Former U.S. ambassador to Israel talks about Iran
New London — Martin Indyk — former U.S. ambassador to Israel and current foreign policy analyst at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. — explained his take Sunday on what he called “uncharted territory” in United States-Israel relations to a crowd at Congregation Beth El.
“I’ve lived and breathed the U.S.-Israel relationship for the past 35 years,” Indyk said. “I have never experienced a situation like the one that we are in today.”
He said a primary difference is that Israel has turned into a “political football.”
“I think it is, above all, essential to find a way to restore Israel as a bipartisan issue in American politics,” Indyk said. “That’s the foundation of the relationship and that is what is now shaking the relationship.”
Indyk then turned to the potential effects of the ongoing, multi-country nuclear talks with Iran, breaking down the deal as it stands right now.
He listed some of the deal’s parameters, which work to curb Tehran’s nuclear program and provide for regular inspections, as advantages. Indyk even considered the fact that with this deal, Iran at any given moment will be one year from a nuclear bomb, a positive.
“That one-year timeframe is judged to be sufficient to re-impose sanctions … or to use force if necessary if Iran violates the agreement,” Indyk said. “It’s important in that context to understand that, today, they are in effect two to three months from taking the material, enriching it and turning it into a bomb.”
He noted the deal’s disadvantages, too. One, he said, was that a lift in sanctions will give Iran a lot more money to spend on the “troublemaking they’ve been engaged in for many years.”
But the deal’s timeframe is more problematic, he said.
“This agreement will end in a variable timetable,” Indyk said, explaining that it likely will end completely in about 15 years. “In year 13, 14 or 15, Iran again will be two or three months from a bomb, with … more sophisticated centrifuges operating without constraints.”
As such, he called the potential deal — its final details supposed to be worked out by June 30 — a “tough decision.”
“Our choice is between a nuclear-free Iran for 13, 15 years with no sanctions, and Iran, two to three months from a bomb with eroding sanctions,” Indyk said.
In his opinion, the former still is more ideal, as long as parameters such as when sanctions will be lifted and how inspections will be carried out are worked out. But, he said, the United States shouldn’t stop at just the deal.
“What we have to have is a broad strategy for the region … that uses those 13 to 15 years of a nuclear-free Iran to the maximum effect,” he said, suggesting the United States should work with its traditional allies to do so.
Indyk also said that, because Israel could be vulnerable once the deal expires, the United States should offer increased funding to help Israel continue building a weapons system meant to protect the country from incoming missiles.
“It would be foolish to claim that this is a great deal,” Indyk said. “It is necessarily a compromise. Nobody in an agreement is going to get everything they want.”
Steve Daren, past president of the congregation, said the congregation brought Indyk to speak in part because of his honesty.
“I think that there’s so much going on and there’s so much confusion with what the relationship with Israel and the United States is,” Daren said. “We didn’t just bring someone who was going to just … say everything is wonderful.”
Daniel Bendor, vice president of the Jewish Federation of Eastern Connecticut, called Indyk “impressively informative.”
“I have been reading about the Middle East for a little over 50 years … and I still learned things tonight that I didn’t know,” Bendor said. “It’s remarkable. This man was an ambassador to Israel and we got him in southeastern Connecticut to come give a presentation.”
Besides serving as U.S. ambassador to Israel from 1995-1997 and 2000-2001. He also served as assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs, 1997-2000, and as special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, 2013-2014.
Twitter: @LindsayABoyle
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