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    Real Estate
    Thursday, April 25, 2024

    Recent report offers cautious, optimistic housing predictions for the new year

    Most consumers surveyed by the real estate site Trulia wish to pursue home ownership and expect the housing market to improve in 2015. The site's report summarizing the survey results says this optimism is a good sign for the market, but also said there will be some challenges ahead.

    Jed Kolko, chief economist for Trulia, says 74 percent of survey respondents agreed that owning a home was part of their own personal "American Dream." He says this was the same percentage that appeared in the 2013 fourth quarter survey and slightly higher than the percentage in the three prior years.

    Greater numbers of young respondents also indicated a desire to own a home. Seventy-eight percent of those between the ages of 18 and 34 said owning a home was a personal goal, up from 73 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013. The lowest percentage on this question came in the third quarter of 2011, when only 65 percent of the respondents from this age group said they were interested in owning a home.

    Among young renters, 93 percent said they plan to buy a home at some point in the future.

    Respondents were most optimistic about 2015 being a seller's market, with 36 percent saying they think it will be a better year for selling than 2014. Sixteen percent said they thought 2015 would be a worse year for selling. The remaining respondents were either unsure or thought the state of the market would be unchanged from 2014.

    Renters who said they wished to buy a home were able to choose multiple options on challenges they faced in owning a home. The survey indicated that saving up for a down payment on a home was the biggest obstacle to home ownership. Though the percentage decreased slightly from the fourth quarter of 2013, more than half still said this initial payment was a major difficulty.

    The percentage of respondents indicating a lack of stable employment as an issue fell from last year, declining from 36 percent to 24 percent. However, home affordability became more of a challenge; 22 percent said affordability was an issue in the 2013 survey, while 32 percent said it was a challenge in the most recent survey.

    The survey was given to 2,008 American adults between Nov. 6 and Nov. 10.

    Kolko says he believes the market is reaching a more sustainable point following an initial recovery driven by investors who purchased foreclosures, short sales, and undervalued homes. He says the market is now shifting to slower price increases and a more diverse range of home sales. However, he says the market will also be driven by factors such as job growth, increases in income, and household formation.

    Kolko's report says that although home price gains have slowed, affordability remains an issue. Year-over-year price increases plummeted from 10.6 percent in October of 2013 to 4 percent in October of 2014, and the expectations of a healthy selling market with plenty of inventory might slow price growth even more. However, Kolko says mortgage rates are likely to increase and incomes in 2013 rose only 1.3 percent, or 0.3 percent when adjusted for inflation.

    For these reasons, Kolko expects that the rental market will remain strong. Construction of multifamily apartment buildings increased in 2014, and the completion of these buildings might lead to increased supply and stabilized rents. Kolko says there is likely to be an increase in household formation among people between the ages of 25 and 34, but that they are likely to start out as renters.

    The report says the initial popularity of rentals and the likelihood of increased home sales in 2015 might have the effect of slowing new construction of single family homes as well as sales of new homes. He says that since younger households are more likely to rent while saving up for a down payment on a home, there is likely to be a continued demand for multifamily properties over single family homes.

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