BRACKETOLOGY REDUX: The Berlin Effect
So the CIAC ruled on Le Affaire Berlin on Wednesday and clubbed the program like an arcade Whac-A-Mole.
The CIAC stripped the Redcoats of all their wins, banned them from the postseason (they would’ve qualified with a win this Friday over, of all teams, New Britain), and fined them $4,000 ($1K for each ineligible player), among other penalties.
Well then.
(Former New Britain High star and city youth coach Justice Hairston held nothing back in an interview with David Glovach of the New Britain Herald. Quite a read).
Berlin forfeiting its seven wins directly affects the playoffs. Here are the winners and losers of The Berlin Effect.
WINNER: Bloomfield. The Warhawks gained 160 points and moved from fourth to second in Class S. They’d earn no worse than the the two seed with a victory over winless Fermi on Friday and earning one of their seven bonus (such as Avon over Simsbury next Tuesday).
Or maybe not — WFSB's John Holt reported Wednesday that the CIAC was investigating the eligibility of Bloomfield's Rayshawn Phillips, who transferred in this season after quarterbacking Cap/First to a state title last year. Holt tweeted that Bloomfield was confident that no rules were broken.
Nothing is simple this season.
WINNER: East Catholic. The Eagles gained an extra 150 points and went from no-chance-in-hell to eighth in the Class S rankings. The simplest formula for them to clinch a berth is to beat Northwest Catholic (4-5) on Thanksgrabbing Eve and earn two of its seven bonuses.
WINNER: East Haven. It moved from ninth to eighth thanks to Berlin’s postseason ban. They’d qualify for states with a win over bitter rival Branford (4-5) on Thanksgrabbing.
WINNER: Middletown. It has a little more breathing room between it and Avon for a Class L berth.
LOSER: Avon. It only lost 20 points — it lost all its bonuses from beating the Redcoats, but gained 50 back from the teams it beat that got points via Berlin's forfeits. The problem is that the race for the final two spots is so close that 20 points is a huge loss. The Falcons are ninth in L and would have a minimum of 1,040 points with a win over Simsbury (1-8). THey have the potential to earn seven bonuses. Middletown, which is eighth, would have a minimum of 1,060 if it lost to unbeaten Windsor on Thanksgrabbing Eve. It would also have the chance to earn 60 bonuses. It just so happens that three of Avon's bonuses involve teams that the Blue Dragons need to lose to earn their bonuses.
LOSER: Rocky Hill. East Catholic moved ahead of it into eighth in Class S. Worse, all five of Rocky Hill’s bonuses are the same as the Eagles’. The Terriers can’t pass the latter unless East Catholic loses. The only other ways Rocky Hill could qualify is with a win over fellow Class S contender Cromwell/Portland on Thanksgrabbing and a Capital Prep/Achievement First loss to Cheney Tech this Saturday, or, if Cap/First won, beat it on bonuses.
LOSER: Granby. The Bears were second in Class S and would’ve been a top two seed by beating winless Canton on Thanksgrabbing Eve. Bloomfield gaining 160 points gives it a 50 point lead over the Bears. It'll be close to clinching a top two seed with a win, thus denying Granby a home semifinal if both teams won their quarterfinals.
Got all that?
And now, a revised BRACKETOLOGY.
GROUND RULES:
1. These are not to be taken as gospel. The forecast was done over a few hours and, because it involved the maths, causes blackouts among the Polecat staff.
2. Just because we didn’t pick your team to qualify doesn’t mean we hate you. Hell, we don’t even KNOW you. Should you choose to believe that this is the worst insult you’ve ever suffered, use it as motivation, and go on to win a state title, then we expect a free meal at your year-end banquet for providing the extra incentive you needed.
3. We plan on being wrong on about half of these and, in fact, look forward to it. To err is human. To mock one’s self is divine.
Quote David Letterman, “This is an exhibition, not a competition. Please, no wagering.”
Before we proceed, a quick explanation about “bonuses:”
• A team receives 10 points for every win and five points for each tie earned by any opponent it beat.
Remember, kids — the top eight teams in each division qualify.
The higher seeds get to host both a quarterfinal (Tuesday, Dec. 1) and semifinal (Monday, Dec. 7).
The finals will be played on Saturday, Dec. 13 at a site to be determined. The CIAC's football packet said that games may be held on Friday, Dec. 12, but we're told that's not likely as the athletes would get only three daze of rest.
New Britain, Trumbull and West Haven are three of the potential championship sites (please West Haven please West Haven please West Haven please West Haven).
We implore you to follow the ROBOABACUS built by Matt Fischer, the CIAC's Director of Technology Services and Black Ops. It updates the playoff races in real-time and makes you more attractive to mates.
CLASS LL
IN: Shelton (9-0), Southington (9-0), Darien (8-0), Newtown (8-1), and Glastonbury (8-1).
The first four teams earn home quarterfinals with a win.
Shelton plays at Derby (6-3) on Thanksgrabbing. The Gaels haven't lost to the latter since 2002.
Southington plays at Cheshire (4-5) on Thanksgrabbing.
