A day late, but never short (especially with you), BRACKETLOGY
Howdy,
First things first, NON-FOOTBALL RELATED MESSAGE: see that quote atop this here blog. Read it.
No, we don't care if you read it already. Read it again. And then learn and master it because most of us have really, REALLY been sucking at it lately.
Alright then. Back to bidness.
Pardon the delay in BRACKETOLOGY. Sleeping for days while shivering underneath the covers hurts production.
GROUND RULES
1. We’re going to be wrong about a bunch of these predictions and it’s cool. Surprises are often FUN!
2. Just because we didn’t pick your team to qualify doesn’t mean we hate you. Hell, we DON'T EVEN KNOW YOU, MAN. Should you choose to believe us not picking you to win states is the worst insult you’ve ever suffered, then use it as motivation and to win said state title. That written, you dang well better give us an invitation and free meal at your year-end banquet for providing you with the proper motivation needed for you to succeed.
3. YOU are encouraged to follow the ROBOABACUS, the magnificent creation of Matt Fischer, the CIAC's Emmett "Doc" Brown. It updates the playoff races in real time unlike, you know, fake time.
4. To quote the greatest entertainer not named “Groucho” or “Homer,” “This is an exhibition, not a competition. Please, no wagering.”
Remember, kids — the top eight teams in each division qualify, and a bonus is the 10 points a team earns for every win by any opponent it defeated.
The quarterfinals (Tuesday, Nov. 29) and semifinals (Monday, Dec. 5) will be played at the higher seed. The finals will be played Saturday, Dec. 10 at sites to be determined.
Once again, into the breach:
CLASS LL
Note: This is whack — 23 of the 34 teams in this division are mathematically alive. WOW.
LOCKS: No. 1 Southington (8-0), No. 2 Darien (8-0), No. 3 Newtown (8-0) and No. 4 West Haven (8-0).
All four will (unofficially) qualify with wins this week.
Southington gets winless Bulkeley/HMTCA/Weaver on Friday. It hosts No. 12 Cheshire (5-3) on Thanksgrabbing.
Defending champ Darien heads to No. 14 Staples (5-3) on Friday. It visits unbeaten New Canaan (8-0) on Thanksgrabbing in THE GAME of the year (regular season only).
Newtown hosts Brookfield (3-5) on Friday. It closes on Thanksgrabbing Eve against Masuk (6-2).
West Haven has a rough finish. It plays at Shelton (7-1) on Friday and ends with a Thanksgrabbing home date with No. 11 Fairfield Prep (5-3).
PROLLY: No. 5 Shelton (7-1) and No. 6 Hall (6-2).
Shelton can likely absorb another loss and still qualify because every team after it in the rankings has at least two losses. The Gaels will all but qualify with a win Friday depending on bonuses. They won't get a boost beating old frenemy Derby (1-7) on Thanksgrabbing because the latter is a Class S school from another conference (the Naugatuck Valley League). A team loses points beating teams from a lower class team out-of-conference, thus a win over Derby will be worth 70 points instead of the standard 100, plus 10 points for all of its wins.
Hall’s chances look MEH because it closes with Platt (6-2, Friday) and town rival Conard (4-4, Nov. 19). It's listed here instead of “UNCERTAIN” because we think it wins both games.
UNCERTAIN: No. 7 Greenwich (6-2), No. 8 Ridgefield (6-2), No. 9 Norwich Free Academy (6-2), No. 10 Xavier (5-3), No. 11 Fairfield Prep (5-3) and No. 12 Cheshire (5-3).
It’s a race for “who can avoid a third loss?” here because a loss by either team causes massive damage to their respective Death Star, followed shortly thereafter by the earth-shattering KA-BOOM.
Shelton-West Haven is the sexier game Friday, but Greenwich-Ridgefield is arguably a bigger deal based on the stakes. The winner stays afloat in LL for another week, while the loser is almost toast.
