62-28. Luke Townsend added 20 carries for 207 yards and three scores.

    • • • •

    Thanks for reading. More soon.

    Vaya con dios.

    Comment threads are monitored for 48 hours after publication and then closed.