Darien plays unbeaten New Canaan in the annual Thanksgrabbing 1-Percent Bowl. It will serve as the FCIAC Championship game. GO TO THIS GAME if your alma mater doesn't play on the holiday.
Newtown plays at Masuk (6-3) on Thanksgrabbing Eve.
Glastonbury has finished the regular season.
WIN OUT, COUNT BONUSES: Ridgefield (6-2), Conard (7-2), Staples (6-2) and West Haven (6-3).
This could be fun as the four are so close in average points.
Ridgefield plays host to one-win Danbury on Thanksgrabbing Eve. Playing a one-win team is as much a curse as it is a blessing as it gives the Tigers the lowest ceiling of the four. It has four bonuses, none of them are mortal locks. Among them are one-win Bridgeport Central over unbeaten Harding. Not good.
The Chieftains play host to hated West Hartford rival Hall (5-4) on Saturday. A win gives it 1,040 points. It has three bonuses, two of which are REAL BAD — Newington (2-7) over Wethersfield (8-1), and Simsbury (1-8) over Avon (7-2). Conard's other bonus is New Britain (5-4) over Berlin (7-2), so it really needs New Britain to knock off Berlin on Friday.
Staples plays host to Greenwich (4-5) on Thanksgrabbing. The Wreckers would average 101.1 with a win. They have the highest ceiling of the four as they'd average 107.78 if they collect all six bonuses.
West Haven plays at Fairfield Prep (5-4) on Thanksgrabbing. Its floor is 1,020 with a win. It tops out at 1,050 with three bonuses. Two of those bonuses stink — Hamden (1-8) over Notre Dame of West Haven (7-2), and Cheshire over Southington.
HELP: Xavier (6-4), Norwich Free Academy (5-4), and Trumbull (5-3).
We're going to pass on explaining what help these three need.
THE EIGHT: No. 1 Darien (9-0) vs. No. 8 West Haven (7-3); No. 2 Shelton (10-0) vs. No. 7 Staples (7-2); No. 3 Southington (10-0) vs. No. 6 Conard (8-2) (THE REMATCHENING); No. 4 Newtown (9-1) vs. No. 5 Glastonbury (8-1).
Polecat staff projects an LUDICROUS finish for the top three seeds. Darien edges Shelton and Southington for the top spot with a 143.3 average. The Gaels and Blue Knights finish with 1,430 points, with Shelton earning the second seed based on tiebreakers. The staff hopes they're right as they don't want to see Darien and Southington meet unless its the fi
CLASS L
IN: North Haven (9-0), Harding (9-0), New Canaan (8-0), Windsor (9-0), Torrington (8-1), and Wethersfield (8-1).
North Haven plays at Amity (2-7) on Thanksgrabbing. It earns a home quarterfinal with a win, two of its three bonuses, a loss by Harding, New Canaan, Windsor or Torrington, or Torrington losing two of its six bonuses.
Harding earns a home quarterfinal with a win over Bridgeport Central (1-8) on Thanksgrabbing.
New Canaan gets a home quarterfinal with a win.
Windsor gets a home quarterfinal with a win over Middletown (7-2) on Thanksgrabbing Eve.
Torrington would get a home quarterfinal with a win over Watertown (4-5) and a loss by one of the above four.
Wethersfield would play a home quarterfinal with a win over Newington, and two of the aforementioned five teams losing (it has a very slim chance to out-point Torrington, however).
WIN-AND-IN: Notre Dame-West Haven (7-2), and Middletown (8-1).
ND plays one-win Hamden in the Green Bowl on Thanksgrabbing.
Both aren't cooked if they lost either, which will discuss in a moment.
HELP: Avon (7-2).
The Falcons' best shot is to win and for ND and Middletown to both lose, and that doesn't even guarantee them a berth.
ND's minimum with a loss is 1,080. It has a chance at four bonuses (40 points), but would lose one if Hillhouse beat Wilbur Cross.
Middletown's minimum with a loss is 1,060. It could max out at 1,120 if it earned its six bonuses.
Avon's minimum with a win is 1,040 with a potential to max out at 1,110 with seven bonuses. That's unpossible when one involves winless Fermi beating Bloomfield.
As mentioned before, three of Avon's bonuses involve teams that Middletown needs to lose.
Middletown needs South Windsor over Rockville, E.O. Smith over Tolland, and Farmington over Plainville.
Avon needs Rockville, Tolland, and Plainville.
DONEZO: Hillhouse (7-2).
Hillhouse's minimum is 1,030 with three bonuses. It cannot catch ND under any circumstances. All of its bonuses would give it 1,060 to tie Middletown's minimum. Middletown, however, has an 82-74 point edge in tiebreaker points (a team earns two points for every win by an opponent, no matter whether it won or lost).
The Acs, therefore, all mathematically alive in the strictest sense of the term.
THE EIGHT: No. 1 North Haven (10-0) vs. No. 8 Middletown (8-2); No. 2 Harding (10-0) vs. No. 7 Notre Dame-West Haven (8-2); No. 3 Windsor (10-0) vs. No. 6 New Canaan (8-1) (YOWZAH); No. 4 Torrington (9-1) vs. No. 5 Wethersfield (9-1).
