Groton - With the emphatic defeat of the $133 million Phase II schools facilities program the school district's future rests, for the time being, in the hands of the Representative Town Meeting, the last obstacle to the school budget's $1.5 million increase over the district's current spending plan.

Superintendent of Schools Paul Kadri said Tuesday that the simplest scenario is that the RTM would leave intact the $74.2 million school budget that the town council approved. In the council's $120 million budget proposal, the school district's increase is the dominant number driving a 1.18 mill tax rate increase. Kadri said if the $74.2 million budget is untouched, the district would have the money it needs for the next school year.

In that case, "all three middle school would stay open next year," Kadri said. "Of course, taxes will have go up. And we have to think about next year's deficit, because I would have to replace teachers that took the early retirement."

Phase II would have eliminated two middle schools, changed grade level configurations and added early education programs. Some teachers would not have been replaced until construction projects were completed and new educational programs were put in place.

Kadri also noted that several teaching positions in the 2011-12 budget are being paid for with $1.4 million in federal stimulus money. Because there will be no stimulus money the following year, the funds would have to come from town coffers, he said.

"I would also have to address the racial imbalance we have," Kadri said. "That waiver went away with the vote. I think I have to go to the state next month with a plan to address that."

If the RTM demands a zero budget increase, Kadri said, changes would be made.

"There is no way we can get to zero without cutting programs or consolidating," he said.

Consolidating means closing Fitch Middle School, which is the oldest and the largest of the three middle schools, he said. Because Fitch is the largest, students from West Side and Cutler would go there while those schools are renovated one at a time.

"That would last about four or five years," he said.

Closing one middle school would save the town $2.7 million per year, Kadri said.

According to the state, many Groton children enter the schools less prepared than those in similar school districts, and the town spends a substantial amount of money on remedial training. He said he thinks the school board and the town council have expressed concern about eliminating full-day kindergarten, and they would probably prefer the consolidation option.

The RTM will review the school budget next Wednesday. "Until then," Kadri said, "there's not much for the school board to do other than make it clear to the public the set of paths we will be on depending on what happens that night. Things could be very different."

c.potter@theday.com