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    Wednesday, November 30, 2022

    The Lonesome Polecat: YOUR BRACKETOLOGY~! update

    NOTE: This was written without the aid of a copy editor. Please ignore whatever spelling or grammatical errors are contained herein.

    Howdy,

    We said we’d try to keep YOU updated after Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s games.

    Well, HERE WE ARE to deliver.

    THINGS TO REMEMBER:

    1. NO ONE officially qualifies until the CIAC football committee says so. They’ll rubber stamp everything the day after the end of the regular season, whenever that is.

    2. We had to predict the winners of all the games to do this. That’s obviously the crappiest of crap-shoots.

    3. We’re going to be wrong about some of these predictions. Like, really, really wrong. That’s because Thanksgrabbing week is always nutters. And if that wasn’t enough, this season has been chaotic, as proven by there being five No. 1 teams over eight weeks in The Day’s Top 10 state coaches’ poll.

    4. Just because we didn’t pick your team to qualify doesn’t mean we hate you.

    Hell, we don’t even know you, man.

    5. A team receives 10 bonus points for any win by a team it beat.

    There’s also schedule strength points that award a team five points for every win by an opponent even if it lost to said opponent.

    That, and the schedule strength points, mean that programs that play winning teams gain more playoff points than programs that don’t.

    All that means is that the better the schedule, the more points a team gets.

    6. Let me remind you — this is not a competition. It’s only an exhibition. Please, no wagering.

    The state quarterfinals (Tuesday, Nov. 29) and semifinals (Sunday, Dec. 4) are hosted by the higher seeds.

    The finals are on Saturday, Dec. 10 at Arute Field at Central Connecticut State and Rentschler Field. Both will host three games at 10:30 a.m., 2 p.m. and 5 p.m.

    THIRTY SEVEN teams have (unofficially) qualified.

    ELEVEN spots (unofficially) open.

    1-2-3-4!

    CLASS LL

    UM-MMMM. …. WE THINK THEY’VE (UNOFFICIALLY) QUALIFIED

    (SUPER NO VACANCY)

    No. 1 West Haven (9-0)

    NEXT: at Fairfield Prep (6-3), TONIGHT~!

    It’s clinched a home quarterfinal with a chance to be the top seed.

    The Westies have a chance to earn 60 points in bonuses to 35 for the Cardinals. Whether or not they can get more than 30 points is in question.

    No. 2 Greenwich (8-1)

    NEXT: at Staples (8-1), Thanksgrabbing.

    It’s clinched a home quarterfinal and has a shot at being the top seed with a win.

    No. 3 Southington (8-1)

    NEXT: at Cheshire (6-3), Thanksgrabbing.

    Blue Knights get a home quarterfinal with a win.

    They can also lose and still get one because they’re so far ahead of everyone behind them. They have a 205 point lead over No. 5 Hamden, for instance.

    No. 4 Staples (8-1)

    NEXT: vs. Greenwich (8-1), Thanksgrabbing.

    The Wreckers will most likely clinch a home quarter with a win.

    Hamden could pass them because it has 80 potential bonuses (many of which aren’t great) and the Wreckers have just 15, but the Green Dragons would almost need to max out to do so.

    No. 5 Hamden (8-1)

    NEXT: vs. Notre Dame-West Haven (6-3), Thanksgrabbing.

    Best chance to get a home quarter is a win and a Staples loss. It can be seeded as high as third.

    No. 6 Trumbull (7-2)

    NEXT: at St. Joseph (8-1), Thanksgrabbing.

    Can be seeded as high as third with a win, losses by Southington, Staples and Hamden and bonuses.

    No. 7 Fairfield Prep (6-3)

    NEXT: vs. West Haven (9-0), TONIGHT~!

    The Jesuits can be seeded as high as third with a win and losses by Southington, Staples, Hamden and Trumbull. They can also best Trumbull on bonuses even Trumbull wins.