CLASS M
IN: Killingly (8-1), New Fairfield (8-1), the Abbott Tech/Immaculate UNITED (8-1), Ledyard (8-1), and Brookfield (7-2).
Killingly and New Fairfield would earn the top two seeds with wins.
Killingly plays host to Quinebaug Valley (6-3) on Thanksgrabbing.
New Fairfield plays at New Milford (4-5) on Thanksgrabbing.
AT/I finished its regular season on Saturday. It has three bonuses and will average between 131.11-127.78.
Ledyard plays host to Fitch (5-4) on Thanksgrabbing. It has five bonuses, so it would finish between 1,340-1,290 with a win.
Brookfield plays at Bethel (2-7) on Thanksgrabbing. It has three bonuses and would finish between 1,240-1,210 with a win.
WIN-AND-IN: Bacon Academy (7-1), St. Joseph (6-2), and East Haven (7-2).
Bacon plays at Griswold (5-3) on Friday and plays host to one-win RHAM on Thanksgrabbing. Two wins gives it the opportunity to play host to a quarterfinal at a neutral site (its field doesn't have permanent lights). The Bobcats would finish between 1,320-1,280 points depending on its four bonuses.
St. Joseph plays host to Trumbull (5-3) on Thanksgrabbing.
East Haven plays at Branford (4-5) on Thanksgrabbing.
HELP: Stratford (6-3), Foran (6-3), Hyde/Career/Whitney Tech (6-3), and Lewis Mills (5-3).
Stratford plays host to Bunnell (4-5) on Thanksgrabbing. It gets to 970 with a win and 1,010 with five bonuses.
Foran plays at one-win Law on Thanksgrabbing. It would have 940 with a win, and 960 with two bonuses.
H/C/W plays host to North Branford (5-4) on Thanksgrabbing Eve. It has three bonuses and could finish between 970-940 with a win.
Lewis Mills plays at Stafford/East Windsor/Somers (3-5) on Friday, and home against Nonnewaug (5-4) on Thanksgrabbing. Two wins gives Mills an 850 minimum. Six bonuses pushes it to 910.
THE EIGHT: No. 1 Killingly (9-1) vs. No. 8 East Haven (8-2); No. 2 New Fairfield (9-1) vs. No. 7 St. Joseph (7-2); No. 3 Bacon Academy (9-1) vs. No. 6 Brookfield (8-2); No. 4 Ledyard (9-1) vs. No. 5 Abbott Tech/Immaculate (8-1).
CLASS S
IN: Ansonia (9-0), Bloomfield (9-0), Granby (9-0), and Trinity Catholic (7-1).
Ansonia clinches a home quarterfinal with a win. Add in one of its five bonuses and it’s the top seed.
Bloomfield would clinch the second seed with a win and one bonus.
Granby and Trinity earn the other two top seeds with wins.
Granby plays host to winless Canton on Thanksgrabbing Eve.
Trinity plays at Wilton (3-5) on Thanksgrabbing.
WIN-AND-IN: Morgan (8-1), Seymour (8-1), Cromwell/Portland (8-1)
Morgan plays at Old Saybrook/Westbrook (6-3) on Thanksgrabbing.
Seymour plays host to Woodland (7-2) on Thanksgrabbing Eve. The game is nearly a Class S qualifier (Woodland isn't guaranteed a berth with a win).
Cromwell/Portland plays at Rocky Hill on Thanksgrabbing. It's nearly a Class S qualifier, too (Rocky Hill is not guaranteed a berth with a win).
WIN, COUNT BONUSES: East Catholic, Rocky Hill (7-2), Capital Prep/Achievement First (6-2), and Woodland (7-2).
We covered East Catholic and Rocky Hill.
Cap/First finishes its regular season on Friday at home against Cheney Tech (4-5). Its minimum average with a win is 113.33. Its four bonuses bumps its average to 117.78.
Cap/First might benefit from a Woodland win more than the Woodland would. The Hawks have five bonuses and could average between 119-114 with a win, so it would be in a points race with Cap/First.
HELP: Ellington (6-2), Windham (7-2), Wolcott (6-3), Derby (6-3), Old Saybrook/Westbrook, and Griswold.
We're going to skip these six as they're such long shots. We'll go over it next week. Promise.
THE EIGHT: No. 1 Ansonia (10-0) vs. No. 8 Cap/First (8-1); No. 2 Bloomfield (9-1) vs. No. 7 East Catholic (8-2); No. 3 Granby (9-1) vs. No. 5 Morgan (9-1); No. 4 Trinity Catholic (8-1) vs. No. 5 Seymour (9-1).
• • • •
PROGRAMMMING NOTE — The Day of New London Top 10 state coaches' poll will take next week off. Bacon and Conard are the only teams receiving votes that play this weekend, so there's not much reason to vote.
The Day coaches' poll returns on Monday, Nov. 30.
• • • •
Thanks for reading. More soon.
Vaya con dios....
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