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    Thursday, April 25, 2024

    Study: Residential mobility declines in recent decades

    Americans are about half as likely to move to a new home as they were in the 1980s, according to a recent study by Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. The report says that while the reasons for this decline in mobility are unclear, it has affected a variety of areas including neighborhood demographics and housing affordability.

    The recently released research brief, "Are Americans Stuck in Place? Declining Residential Mobility in the U.S.," noted nearly one in five people in the United States moved each year during the 1980s. By contrast, just one in 10 people changed addresses between 2018 and 2019.

    Younger adults, renters, and lower income earners were more likely to move, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Just 6 percent of homeowners relocated in 2018, along with 11 percent of those in the top income quartile.

    Mobility rates among those most likely to move have fallen significantly compared to recent decades. Nearly 40 percent of those between the ages of 20 and 24 relocated in 1976, but this share had fallen below 25 percent in 2016. Despite a growing number of renters between 2006 and 2018, the share of renters who moved fell from 32 percent in the former year to 24 percent in the latter.

    Census data also determined that most moves were local, with 65 percent of those who relocated finding a new home in the same county. Seventeen stayed within the state, while 14 percent moved to a different state.

    Nearly half of local moves—49 percent—were due to a housing reason such as finding a larger residence, according to a 2019 Census survey. Twenty-eight percent moved locally for family reasons. Fifty-one percent of those making a long-distance move did so for a job, with 25 percent doing so for family reasons.

    However, local mobility rates were down sharply from the 1980s. In that decade, the rate stood at 15 percent; it was down to 9 percent in 2019.

    Researchers said that several states, such as Arizona and other popular retirement destinations, rely on interstate migration to grow their households. The report also says that economists have argued that high migration rates allow for a more flexible and adaptable labor market. One economist has suggested that cities attract more educated residents and offer higher incomes, but that the high cost of living serves as a barrier to lower income residents, creating a form of economic segregation.

    The report concludes that higher housing costs may be limiting residential mobility, along with a rise in dual-income households or work-from-home arrangements that make relocation more difficult or less necessary. While researchers said that people are less likely to move as they grow older and that the baby boomer generation is more likely to stay put as they reach retirement age, they also concluded that mobility declines were more apparent within age groups and only accounted for about one-third of the overall decline.

    Researchers said the report was completed before they could account for the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on residential mobility. However, they theorize that the pandemic will likely result in a decline in home sales while lower mortgage rates will encourage more Americans to refinance their mortgages, giving them more incentive to stay in their current home and further decreasing mobility. The report also suggests that the increase in work-from-home arrangements during the pandemic could lead to a greater shift to this arrangement, further reducing the number of relocations made to be closer to an employer.

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