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    Wednesday, April 17, 2024

    Local races to watch on Tuesday

    While the nation is fixated on the presidency, locally there will be some interesting state Senate and House races to watch after polls close on Tuesday.

    Unlike elections for federal office, there is little or no polling at this level, but I expect large turnout driven by Trump fervor — more against than for — will make it a good day for Democrats. Look for the party to expand its 22-14 Senate and 91-60 House majorities.

    State Sen. Paul Formica, the three-term incumbent Republican in the 20th District, looks vulnerable. Democrat Martha Marx made it close in 2018, losing by 1,582 votes out of 39,910 cast. She has never stopped running, working with local Democrats in East Lyme — where Formica once served as first selectman — and Waterford to try to erode his support in those towns.

    In 2018, Marx won New London by 2,861 votes. In a high-turnout, presidential election, look for her to expand that number. If she does that and eats into Formica’s numbers elsewhere in the district, which is quite possible, Marx could return the 20th to the Democrats.

    Democrats also hope another rematch could unseat an incumbent Republican, with Democratic Bob Statchen once again challenging incumbent GOP Sen. Heather Somers in the 18th District. Somers won by 3,611 votes two years ago.

    I do expect some reduction in that total. Statchen won in the district’s two largest towns — Stonington and Groton — in 2018 and will expand his margins there. He has the advantage of having three lines on the ballot as the endorsed candidate of the Democratic, Working Families and Independent parties. Somers had the Independent line last time.

    But Somers won big in 2018 in the district’s more conservative, interior towns. The district stretches north to Griswold, Plainfield and Sterling, Trump country all. She won those interior towns 10,391 to 5,953. Look for Statchen to do better, but I don’t see him overcoming a deficit that large.

    I expect both Democratic state Sens. Cathy Osten, in the 19th District, and Norm Needleman in the 33rd, to win re-election. Needleman, the Essex first selectman, won an 85-vote squeaker over former state Rep. Melissa Ziobron to earn his first Senate term. My gut says he wins far more easily over Republican challenger Brendan Saunders this time.

    In House races, Republicans think they may be able to pick up a seat in Stonington. Freshman Democratic state Rep. Kate Rotella is facing Republican Greg Howard in 43rd District of Stonington and North Stonington. Howard is a Stonington police detective with 19 years on the job and also has been active in youth sports. He is criticizing Rotella for her support of the police accountability bill, focusing on a section of the new law that he argues eroded the qualified immunity that shields police officers from personal financial damages related to their conduct. Democrats insist the law has been misread, and protection against personal damage remains.

    Rotella won two years ago by only 149 votes and Republicans have held this seat before. Normally, I would think Rotella was in trouble, but I am betting enough Democrats and unaffiliated voters, fired up to vote against Trump, will also back lower-ticket Democrats such as her. Rotella survives.

    Elsewhere, some Republican House candidates are on the defensive. In the 37th District — East Lyme and Salem — Republican Rep. Holly Cheeseman won by 310 votes in 2018. She faces Democrat Cate Steel. In the 38th — Waterford and a section of Montville — Republican Rep. Kathleen McCarty prevailed by 274 votes two years ago. She faces a rematch with Baird Welch-Collins.

    The anchor that is Trump could well drag both Cheeseman and McCarty under, politically speaking.

    Paul Choiniere is the editorial page editor.

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