A tale of two leaders facing a crisis
A Quinnipiac University poll released last week showed Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont with a remarkable approval rating of 65% compared to just 26% who are disapproving of his performance. Concerning his handling of the pandemic, the approval rating was higher, 78%, with only 17% disapproving.
Remarkable because when the year began, the Democratic governor had an approval rating of 28%, among the lowest in the nation, according to a Sacred Heart University poll. It had only inched up slightly, to 31%, as recently as March.
And this approval comes despite grim numbers. At 78 COVID-19 deaths per 100,000, Connecticut ranks only behind New York and New Jersey. About 2,800 Connecticut deaths have been attributed to the virus.
The easy explanation for Lamont's approval ratings would be that citizens rally around their leader in a time of crisis. And certainly, that is part of it. No doubt when the crisis eases some, and the debate and decision-making turns to more traditional policy questions of spending and taxation, Lamont’s approval numbers will slide.
But rallying around the leader in crisis is not the only explanation. If it were, how would President Trump’s numbers be explained?
After a brief uptick in the president’s poll numbers when the seriousness of the COVID-19 pandemic began to set in, and Trump announced the formation of a special task force to manage it, his support has been steadily sinking.
The FiveThirtyEight statistical analysis website finds an average of several polls, adjusted for biases, give President Trump an approval rating of 43.4% and a disapproval rating of 51.4% as of Friday. This is unprecedented in the period of modern poll keeping. Americans tend to support their president when the nation is threatened. President George W. Bush saw his approval sore to around 90% after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
More concerning for a president a few months from an election is that he has lost ground in pivotal swing states and now trails likely Democratic nominee Joe Biden among voters 65 and older, a voting bloc he must win to get a second term.
So why the soaring approval numbers for Gov. Lamont and the sinking numbers for President Trump?
The public, confronted with uncertainty, wants a steady hand at the wheel, the confidence that there is a plan. People are willing to put up with a lot, to make necessary sacrifices, as long as leadership reassures them it has a destination and a strategy to get there.
Lamont has done this. Trump has not.
In closing down schools, businesses and events, Lamont, the members of his administration and the experts he has called upon have explained why. The goal was to keep the most serious cases of COVID-19 infection from overwhelming hospitals. It was achieved.
The greatest disappointment, with tragic consequences, was the death toll as the virus spread through nursing homes, accounting now for 60% of the COVID-19 fatalities in the state. But Lamont did not offer excuses or seek to shift blame. His administration has responded, carrying out inspections throughout the nursing homes and moving more resources to them. This, too, reassures the public.
And now, using the metric of dropping hospitalization rates, the governor has laid out a plan to gradually reopen.
The president, in his rambling press conferences, his lack of a clear message, his refusal to accept any blame, has unnerved — not reassured — the nation.
When others were warning that the United States faced a serious threat, Trump characterized the alarm as just another political concoction to stir opposition against him. He has gone from praising China’s response to trying to shift all blame its way.
The administration’s early travel ban was much ballyhooed, but not effective, with hundreds of thousands getting through.
Trump’s task force laid out a solid plan providing states specific guidelines to meet before reopening, offering the prospects of consistency. But the administration walked away from it, offering no pushback to states that opened in contradiction to its guidelines, with the president praising protestors who defied governors seeking to meet its provisions.
Essentially, the governor has met the test of leadership a crisis provides. The president has not.
The Day editorial board meets with political, business and community leaders to formulate editorial viewpoints. It is composed of President and Publisher Timothy Dwyer, Executive Editor Izaskun E. Larraneta, Owen Poole, copy editor, and Lisa McGinley, retired deputy managing editor. The board operates independently from The Day newsroom.
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