    No. 8 Glastonbury (8-2)

    NEXT: Regular season over.

    It can be the fourth seed IF Staples, Hamden, Trumbull AND Prep all lose. Yep, that’s asking a lot.

    THE EIGHT: No. 1 Greenwich (9-1) vs. No. 8 Fairfield Prep (6-4); No. 2 West Haven (10-0) vs. No. 7 Staples (8-2); No. 3. Southington (9-1) vs. No. 6 Glastonbury (8-2 — THE REMATCHENING); No. 4 Hamden (9-1) vs. No. 5 Trumbull (8-2).

    CLASS L

    UM-MMMM. …. WE THINK THEY’VE (UNOFFICIALLY) QUALIFIED

    No. 1 St. Joseph (8-1)

    NEXT: vs. Trumbull (7-2), Thanksgrabbing.

    Top seed with a win and can fall as far as fourth with a loss.

    No. 2 Naugatuck (8-1)

    NEXT: Ansonia (9-0), Thanksgrabbing.

    No worse than the second seed with a win.

    No. 3 Newtown (8-1)

    NEXT: at Masuk (7-2), TONIGHT~!

    Has a good shot at hosting a quarterfinal if it wins.

    No. 4 Maloney (8-1)

    NEXT: at Platt (6-3), Thanksgrabbing.

    Has a good shot a hosting a quarterfinal if it wins.

    No. 5 New Canaan (8-1)

    NEXT: at Darien (6-3), Thanksgrabbing.

    Rams have a shot a hosting a quarterfinal with a win but have a lower ceiling than Naugy, Newtown and Maloney, so they can use a loss by any from that trio.

    No. 7 New Milford (7-3)

    NEXT: Regular season over.

    The Green Wave (unofficially) qualified after knocking off New Fairfield on Tuesday night, 29-14. Welcome to the show, Jade Water.

    WIN-AND-IN

    No. 6 Cheshire (6-3)

    NEXT: vs. Southington (8-1), Thanksgrabbing.

    More on it in a moment.

    No. 7 Darien (6-3)

    NEXT: vs. New Canaan (8-1), Thanksgrabbing.

    Same.

    SEND HELP

    No. 9 Shelton (6-4)

    NEXT: Regular season over.

    Okay, the Gaels did their part by beating Xavier on Tuesday night, 33-13.

    What happens, then, if Cheshire and Darien lose?

    (NOTE: We botched some of this during our last bout of mathing. Thanks to Sean Patrick Bowley from GameTimeCT for getting our mangled pushcart out of the bog and back onto the track.)

    Shelton has a floor of 1,105 points. That includes a guaranteed five from the Prep-West Haven game (it lost to both teams but gets five points via the schedule strength component.)

    Darien’s floor with a loss to is 1,095. That includes 30 bonus points from Fairfield Ludlowe-Fairfield Warde, and McMahon-Norwalk (it beat all four teams) and five from losing to New Canaan.

    Cheshire’s floor with a loss is 1,100. It’s only guarantee are the five points it would get from losing to Southington.

    Shelton maxes out at 1,175 if it has five bonus games go its way.

    Cheshire, with a loss, maxes out at 1,155. That requires five bonus games to go its way.

    Darien, with a loss, maxes out at 1,125. That requires four bonus games to go its way.

    (Repeatedly slams head with car door)

    THE EIGHT: No. 1 Naugatuck (9-1) vs. No. 8 Shelton (6-4 — it’s HOT NAUGATUCK VALLEY-ON-NAUGATUCK VALLEY ACTION); No. 2 St. Joseph (8-2) vs. No. 7 New Milford (7-3); No. 3 Newtown (9-1) vs. No. 6 Darien (7-3); No. 4 Maloney (9-1) vs. No. 5 New Canaan (8-2).

    CLASS MM

    UM-MMMM. …. WE THINK THEY’VE (UNOFFICIALLY) QUALIFIED

    No. 1 Sports & Medical Sciences co-op (10-0)

    NEXT: Regular season over.

