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    Real Estate
    Friday, April 19, 2024

    Housing confidence ebbs slightly in Fannie Mae survey

    A dip in the stock market, the possibility of increasing mortgage rates, and other factors caused Americans' perceptions of the housing markets to grow slightly more pessimistic in February, according to Fannie Mae.

    Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index for the month dropped 3.7 points to 85.8, erasing an increase of the same amount that occurred in January. The index is based on six factors in Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey, including respondents' answers on whether they think it is a good time to buy or sell a home, whether they think home prices or mortgage rates will go up, if their household income is higher than it was a year ago, and if they are concerned about losing their job.

    "Volatility in consumer housing sentiment continued into February, with the new tax law beginning to impact respondents' take-home pay and the stock market creating negative headlines due to early-month turbulence," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "Additionally, consumers' expectations for higher mortgage rates suggest that consumers expect the Fed to hike rates a few more times in 2018. We will continue to track how consumer housing attitudes trend in the coming months as these various market forces play out."

    A majority of buyers considered it a good time to buy a home, but this share has been dwindling over the past year. Fifty-seven percent of respondents in the February survey said they thought the buying market was favorable, down from 59 percent in January and 66 percent in February 2017. Thirty-five percent said they considered it a bad time to sell a home, up from 32 percent in the previous month and 26 percent in the previous year.

    Sixty-two percent of respondents said they think mortgage rates will increase in the next 12 months. This share was up 1 percentage point from February 2017 and 7 percentage points from January. Only 5 percent said they think rates will drop, up from 4 percent in the previous month but down from 6 percent in the previous year.

    Respondents have been fairly constant on whether they would buy or rent their next home if they were to move. Sixty-six percent said they would buy, unchanged from the previous year and down 1 percentage point from the previous month. Twenty-nine percent said they would rent, up from 28 percent in January and unchanged from February 2017.

    There was also little change in perceptions of how hard it would be to get a mortgage. Fifty-seven percent said they thought it would be easy to qualify for a home loan, the same share as in January and up 1 percentage point from the previous year. Forty-one percent said they thought it would be difficult, up 2 percentage points from the previous month and 1 percentage point from the previous year.

    Fifty-nine percent said they believe home rental prices will increase in the next 12 months, the same share as in January and up 3 percentage points from February 2017. Four percent said they believe rents will become cheaper, unchanged from the previous month and up 1 percentage point from the previous year.

    On average, respondents said they expect home rental prices to go up 4.4 percent over the next 12 months. This was up from the average estimate of 3.8 percent in February 2017, but down from 4.8 percent in January.

    Seller optimism was fairly steady, with 63 percent of respondents considering it a good time to list a home. This share was down 2 percentage points from the previous month, but up 7 percentage points from the previous year. Twenty-seven percent said they thought it was a bad time to sell, unchanged from the previous home and down 7 percentage points from February 2017.

    Fewer respondents said they expect home prices to rise in the next 12 months. Fifty-two percent said they expect prices to go up, down 6 percentage points from the previous month and 1 percentage point from the previous year. Seven percent said they think prices will decline, down 1 percentage point from February 2017 but up 1 percentage point from January.

    The average respondent said they think home prices will go up 3.3 percent over the next 12 months. This was down from 3.7 percent in the previous month, but up from 3.2 percent in the previous year.

    Eighty-five percent of respondents said they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months, down from 86 percent in the previous month and 89 percent in the previous year. Fourteen percent said they were worried about a potential job loss, up 1 percentage point from January and 3 percentage points from February 2017.

    Twenty-six percent said their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago, down 1 percentage point from the previous month and 2 percentage points from the previous year. Nine percent said their income is significantly lower, down 2 percentage points from January to match a low set in February 2017.

    Forty-nine percent of respondents said they believe their personal financial situation will improve in the next 12 months, down 3 percentage points from both the previous month and previous year. Nine percent said they expect it will worsen, up 2 percentage points from the previous year but down 1 percentage point from January.

    Perceptions on the U.S. economy improved, with 53 percent saying they thought it was on the right track. This marked an increase of 3 percentage points from January and 5 percentage points from February 2017. Thirty-five percent said they thought the economy was on the wrong track, unchanged from the previous year but down 3 percentage points from the previous month.

    Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey has been issued each month since June 2010. About 1,000 adults are interviewed via telephone and asked more than 100 questions to gauge perceptions of the housing market and economy.

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