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    Real Estate
    Tuesday, April 23, 2024

    Consumer enthusiasm rebounds in Fannie Mae survey for March

    Sentiments toward buying and selling a home improved at the start of the spring season, according to a regular monthly survey by Fannie Mae. Attitudes toward personal finances remained relatively steady.

    The Home Purchase Sentiment Index for March stood at 89.8, up 5.5 points from February and 1.5 points from March 2018. The index was at its highest point since June 2018 and less than two points shy of the survey high of 91.7 set in April 2018.

    The figure is based on the net share of respondents giving an optimistic response to six questions of Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey. These include whether it is a good time to buy or sell a home, expected changes to home prices and mortgage rates, perceived job security, and changes to household income.

    Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, said the survey results are a positive sign going into the spring and summer seasons, which typically see the most robust home sales. He credited the drop in mortgage rates in recent months for the revived optimism, which sharply reversed the gradual decline in the HPSI over the past year.

    "Continuing a five-month trend, the net share of consumers who believe mortgage rates will go down increased 7 percentage points amid a 35 basis-point drop in mortgage rates in March alone," said Duncan. "Meanwhile, job confidence—little changed from last month's survey high—also continues to support housing sentiment, while income growth perceptions firmed from both prior month and year-ago levels, potentially supporting an uptick in housing demand."

    Respondents were still likely to expect mortgage rates to increase in the next 12 months, with 51 percent holding this view. However, this share was down from 55 percent in the previous month and 57 percent in the previous year. Six percent of respondents said they think rates will go down, up from 3 percent in February and 5 percent in March 2018.

    Fifty-six percent of respondents considered it a good time to buy a home, a year-over-year drop of 6 percentage points but up 3 percentage points from February. Thirty-four percent thought it was a bad time to buy a home, down 4 percentage points from the previous month but up 4 percentage points from the previous year.

    Fifty-eight percent thought it would be easy for them to get a mortgage, unchanged from February and down 1 percentage point from March 2018. Forty percent thought it would be difficult to get a mortgage, unchanged from the previous month but a year-over-year increase of 3 percentage points.

    Buying a home remained a preferable option for most respondents if they were to relocate. Sixty-nine percent said they would purchase their next home if they moved, up 4 percentage points from February but down 1 percentage point from March 2018. Twenty-six percent said they would rent, down 4 percentage points from February to match the same share in March 2018.

    Fifty-nine percent said they believe rental prices will increase in the next 12 months, up 3 percentage points from the previous month and 1 percentage point from the previous year. Four percent said they think rents will go down, up 1 percentage point from February and 2 percentage points from March 2018. On average, respondents expected rents to grow by 4.1 percent – down from expectations of 4.3 percent in the previous month and 4.5 percent in the previous year.

    Sixty-six percent considered it a good time to sell a home, matching the share from last year and a jump of 6 percentage points from the previous month. Twenty-three percent said they thought it was a bad time to sell, falling 7 percentage points from February and 4 percentage points from March 2018.

    Nearly half of respondents—49 percent—said they think home prices will go up in the next 12 months – up from 43 percent in the previous month but down from 51 percent in the previous year. Eleven percent said they think prices will fall, up 1 percentage point from February and 2 percentage points from March 2018.

    Nine out of 10 respondents said they aren't worried about losing their job in the next 12 months, the same share as the previous month and up from 85 percent in February 2018. Ten percent said they were worried about potential unemployment, up 1 percentage point from the previous month but down 4 percentage points from the previous year.

    Twenty-seven percent said their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago, unchanged from the previous month and down 1 percentage point from the previous year. Seven percent said their income is significantly lower, down 2 percentage points from February and 4 percentage points from March 2018.

    Half of the survey respondents said they expect their personal financial situation to improve over the next 12 months, up 5 percentage points from February but down 2 percentage points on an annual basis. Ten percent said they think their financial situation will worsen, down from 12 percent in the previous month and 11 percent in the previous year.

    Fifty-one percent said they think the U.S. economy is on the right track, down 1 percentage point from February and 2 percentage points from March 2018. Thirty-nine percent said they think the economy is on the wrong track, up 1 percentage point from both the previous month and previous year.

    The National Housing Survey polls approximately 1,000 Americans via telephone interview each month to gauge attitudinal shifts in issues related to the housing market and economy. Each respondent is asked more than 100 questions.

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