    The TIGERHAWKS are YOUR No. 1 seed.

    No. 2 Northwest United (9-0)

    NEXT: vs. Abbott Tech/Immaculate (7-1), TONIGHT~!

    Clinches the No. 2 seed with a win and can drop as far as five with a loss.

    No. 3 Killingly (8-1)

    NEXT: vs. Woodstock Academy (4-4) at Nichols College in Dudley, Mass., Thanksgrabbing.

    Clinches a home quarterfinal with a win and would be seeded no lower than three.

    No. 4 Wethersfield (8-1)

    NEXT: vs. Newington (2-7), TONIGHT~!

    Clinches a home quarterfinal with a win.

    No. 5 Thames River (9-0)

    NEXT: vs. Quinebaug Valley (5-4), TONIGHT~!

    The Crusaders (unofficially) qualified for their first playoff berth. They can, however, finish unbeaten and be seeded as low as fifth because they ended up with so many losing teams on their schedule and picked up fewer points because of it.

    No. 6 Masuk (7-2)

    NEXT: vs. Newtown (8-1), TONIGHT~!

    We somehow totally missed the scenario whereby the Panthers would (unofficially) qualify if New Milford won. Stupid maths.

    WIN-AND-IN

    No. 7 North Haven (7-2)

    NEXT: at Amity (3-6), TONIGHT~!

    The Nighthawks would still be alive if they lost because they would beat Platt for a berth if the latter lost.

    The Nighthawks could also lose and edge out Guilford for a berth, even if the latter won.

    No. 8 Platt (6-3)

    NEXT: vs. Maloney (8-1), Thanksgrabbing.

    Either it wins and goes to states or loses and its staked. That’s it.

    SEND HELP

    No. 9 Guilford (6-3)

    NEXT: vs. Hand (2-7), TONIGHT~!

    We’ll explain the Grizzlies and Wilton’s scenarios in a moment.

    No. 10 Wilton (7-3)

    NEXT: Season over.

    IF Guilford won, it would have a floor of 1,195 points if Foran beat Law on Thanksgrabbing. .... or 1,205 if Law beat Foran. It would max out at 1,245 if four bonus games go its way.

    Wilton’s floor is 1,200. It, too, can get to 1,245 but needs just three games to go its way to do so.

    The Grizzlies have the worst bonus between the teams — they’d need Woodstock to beat Killingly to earn 15 points.

    THE EIGHT: No. 1 SMSA (10-0) vs. No. 8 Wilton (7-3); No. 2 Killingly (9-1) vs. No. 7 Masuk (7-3); No. 3 Wethersfield (9-1) vs. No. 6 North Haven (8-2); No. 4 Northwest United (9-1) vs. No. 5 Thames River (10-0).

    CLASS M

    UM-MMMM. …. WE THINK THEY QUALIFIED

    No. 1 Berlin (10-0)

    NEXT: Regular season over.

    The Redcoats are YOUR No. 1 seed.

    No. 2 Law (8-1)

    NEXT: vs. Foran (9-0), Thanksgrabbing.

    Clinches a top three seed with a win.

    No. 3 Abbott Tech/Immaculate (8-1)

    NEXT: at Northwest United (9-0), TONIGHT~!

    Clinches a home quarterfinal with a win.

    No. 4 Rockville (7-2)

    NEXT: at Ellington (7-2), Thanksgrabbing.

    Odds aren’t as good to host a home quarter as they are for the previous two teams, more so if Notre Dame wins.

    No. 5 Notre Dame-West Haven (6-3)

    NEXT: vs. at Hamden (8-1), Thanksgrabbing.

    A top five seed, win or lose. Might host a home quarterfinal with a win, too.

    No. 6 RHAM (6-3)

    NEXT: vs. Bacon Academy (1-8), Thanksgrabbing.