Greenwich hosts Staples (5-3) on Thanksgrabbing. Ridgefield plays at two-win Danbury on Thanksgrabbing Eve.
NFA plays at Stamford (3-5, Saturday) and at New London (7-1) on Thanksgrabbing. The latter is a lulu.
Cheshire and Xavier’s schedules have been akin to being locked in a haunted house crawling with machete-wielding fields while being armed with only a box of crayons (SPOILER — the color purple has no affect on Jason Voorhees, even if you cram it in his eye). Maths leave little room for a winning team to keep a winning record playing so many winning teams. Xavier’s opponents are a combined 41-24, Cheshire’s 40-24.
The upside to playing DETHSCHEDULE is that it affords a team the chance to collect so-oooo many points for beating so many winning teams. So if Cheshire and/or Xavier hangs on and finishes 7-3, they’re in decent shape.
Fairfield Prep, in one week, went from being roasted (a 31-7 loss to Xavier) to the roaster (a 38-15 win over Shelton). So anything is possible with this team. It plays at North Haven (3-5) this Friday and at West Haven on Thanksgrabbing.
THE EIGHT: No. 1 West Haven (10-0) vs. No. 8 Cheshire (7-3) (THE REMATCHENING); No. 2 Newtown (10-0) vs. No. 7 Ridgefield (8-2); No. 3 Darien (9-1) vs. No. 6 Shelton (8-2) (NEAT); No. 4 Southington (9-1) vs. No. 5 Hall (8-2) (THE REMATCHENING).
CLASS L
QUALIFIED: No. 1 New Canaan (8-0)
The Rams have already clinched a home quarterfinal. It plays at winless Fairfield Ludlowe on Friday and hosts Darien on Thanksgrabbing.
LOCKS: No. 2 New London (7-0), No. 3 Windsor (8-0), No. 4 Middletown (7-1) and No. 5 Masuk (6-2).
New London qualifies with a win Friday at Ledyard (3-5). A win over Waterford (5-2, Nov. 18) or NFA gets it a home quarterfinal.
Windsor qualifies with a win over Northwest Catholic (4-4, Friday) or at Middletown (7-1, Thanksgrabbing Eve).
Middletown goes to states with a win over winless Bristol Eastern on Friday, or Windsor. One win seals it a berth because No. 6 Platt and No. 7 Maloney play on Thanksgrabbing.
Masuk hosts Barlow (3-5, Friday) and at scourge of the South-West Conference Newtown on Thanksgrabbing Eve. It will be on solid ground even with a loss to Newtown because almost everyone below it in the rankings has it worse.
UNCERTAIN: No. 6 Platt (6-2), No. 7 Maloney (6-2), No. 8 Naugatuck (6-2), No. 9 Notre Dame-West Haven (5-3), No. 10 Harding (5-3) and No. 11 Bristol Central (5-3).
The loser of Platt-Maloney will be almost cooked. Neither has it easy this Friday either because Platt hosts Hall, and Maloney travels to East Catholic (5-3).
Naugatuck hosts Waterbury Career (4-4) on Friday and visits ancient nemesis Ansonia (8-0) on Thanksgrabbing. Oh heavens.
Remember what we wrote about Cheshire and Xavier? Well, Notre Dame has played almost as savage a schedule, but that will work to its advantage if it wins out against Xavier and Hamden (2-6).
Harding needs help. It hosts winless Wolcott Tech/Housatonic/Wamogo on Friday and against Bridgeport Central (1-6) on Thanksgrabbing. It will earn little points for winning either game. What works in its favor is that the other contenders listed have tough schedules.
Bristol Central needs to win at East Hartford (4-4, Friday) and against Bristol Eastern on Thanksgrabbing. Period.
We're done with this class.
THE EIGHT: No. 1 New Canaan (10-0) vs. No. 8 Maloney (7-3); No. 2 New London (10-0) vs. No. 7 Masuk (7-3); No. 3 Windsor (10-0) vs. No. 6 Platt (7-3); No. 4 Middletown (8-2) vs. No. 5 Notre Dame-West Haven (7-3).
