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    Tuesday, April 16, 2024

    Betting lines suggest NFL has rarely been more imbalanced

    For all the narratives about how the salary cap allegedly offers the National Football League a better chance at competitive balance — it's how small-market Green Bay can compete with New York, the advocates say — I'll submit that this week's betting lines suggest the NFL has rarely been more imbalanced.

    Four teams are double-digit underdogs this week. And one isn't the Giants, whose offensive impotence makes them a candidate for football Viagra.

    I can't recall many weeks like this: Tampa giving 13.5 at the Jets; Buffalo laying 14 vs. Atlanta; New England giving 16 vs. Jacksonville; San Francisco laying 15 vs. Houston.

    So, what is a bettor to do?

    Lay the wood.

    It's scary sometimes to think that NFL teams will be able to dominate other NFL teams and cover big lines. After all, they're all NFL players. This isn't college when Alabama gets to play Alcorn State.

    But big favorites cover more often than not. According to a gambling web site that tracks such things, double-digit favorites are 23-16-2 this season.

    First, it's kind of hard to fathom that double-digit lines have occurred in 41 NFL games already this weekend. Again: They kill baseball over competitive imbalance for its lack of a salary cap? This tells me there are some incompetent front offices in the NFL.

    Otherwise, the favorites' penchant to cover says to bet them with more conviction this weekend. I'm not sure how engaged double-digit underdogs (three on the road) with nothing to play for will be at this point in the season. Meanwhile, Tampa, Buffalo, San Francisco and New England are all playing for more important things.

    So, if you are so inclined to make a wager, I wouldn't be scared. There are some bad teams in the NFL right now. A good chunk are double-digit underdogs for good reason. And if the Giants were playing anyone else but the Bears, they'd be a big underdog, too.

    Here are the week's best bets:

    • Ned Griffen: Green Bay (-6.5 v. Minnesota). "Domed teams don't do well in cold weather, and temperatures are projected to be in the single digits at night this weekend in Lambeau Country."

    Vickie Fulkerson: Eagles (-3.5 over Washington). "Did you not see last week's Washington score?"

    Chuck Banning: Utah (+6.5 vs. Ohio State). "Ohio State is coming off a loss in the Big Ten final and will treat this like a consolation prize. Utah is coming off a dominating win in the Pac-12 final and considers playing in the Rose Bowl an honor."

    Dave Davis: Vikings (+6.5 at Packers). "Every time I think somebody is the best team in the NFL (Bucs, Cardinals, Bills) I find out I'm wrong. And I think the Packers are the best team in the NFL right now."

    Gavin Keefe: Dallas (-4 at Arizona). "Judging from my record, I clearly have no clue what I'm doing when it comes to picking games. With that said, randomly picking Dallas, so bet heavily on Arizona."

    Mikey D: Oklahoma State (+2 vs. Notre Dame). Not a fan of picking bowl games. But given that Notre Dame is a national team — people like to bet them — this line seems tantalizing. Translation: The entire world will bet Notre Dame here laying only two. That's the cue to go the other way. Same argument applies for the Penn State-Arkansas game. Penn State is a national team laying only two. Most of the money goes there. So, take Arkansas.

    This is the opinion of Day sports columnist Mike DiMauro

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