    Raptors are making their first trip to states and all but locked into the sixth spot, win or lose.

    LET’S GET WILD, WILD, WILD

    No. 7 Hartford Public (5-4)

    NEXT: vs. Weaver (2-7), Thanksgrabbing.

    No. 8 Branford (4-5)

    NEXT: at East Haven (2-7), Thanksgrabbing.

    No. 9 East Lyme (4-5)

    NEXT: vs. Waterford (5-4), Thanksgrabbing.

    Public has a big edge over the other two because its floor with a win is 965, Branford’s is 925 and East Lyme’s is 905.

    Odds are, then, that the Owls will qualify and leave Branford and East Lyme fighting for the final berth.

    Branford certainly has the edge in opponent.

    Branford would max out at 970 if five games went its way.

    The Vikings would max out at 965 if six games went its way. What hurts them, though, is they’re relying on the likes of Bacon Academy (1-8) to beat RHAM, and Woodstock to beat Killingly, in order to get 30 bonus points.

    Not good.

    SEND HELP

    No. 11 Woodstock Academy (4-5)

    NEXT: vs. Killingly (8-1) at Nichols College, Thanksgrabbing.

    Say the Centaurs stunned Killingly. They’d have a floor of 875 points.

    They’d need SEVEN games to go their way in order to max out at 950.

    Here are their many problems, however:

    1. They’d lost five points if East Lyme lost.

    2. They could really use a loss by East Lyme.

    Branford, however, beat Waterford, so if the latter beat East Lyme, then it gets 15 points.

    3. Branford and Woodstock both get five points if Guilford beat Hand.

    4. They’d lose 15 bonus points if Public beats Weaver (and it should).

    5. They need Bacon to beat RHAM.

    ALIVE BUT BARELY BREATHING

    No. 10 Avon (5-5)

    NEXT: Regular season over.

    It needs two of the three to lose — Public, Branford or East Lyme.

    The odds are in both Public and Branford’s favor to win.

    No. 11 Lyman Hall (4-5)

    NEXT: at Sheehan (4-5), Thanksgrabbing.

    What we just wrote about Avon applies to the Trojans.

    THE EIGHT: No. 1 Berlin (10-0) vs. No. 8 Branford (5-5); No. 2 Law (9-1) vs. No. 7 Hartford Public (6-4); No. 3. Abbott Tech/Immaculate (9-1) vs. No. 6 RHAM (7-3); No. 4 Rockville (8-2) vs. No. 5 Notre Dame-West Haven (6-4).

    CLASS SS

    UM-MMMM. …. WE THINK THEY QUALIFIED

    No. 1 Foran (9-0)

    NEXT: at Law (8-1), Thanksgrabbing.

    It will be the top seed with a win. It can fall as far as fifth with a loss.

    No. 2 Cromwell/Portland (8-1)

    NEXT: vs. Rocky Hill (6-3), TONIGHT~!

    A top five seed, win-or-lose. A top three seed if it wins.

    No. 3 Windham (9-1)

    NEXT: Regular season over.

    Its win over Montville earned it a top three seed. Could be the top seed if Crom/Port and Foran both lost.

    No. 6 Granby/Canton (8-2)

    NEXT: Regular season over.

    Will be seeded between fourth and sixth.

    WIN-AND-IN

    No. 4 Ledyard (8-1)

    NEXT: at Fitch (5-4), Thanksgrabbing.

    It can earn a home quarterfinal with a win. There’s a mathematical chance Barlow could pass it if both won, but, again, it’s a mere mathematical chance.

    Ledyard would also qualify with losses by either Barlow, Ellington, Gilbert or Rocky Hill.

    No. 5 Barlow (7-2)

    NEXT: at Weston (4-5), TONIGHT~!

    It can be seeded as high as No. 3 if nearly everything goes its way (which it won’t, but we’re acknowledging the potentiality of the maths.)