CLASS M
LOCKS: No. 1 Valley Regional/Old Lyme (7-1), No. 2 St. Joseph (7-1), No. 3 Hillhouse (7-1), No. 4 Killingly (7-1) and No. 5 Berlin (7-1).
All five of these teams will likely qualify even if they lose again because everyone ranked after them already has two losses.
VR/OL closes its regular season with two losing teams — at winless Canton on Saturday and at home vs. Haddam-Killingworth (3-5) on Thanksgrabbing Eve.
St. Joseph hosts Westhill (3-5) on Saturday and at Trumbull (5-3) on Thanksgrabbing. Both opponents are LL schools, meaning that the Cadets will get an extra 20 points for beating either team.
The House is in good shape. Lyman Hall (1-7) pays a visit on Friday. It plays rival Wilbur Cross (4-3) on Thanksgrabbing.
Killingly is close to its second straight Class M berth. It hosts to Fitch (3-5) on Friday and at Quinebaug Valley (1-7) on Thanksgrabbing.
Berlin has it worst as it plays at Rocky Hill (7-1) on Friday and against New Britain (4-4) on Nov. 18. Again, it should be fine if it splits.
PROLLY: No. 6 Wolcott (6-2) and No. 7 Bunnell (6-2).
Wolcott hosts Torrington (4-4, Friday) and at Holy Cross (3-5) on Thanksgrabbing. It should like those odds.
Bunnell plays at New Milford (5-3, Friday) and home against blood rival Stratford (2-6) on Thanksgrabbing. It all but clinches with two wins. And, yes, New Milford has five wins, but none against a winning team.
UNCERTAIN: No. 8 Gilbert/Northwestern (7-1), No. 9 New Fairfield (6-2).
G/NR’s opponents are a combined 19-42, so it has feasted on bad teams. It heads to Class S hopeful Old Saybrook/Westbrook (6-1) on Saturday. Old/West gave Valley/Lyme fits in a 26-15 loss in Week 2. Not loving the Yellowjackets’ odds this weekend. It hosts Waterbury Career (4-4) on Thanksgrabbing.
New Fairfield plays at Weston (3-5, Friday) and against New Milford on Thanksgrabbing. Two wins and some help gets it a second straight playoff berth.
PROLLY NOT: No. 10 Waterford (5-2), Abbott Tech/Immaculate (5-2) and Foran (4-3).
Waterford makes-or-breaks its season the next two weeks at Plainfield (5-3, Friday) and vs. unbeaten New London (Nov. 18). It closes with winless East Lyme on Thanksgrabbing. You should recognize that it’s going to be near unpossible for the Lancers to run the table.
ATI plays at Class S hopeful Bullard Havens (7-1) on Saturday. Tough game (BH knocked off defending Constitution State Conference champion Harding last weekend). It hosts Cheney Tech (5-3, hasn't beaten a winning team) on Nov. 18. It plays winless Wolcott Tech/Housatonic/Wamogo on Thanksgrabbing.
The bad news for Foran is it's so far back. The good news is that all its remaining games are at home against losing teams. First is Amity (3-5, Friday). Next is Creed/Career/Whitney Tech (3-5, Nov. 17). Law (3-4) stops by for Thanksgrabbing.
THE EIGHT: No. 1 Valley Regional/Old Lyme (9-1) vs. No. 8 Berlin (8-2); No. 2 Hillhouse (9-1) vs. No. 7 St. Joseph (8-2) (HEY NOW); No. 3 Killingly (9-1) vs. No. 6 Wolcott (8-2); No. 4 New Fairfield (8-2) vs. No. 8 Bunnell (8-2) (THE REMATCHENING).
CLASS S
LOCKS: No. 1 Capital Prep/Achievement (7-0), No. 2 Ansonia (8-0), No. 3 Bloomfield (8-0) and No. 4 Cromwell/Portland (7-0).
