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    Monday, October 07, 2024

    Recession so great it has a name

    So it's official. We're in a Great Recession.At least that's what the Associated Press says. The global news service has added a new online entry to its AP Stylebook, which sets the standard on usage, grammar and punctuation for those of us who toil in the Fourth Estate.

    At least that's what the Associated Press says. The global news service has added a new online entry to its AP Stylebook, which sets the standard on usage, grammar and punctuation for those of us who toil in the Fourth Estate.The entry, "Great Recession," explains it as "The recession that began in December 2007 and became the longest and deepest since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It occurred after losses on subprime mortgages battered the U.S. housing market."

    The entry, "Great Recession," explains it as "The recession that began in December 2007 and became the longest and deepest since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It occurred after losses on subprime mortgages battered the U.S. housing market."It's interesting to note that the stylebook arbiters didn't include a date when this great economic maelstrom ended. They'll likely leave that to the economists and the official arbiters of all things recessionary, like the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass. (And, yes, that group is indeed the proclaimer of the beginning and ending of recessions.)

    It's interesting to note that the stylebook arbiters didn't include a date when this great economic maelstrom ended. They'll likely leave that to the economists and the official arbiters of all things recessionary, like the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass. (And, yes, that group is indeed the proclaimer of the beginning and ending of recessions.)It certainly comes as no great revelation to most of us that this economic downturn has been steep, severe and stinging. And the term "Great Recession" has been bantered about by economists for some time now as they grasp at measurements, statistics and figures to determine when it will end.

    It certainly comes as no great revelation to most of us that this economic downturn has been steep, severe and stinging. And the term "Great Recession" has been bantered about by economists for some time now as they grasp at measurements, statistics and figures to determine when it will end.Some experts, in fact, have said the recession is over in a technical sense - but to those without jobs - more than 8 million - or who are underemployed or working two jobs such technical stuff doesn't really matter.

    Some experts, in fact, have said the recession is over in a technical sense - but to those without jobs - more than 8 million - or who are underemployed or working two jobs such technical stuff doesn't really matter.What is most troubling in this Great Recession is the lack of jobs. This past week, the Wall Street Journal reported that about a quarter of the 8.4 million jobs officially evaporated since the recession began won't likely reappear.

    What is most troubling in this Great Recession is the lack of jobs. This past week, the Wall Street Journal reported that about a quarter of the 8.4 million jobs officially evaporated since the recession began won't likely reappear.The survey did show economists believe there will be a slow upswing for this economy, with estimates of economic growth in the 3 percent range. That's hardly bountiful but is surely better than some of the negative growth we've experienced in this now years-long recession.

    The survey did show economists believe there will be a slow upswing for this economy, with estimates of economic growth in the 3 percent range. That's hardly bountiful but is surely better than some of the negative growth we've experienced in this now years-long recession. According to the Journal, that range of growth would translate to about 133,000 jobs a month in the coming year. But the publication notes this country needs about 100,000 new jobs a month just to "soak up" new entrants into our work force. So with that type of muted growth, don't expect the unemployment rate to fall too far too soon.

    According to the Journal, that range of growth would translate to about 133,000 jobs a month in the coming year. But the publication notes this country needs about 100,000 new jobs a month just to "soak up" new entrants into our work force. So with that type of muted growth, don't expect the unemployment rate to fall too far too soon.Here in Connecticut, the jobs picture is murky at best. A report issued Wednesday by the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis at the University of Connecticut was a sobering read for anyone following the state of this state's economy (a job that's not for the feint of heart, believe me).

    Here in Connecticut, the jobs picture is murky at best. A report issued Wednesday by the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis at the University of Connecticut was a sobering read for anyone following the state of this state's economy (a job that's not for the feint of heart, believe me).The report predicted a "no jobs" recovery. And one could hardly miss that point, since the report was titled "No Jobs Recovery! When will Connecticut's misery end?" (And, yes, the report did use an exclamation point to reinforce Connecticut's sorry record on job growth.)

    The report predicted a "no jobs" recovery. And one could hardly miss that point, since the report was titled "No Jobs Recovery! When will Connecticut's misery end?" (And, yes, the report did use an exclamation point to reinforce Connecticut's sorry record on job growth.)The economic-analysis think tank is an impressive place, and its track record of predicting Connecticut's economic fortunes is solid (perhaps "economic fortunes" is not the most accurate phrase to use these days).

    The economic-analysis think tank is an impressive place, and its track record of predicting Connecticut's economic fortunes is solid (perhaps "economic fortunes" is not the most accurate phrase to use these days).The forecasting team says Connecticut will likely continue to lose jobs through next year - and perhaps longer. The report points out the state's employment base of about 1.62 million is down about 55,700 from the start of the millennium.

    The forecasting team says Connecticut will likely continue to lose jobs through next year - and perhaps longer. The report points out the state's employment base of about 1.62 million is down about 55,700 from the start of the millennium.The report also says Connecticut, not unlike other states (including those across the wobbly northeast), has lost "large numbers" of high-skilled, high-wage jobs and has seen "vigorous growth" in mostly low-skilled, low-wage jobs. You don't have to be an economist to know that's a prescription for diminished economic growth and diminished personal income.

    The report also says Connecticut, not unlike other states (including those across the wobbly northeast), has lost "large numbers" of high-skilled, high-wage jobs and has seen "vigorous growth" in mostly low-skilled, low-wage jobs. You don't have to be an economist to know that's a prescription for diminished economic growth and diminished personal income."Unless the state adopts policies and makes strategic investments to change this progressively deteriorating pattern, a jobs recovery may never arrive," say the experts at the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis.

    "Unless the state adopts policies and makes strategic investments to change this progressively deteriorating pattern, a jobs recovery may never arrive," say the experts at the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis. Quite frankly, I couldn't have said it better myself.

    Quite frankly, I couldn't have said it better myself.

    Anthony Cronin is The Day's business editor.

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