    No. 7 Rocky Hill (7-2)

    NEXT: at Cromwell/Portland (8-1), TONIGHT~!

    It’s all but staked if it lost.

    No. 8 Gilbert/Northwestern/Housatonic (7-2)

    NEXT: vs. St. Paul (4-5), Thanksgrabbing.

    The Yellowjackets are among the few teams that made Ansonia sweat, so we’re not going to bother with what must happen if they lose.

    SEND HELP

    No. 9 Valley Regional/Old Lyme (9-1)

    NEXT: Regular season over.

    The WARRIORCATS~! did what they needed to do by knocking off Haddam-Killingworth on Tuesday night.

    Their best hope is if Cromwell/Portland beats Rocky Hill because the chances of Gilbert losing sure ain’t great.

    No. 10 Ellington (7-2)

    NEXT: vs. Rockville (7-2), Thanksgrabbing.

    The Knights must win and hope that Rocky Hill and Gilbert lose.

    THE EIGHT: No. 1 Cromwell/Portland (9-1) vs. No. 8 Valley Regional/Old Lyme (9-1 — THE REMATCHENING); No. 2 Windham (9-1) vs. No. 7 Gilbert/Northwestern/Housatonic (8-2); No. 3 Foran (9-1) vs. No. 6 Granby/Canton (8-2); No. 4 Ledyard (9-1) vs. No. 5 Barlow (8-2).

    CLASS S, or, THE NAUGATUCK VALLEY LEAGUE JAMBOREE

    UM-MMMM. …. WE THINK THEY QUALIFIED

    No. 1 Ansonia (9-0)

    NEXT: at Naugatuck (8-1), Thanksgrabbing.

    The Chargers are YOUR No. 1 seed.

    No. 2 Holy Cross (7-2)

    NEXT: at Wolcott (2-7), Thanksgrabbing.

    It’ll be a top three seed, win or lose.

    No. 3 Bloomfield (8-2)

    NEXT: Regular season over.

    The WARHAWKS will be seeded second or third but odds are they’ll be second.

    No. 4 Woodland (7-2)

    NEXT: at Seymour (6-3), TONIGHT~!

    Its locked in as the fourth seed, win or lose.

    No. 5 East Catholic (6-3)

    NEXT: vs. Northwest Catholic (2-7), TONIGHT~!

    The Eagles would likely be seeded fifth if Woodland won, or sixth if Seymour won.

    No. 6 New Fairfield (7-3)

    NEXT: Regular season over.

    The odds are against East Catholic losing, so we won’t bother with that.

    The REBELS would most likely be sixth if Woodland won or seventh if Seymour won.

    No. 7 Seymour (6-3)

    NEXT: vs. Woodland (7-2), TONIGHT~!

    It can get as high as fifth.

    WIN-AND-IN

    No. 9 North Branford (5-4)

    NEXT: vs. Coginchaug/Hale-Ray/East Hampton (1-8), TONIGHT~!

    The Thunderbirds have won three in a row to get themselves into contention.

    It had lost three in a row prior to that with the last of those losses to. .... H-K (15-14, Oct. 21).

    SEND HELP

    No. 8 Haddam-Killingworth (6-4)

    NEXT: Regular season over.

    The Cougars qualify if North Branford loses. Now go back and check Coginchaug’s record.

    SEND HELP

    THE EIGHT: No. 1 Ansonia (9-1) vs. No. 8 North Branford (6-4); No. 2 Bloomfield (8-2) vs. No. 7 New Fairfield (7-3); No. 3. Holy Cross (8-2) vs. No. 6 East Catholic (7-3); No. 4 Woodland (7-3) vs. No. 5 Seymour (7-3).

    • • • •

    That’s all for now.

    We’re going to (try to) update this again the Thankgrabbing Eve games, emphasis on “try to.

    Thanks for reading.

    Listen to Every Time I Die (RIP).

    HAPPY THANKSGRABBING~!....

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