All have a leg up on the rest of the field because they’re unbeaten.
CP/A qualifies with a home win over Vinal Tech/East Hampton/Goodwin Tech (1-7) on Friday. Win. It closes at Prince Tech (5-3) on Nov. 19.
Ansonia qualifies with a win Friday over Holy Cross (3-5). It gets Naugy on Thanksgrabbing.
RHAM (2-6, Friday) and Enfield (1-7, Nov. 18) each have the misfortune of playing Bloomfield so late in the season. The defending Class S champions WARHAWKS are in with one win.
Crom/Port has a rough road to states. It hosts to Granby (1-7) on Friday. It plays at North Branford (4-3) on Nov. 17. Yep, those are winnable. And then comes a home game against Rocky Hill (7-1) in a huge game for Class S. It should be okay with two wins.
UNCERTAIN: (Deep breath) No. 5 Oxford (7-1), No. 6 Bullard Havens (7-1), No. 7 Seymour (6-2), No. 8 Rocky Hill, No. 9 Stafford/East Windsor/Somers (7-1), No. 10 Old Saybrook/Westbrook (6-1), No. 11 Trinity Catholic (5-3), No. 12 Ellington (6-2), Green Party candidate Jill Stein, No. 13 Windham (5-2) and No. 14 O’Brien Tech (4-2).
Let’s wrap this up quickly, ‘kay?
Note that everyone in this group is in major jeopardy should they lose again.
Oxford plays at Seymour tonight in a humongous game for themselves and the class. The winner is all but catapulted into states. Oxford hosts St. Paul (5-3) on Nov. 23. St. Paul hasn’t beaten a winning team this season. Seymour plays at winless Woodland on Nov. 23.
BH hosts Abbott/Immaculate on Saturday. It plays at Bassick (3-4) on Thanksgrabbing Eve.
Rocky Hill has a 90-degree climb. It plays at Berlin on Friday and at Cromwell/Portland on Thanksgrabbing Eve.
S/EW/S plays at Old Saybrook/Westbrook on Nov. 19. Not gonna be easy. It closes with Windsor Locks/Suffield/East Granby (1-7, Thanksgrabbing Eve).
Old/West has a challenging finish. It gets Gilbert/Northwestern on Saturday, S/EW/S the following Saturday and heads to rival Morgan (5-3) on Thanksgrabbing Eve.
Trinity Catholic hosts Bridgeport Central (1-6) on Friday. It plays at Wilton (5-3). TC is better than both teams. Central is LL, so TC will receive 30 bonus points for that win. Wilton is in Class L, thus it's worth an extra 20 points to TC. That’s a nice 310 points for two wins.
Ellington heads to North Branford (4-3) on Friday. It closes at home against Coventry/Windham Tech/Bolton (3-4) on Thanksgrabbing.
Windham and O’Brien Tech are so far back that it probably won’t matter if they win out.
Windham hosts winless East Lyme on Friday, vs. Woodstock (4-4) on Nov. 17 and at Montville (2-6) on Thanksgrabbing Eve. It will earn few points from those games.
O’Brien hosts Bassick on Saturday and at Platt Tech (3-5) on Thanksgrabbing. Its maximum possible average with two wins and every bonus is 112.5 points. By comparison, Oxford will have a 114-point average just by beating Seymour, BH and Rocky Hill will both have a 113 average with a win this weekend, and Seymour a 109 average with a win tonight.
THE EIGHT: No. 1 Ansonia (10-0) vs. Bullard Havens (9-1); No. 2 Capital/Achievement (9-0) vs. No. 6 Cromwell/Portland (9-1); No. 3 Bloomfield (10-0) vs. Oxford (9-1); No. 4 Rocky Hill (9-1) vs. No. 5 Old Saybrook/Westbrook (9-1).
• • • •
That's all for now. Thanks for reading. More Sunday evening.
Vaya con dios....
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