Who'll win? Predictions on whether 'La La Land' will dance into the sunset with an Oscar
It's Academy Awards night tonight. Red carpet coverage starts at 7 p.m., with the ceremony beginning at 8:30 on ABC.
Best Picture: "Arrival," "Fences," "Hacksaw Ridge," "Hell or High Water," "Hidden Figures," "La La Land," "Lion," "Manchester by the Sea," "Moonlight"
Do you really have to ask? Of course "La La Land" will win! Hollywood adores movies about itself! And, although it does play some bittersweet notes, "La La Land" is a much more upbeat, carried-away-on-a-moonbeam-and-a-song movie than all these others combined. I thoroughly enjoyed "La La Land," although, if I had the chance, I might cast my vote instead for "Fences" and "Hell or High Water," which both had more heft.
Actor: Casey Affleck, "Manchester by the Sea," Denzel Washington, "Fences," Ryan Gosling, "La La Land," Viggo Mortensen, "Captain Fantastic," Andrew Garfield, "Hacksaw Ridge"
I'm protesting Casey Affleck's win — because I do think he'll win. His portrayal reminds me, in the character's taciturn, inward nature, of Joel Edgerton's in "Loving." Edgerton, though, gives the far richer performance, eloquently conveying each of his character's unarticulated thoughts. And Edgerton didn't even get nominated for an Academy Award. It's sacrilege! A potential spoiler for Affleck: Denzel Washington. If Washington wins, as he did at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, I'll be pleased. He is an absolute powerhouse in "Fences."
Actress: Isabelle Huppert, "Elle"; Ruth Negga, "Loving"; Natalie Portman, "Jackie"; Emma Stone, "La La Land"; Meryl Streep, "Florence Foster Jenkins"
I realize chances are good that Emma Stone will be swept along by affection for "La La Land" and for the very talented Stone herself. But here's my dark-horse theory: The Oscar voters love to toss an award to a foreign actress or actor (heck, they've already given two to Christoph Waltz). So might Isabelle Huppert be the night's big upset and nab the trophy for the complicated character she played in "Elle"? We'll see.
Supporting Actor: Jeff Bridges, "Hell or High Water"; Mahershala Ali, "Moonlight"; Dev Patel, "Lion"; Michael Shannon, "Nocturnal Animals"
Um, don't tell the voters, but Jeff Bridges and Michael Shannon play the EXACT SAME CHARACTER. Texas lawmen who are wily (check), drawling (check), and wisecracking (check). Talk about separated at birth. Mahershala Ali deserves to — and will — walk away with the trophy for "Moonlight." He makes that movie. With the strength, warmth and intelligence he brings, you can see why the young boy in "Moonlight" attaches to Ali's character.
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, "Fences"; Naomie Harris, "Moonlight"; Nicole Kidman, "Lion"; Octavia Spencer, "Hidden Figures"; Michelle Williams, "Manchester by the Sea"
Go, Viola! Central Falls, Rhode Island's woman-done-good will get herself an Oscar tonight, and she is oh-so-worthy. She is devastating as a faithful but eventually bereft wife in "Fences," and, beyond that, she has given so many varied and nuanced performances over recent years.
Directing: "Arrival," Denis Villeneuve; "Hacksaw Ridge," Mel Gibson; "La La Land," Damien Chazelle; "Manchester by the Sea," Kenneth Lonergan; "Moonlight," Barry Jenkins
Damien Chazelle will win. One thing I love: how different the two feature films he wrote and directed are, 2014's "Whiplash" and "La La Land," are.
Adapted Screenplay: "Moonlight," "Lion," "Arrival," "Fences," "Hidden Figures"
It's not just the fact that August Wilson developed "Fences" at the National Playwrights Conference at the Eugene O'Neill Theater Center in Waterford that makes me hope "Fences" wins. It's that Wilson wrote rich, evocative, poetic words and built a powerful, moving drama of heart and heartache. And that's rare in this year's crop of films, which err on the side of sparse, realistic dialogue. (See "Moonlight" and "Manchester by the Sea" and "Lion" and "Loving" and ...) How wonderful would it be if Wilson wins the Oscar for the screenplay he wrote before his 2005 death.
Original Screenplay: "Hell or High Water," "La La Land," "The Lobster," "Manchester by the Sea," "20th Century Women"
I love that the uber-odd "The Lobster" was nominated, but it'll be "La La Land" all the way.
Original Song: "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)," from "La La Land"; "Can't Stop the Feeling!" from "Trolls"; "City of Stars" from "La La Land"; "The Empty Chair" from "Jim: The James Foley Story"; "How Far I'll Go" from "Moana"
Let's get Justin Timberlake one step closer to EGOT territory. He's won Grammys and Emmys. If he nabs an Oscar (and, since the two "La La Land" entries here might split votes, Timberlake might eke out of a victory), he'll only need a Tony. Anyone up for an *NSYNC jukebox Broadway musical?
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