Hartford - With the federal government on course for a possible shutdown at midnight tonight, state government officials insist that Connecticut could weather such a disruption for two, maybe three weeks.

After that, the prognosis is murky.

"The state is in fine shape for two to three weeks, and some agencies probably longer," Alvin Wilson, director of operations for Gov. Dannel P. Malloy, said Thursday.

In Washington, the Republican-led U.S. House approved a stopgap measure in the early afternoon that would keep the government open for another week. But President Obama vowed to veto the bill, which would have cut an additional $12 billion in spending, funded the Pentagon through September and included several controversial "riders," such as a ban on subsidizing abortions in the District of Columbia.

All of Connecticut's five Democratic representatives voted against the bill, including U.S. Rep. Joe Courtney, D-2nd District, who last month broke party lines to vote with Republicans on the spending measure that expires tonight.

Courtney said by phone that he couldn't support the Republicans' latest bill, largely because of the policy riders and the president's intent to veto it.

"The stuff that this thing was loaded up with was just some tea party wish list," Courtney said.

"I am the eternal optimist," he added, saying that he was "prepared to support a measure that, in my opinion at the end of the day, will probably require a bipartisan vote in the House like the last [stopgap measure]," Courtney said. Courtney and fellow Connecticut U.S. Reps. Christopher Murphy, D-5th, and Jim Himes, D-4th, voted with Republicans for the March 15 spending bill, which Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi opposed.

With that measure soon to expire, Malloy this week set up a task force to forecast the effects on the state of a longer-term federal shutdown and to outline contingency plans. Wilson, a member of the group, said he expects their first report to be ready Monday.

"We still need to collect some information for the treasurer to assess cash flow - if there would be any potential cash flow issues," Wilson said.

The last government shutdown lasted 21 full days from Dec. 15, 1995, to Jan. 6, 1996. Conventional political wisdom holds that the shutdown backfired for the GOP and buoyed Democrats and then-President Bill Clinton in the fall elections.

Yet Christopher Healy, chairman of the Connecticut Republican Party, said he doesn't think Republicans will become the voters' scapegoats if a shutdown happens again.

He noted that the nation's economy and debt load are significantly worse now than in the mid-1990s, and that the issue of cutting spending appears to be resonating with the electorate.

There is also a difference between the personality of the current House Speaker and that of the Republican in charge the last time the federal government closed for business.

"John Boehner is a reasonable, solid guy," Healy said. "He's not the kind of guy who is easily caricatured, as, unfortunately, Newt Gingrich was."

The state Republican chairman thinks that this time, the public would blame the "whole political class" if a shutdown occurs.

But Nancy DiNardo, chairwoman of the state Democratic Party, said she thinks Republicans will suffer political fallout similar to the 1995-96 episode if another shutdown happens. She will blame the GOP for kowtowing to hard-line Tea Party activists.

"It's unfortunate that the Republican Party has decided to cater to each and every demand of the tea party," she said.

But Healy said he doesn't buy the notion that Tea Party principles are all fringe ideas.

"What the tea party is pushing for, most Americans share that sentiment in terms of spending and taxation," Healy said.

Bud Fay, 84, of Waterford, has been sharing that sentiment for months. An organizer of the Connecticut Second District Tea Party Patriots, Fay said he believes that Republicans are asking for reasonable budget cuts that most Americans want, and that the Republicans should choose principles over compromise, even as a shutdown looms.

"The Republican Party, with a nudge from the Tea Party, should stand firm," Fay said.

j.reindl@theday.com