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    Real Estate
    Wednesday, April 24, 2024

    Fannie Mae survey suggests expectations for improved affordability

    Americans started 2019 with slightly higher expectations for a more affordable housing market, Fannie Mae concluded after reviewing the findings of its monthly National Housing Survey in January.

    The Home Purchase Sentiment Index for the month stood at 84.7, up 1.2 points from December but a year-over-year drop of 4.8 points. This index is based on the net results for six survey categories, including opinions on whether it is a good time to buy or sell a home, expected changes to home prices and mortgage rates, perceived job security, and changes to household income.

    Respondents were more likely to consider it a good time to buy, expect mortgage rates to fall, and report higher household income than those in December. But net responses were unchanged or down on an annual basis in all categories except household income, where a record net share of 27 percent of respondents said their income has improved from the previous year.

    Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae, said the survey results suggest that people are more likely to expect improved affordability in housing in the coming year. The net share of respondents expecting home prices to increase in the next 12 months hit its lowest point since 2012, and fewer people said they think mortgage rates will climb during this same period.

    "Overall, these results are in line with our forecast that, amid improving affordability conditions, home sales should stabilize in 2019 after declining last year for the first time in four years," said Duncan.

    Fifty-three percent of respondents said they consider it a good time to buy a home, ticking up 1 percentage point from December but down 6 percentage points from January 2018. Thirty-eight percent said they think it's a bad time to buy a home, down 3 points from the previous month but up 6 points from the previous year.

    Fifty-nine percent said they expect mortgage rates to increase in the next 12 months, which was a year-over-year increase of 4 percentage points but down 2 percentage points from the previous month. Six percent said they think rates will fall, up 1 percentage point from both the previous month and previous year.

    Fifty-five percent said they thought it would be easy to get a mortgage, unchanged from the previous month but down 2 percentage points from the previous year. Forty-two percent said they thought it would be difficult to get a mortgage, a year-over-year increase of 3 percentage points but down from 43 percent in December.

    Sixty-eight percent said they would buy their next home if they were to move, up from 66 percent in December and 67 percent in January 2018. The share indicating that they would rent their next home fell from 28 percent in January 2018 and 29 percent in December to 27 percent.

    Fifty-eight percent said they expect home rental prices to increase in the next 12 months, unchanged from the previous month and down 1 percentage point from the previous year. Six percent said they think rents will fall, up from 3 percent in December and 4 percent in January 2018. On average, respondents expected rents to increase by 3.8 percent – down from 4.7 percent in the previous month and 4.8 percent in the previous year.

    Attitudes toward home selling conditions remained relatively unchanged, with 63 percent considering it a good time to list a home – down 1 percentage point from the previous month and 2 percentage points from the previous year. For the third consecutive month, 28 percent said they thought it was a bad time to sell a home – a 1 percentage point increase from January 2018.

    Forty-five percent said they think home prices will go up in the next 12 months, unchanged from the previous month but a drop of 13 percentage points from the previous year. Fifteen percent said they think home prices will go down, up from 14 percent in December and 6 percent in January 2018.

    The average respondent said they expect home prices to increase by 1.6 percent in the next 12 months. This was down from 2.3 percent in the previous month and 3.7 percent in the previous year.

    Eighty-six percent said they were not concerned about losing their job, down 3 percentage points from December but unchanged on an annual basis. Thirteen percent said they were worried about potentially losing their job, the same as in January 2018 and up 3 percentage points from December.

    Respondents were more likely to report better financial circumstances, with 34 percent saying their household income was significantly higher than it was 12 months ago – up 3 percentage points from December and 7 percentage points from January 2018. The share reporting a significantly lower income fell from 11 percent in January 2018 and 12 percent in December to 7 percent.

    Fifty-one percent said they expect their personal financial situation to get better in the next 12 months, up 3 percentage points from December but a year-over-year drop of 1 percentage point. Eleven percent said they think their personal financial situation will worsen, down 1 percentage point from the previous month but up 1 percentage point from the previous year.

    Forty-nine percent said they thought the U.S. economy was on the right track, down 1 percentage point from both the previous month and previous year. The share of respondents considering the economy to be on the wrong track has increased steadily in recent months, rising from 33 percent in October to 43 percent in January – a year-over-year increase of 5 percentage points.

    Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey has been issued each month since June 2010. Approximately 1,000 Americans are interviewed via telephone and asked more than 100 questions to track changes in attitude toward housing and economic issues.

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