The Oscars ceremony airs at 8:30 p.m. Sunday, Feb. 22, on ABC, led by red-carpet coverage at 7. Who'll win? Let's bust out our crystal ball and gaze into the Academy Award-happy future.

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: "American Sniper," "Birdman," "Boyhood," "The Grand Budapest Hotel," "The Imitation Game," "Selma," "The Theory of Everything," "Whiplash"

By the time summer was segueing into fall last year, I was the world's most sorrowful movie fan. (I looked like one of those sad-faced kids in the "Big Eyes" paintings.) How, I wondered, would the Academy Awards find enough films to nominate for best picture? It had been a woeful year for the Silver Screen. But then - voila! - the quality product started rolling in. "Birdman" may be more inventive and thrilling, but "Boyhood" is the most likely victor; it was created in an innovative way, it eloquently captures life in America at a particular time, and it is the product of always-intriguing director-writer Richard Linklater.

ACTRESS

Nominees: Marion Cotillard in "Two Days, One Night," Felicity Jones in "The Theory of Everything," Julianne Moore in "Still Alice," Rosamund Pike in "Gone Girl," Reese Witherspoon in "Wild"

If there's a sure thing, Moore is it. She's deserving not only for her turn as a woman struggling with early-onset Alzheimer's, but she's deserving, too, for her body of work. (And watching her play Alec Baldwin's wife in "Alice," I couldn't help but fondly recall when the two co-starred on "30 Rock," where Moore guested as a wicked blue-collah Bahstonian from Jack Donaghy's school years on "30 Rock." Girl can even rock the comedy.)

ACTOR

Nominees: Steve Carell in "Foxcatcher," Bradley Cooper in "American Sniper," Benedict Cumberbatch in "The Imitation Game," Michael Keaton in "Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)," Eddie Redmayne in "The Theory of Everything"

Best actor is always a competitive category - because, well, Hollywood mostly makes movies that feature central, meaty roles for men (and it's usually white men, at that). But, putting that aside, I have to note that this year's nominees are a particularly strong group, each taking on a complex character that's dramatically different from every other one in the running. I am rooting for Keaton - I'm giddy at the resurgence of this electric actor - but I fear that Redmayne will nab the little golden statue. You know how Oscar voters go crazy for a physical transformation.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Patricia Arquette in "Boyhood," Laura Dern in "Wild," Keira Knightley in "The Imitation Game," Emma Stone in "Birdman," Meryl Streep in "Into The Woods"

Arquette will win for her subtle turn as a mother going through her own evolution in "Boyhood," but I'm Team Emma. Stone gave arguably the most dynamic performance here, as Michael Keaton's daughter/personal assistant, a recovering addict with simmering daddy issues, in "Birdman." But Stone's Oscar time will come - if not now, in the future.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Robert Duvall in "The Judge," Ethan Hawke in "Boyhood," Edward Norton in "Birdman," Mark Ruffalo in "Foxcatcher," J.K. Simmons in "Whiplash"

Because I'm so freakin' scared of Simmons' character, I feel compelled to predict J.K. will win. Well, there's that - plus the fact that the actor found nuances and depth in the world's most intimidating music teacher. And, um, did I mention I'm scared?

DIRECTOR

Nominees: Alejandro G. Iñárritu for "Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)," Richard Linklater for "Boyhood," Bennett Miller for "Foxcatcher," Wes Anderson for "The Grand Budapest Hotel," Morten Tyldum for "The Imitation Game"

Front-runners Iñárritu and Linklater each turned what would have been mere stunts - simulation of a one-continuous-shot in "Birdman" and shooting a film over 12 years in "Boyhood" - into affecting works of art. Pundits are predicting a statue for Linklater, but it's entirely possible the academy will split the difference, giving best picture to "Boyhood" and best director to Iñárritu.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Alejandro G. Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris Jr. and Armando Bo, "Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)"; Richard Linklater, "Boyhood"; E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, "Foxcatcher"; Wes Anderson (screenplay) and story by Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, "The Grand Budapest Hotel"; Dan Gilroy, "Nightcrawler"

"Birdman" is so out-there and original, it deserves the Oscar.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Jason Hall, "American Sniper"; Graham Moore, "The Imitation Game"; Paul Thomas Anderson, "Inherent Vice"; Anthony McCarten, "The Theory of Everything"; Damien Chazelle, "Whiplash"

This could go any which way (except in the direction of "Inherent Vice," which, considering its percentage of hostile reviews, lucked into this nomination). "Whiplash" or "The Imitation Game" seem the most likely victors, and either's deserving. Since I had issues with a few logic and character points in "Whiplash," I'd go with "Game," which is smart, well-structured and moving.