Log In


Reset Password
  • MENU
    Real Estate
    Thursday, April 25, 2024

    Housing confidence hits record high in Fannie Mae survey for April

    Although confidence in the housing market has been volatile in recent months according to Fannie Mae's monthly surveys, respondents were much more confident as the spring real estate market kicked into high gear.

    The survey's Home Purchase Sentiment Index rose to 91.7, a record high. This figure is calculated based on the net response to several questions in Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey, including whether respondents thought it was a good time to buy or sell a home, anticipated changes in home prices and mortgage rates, perceived job security, and changes in household income in the past year.

    "High home prices and good economic conditions helped push the share of Americans who think it's a good time to sell to a fresh record high," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "However, the upward trend in the good-time-to-sell share seen since last spring has done little to release more for-sale inventory. The tightest supply in decades, combined with rising mortgage rates from historically low levels, will likely remain a hurdle for mobility and a persistent headwind for home sales."

    Sixty-eight percent of respondents said they thought it was a good time to sell a home, up 2 percentage points from March and surging 11 percentage points from April 2017. Twenty-three percent thought it was a bad time to sell, down 4 percentage points from the previous month and a year-over-year drop of 8 percentage points.

    Although a record number of respondents thought it was a good time to list a home, many might wonder if they should hold off for a more profitable sale. Fifty-five percent said they expect home prices to rise in the next 12 months, up 4 percentage points from March and 2 percentage points from April 2017. Only 6 percent said they think prices will drop, down 3 percentage points from the previous month and 2 percentage points from the previous year.

    On average, respondents said they think home prices will grow by 3.9 percent in the next 12 months. This was up from an expectation of 3 percent annual growth in both the previous month and previous year.

    Respondents were slightly more likely to be pessimistic about the home buying market, with 32 percent considering it a bad time to purchase a home – up from 30 percent in March and 27 percent in April 2017. Sixty-one percent thought it was a good time to buy a home, down 1 percentage point from both the previous month and previous year.

    Fifty-four percent of respondents said they thought it would be easy to get a mortgage, down 5 percentage points from March and 3 percentage points from April 2017. The share of respondents expecting that it would be difficult to get a mortgage rose from 37 percent in March and 39 percent in April 2017 to 43 percent.

    Fifty-four percent said they believe buyers will face higher mortgage rates in the next 12 months, down from 57 percent in March and 62 percent in April 2017. Six percent said they believe rates will drop, up 1 percentage point from both the previous month and previous year.

    Despite the challenges respondents perceived for buyers, most still considered buying a home to be preferable to renting. Sixty-one percent said they think rents will increase in the next 12 months, up 3 percentage points from the previous month and 9 percentage points from the previous year. Only 2 percent said they believe rents will go down, unchanged from March and a year-over-year drop of 1 percentage point.

    The average respondent said they think rents will climb by 5.7 percent in the next 12 months. This was up from an estimate of 4.5 percent in the March survey and 4 percent in the April 2017 survey.

    Two-thirds of respondents said they would buy their next home if they were to move, down from 70 percent in March and 67 percent in April 2017. Twenty-eight percent said they would rent, up 2 percentage points from the previous month but unchanged from the previous year.

    Respondents showed some more economic confidence, with 54 percent saying they believe their personal financial situation will improve in the next 12 months. This was up from 47 percent in April 2017 and 52 percent in March. Eleven percent said they think their financial situation will worsen, unchanged from the previous month and down 1 percentage point from the previous year.

    Twenty-eight percent said their household income was higher than it was a year ago, unchanged from March and up 3 percentage points from April 2017. Ten percent said their income was lower, down from 11 percent in March and 12 percent in April 2017.

    Eighty-eight percent said they weren't worried about losing their job in the next 12 months, the same share as a year ago and 3 percentage points higher than in March. Twelve percent said they were worried about unemployment, down 2 percentage points from the previous month but a year-over-year increase of 1 percentage point.

    Fifty-one percent said they thought the United States economy was on the right track, down from 54 percent in March but a year-over-year improvement of 5 percentage points. Thirty-eight percent said they thought the economy is on the wrong track, unchanged from the previous month and down from 39 percent in April 2017.

    The Fannie Mae National Housing Survey, which has been issued each month since June 2010, includes more than 100 questions to gauge changes in attitudes on the housing market and economy. Each survey interviews about 1,000 American adults via telephone.

    Comment threads are monitored for 48 hours after publication and then closed.