Almost 76 million autonomous vehicles will have been sold by the year 2035, the research firm IHS Automotive is predicting.

This figure is significantly higher than previous estimates and is based on substantial interest in self-driving vehicle technology. IHS Automotive cited research and development efforts by automakers, investment by supplier and technology companies, and activity in a variety of regulatory environments.

"Global sales of autonomous vehicles will reach 600,000 units in 2025," said Egil Juilussen, director of research at IHS Automotive. "Our forecast reflects a 43 percent compound annual growth rate between 2025 and 2035 – a decade of substantial growth, as driverless and self-driving cars alike are more widely adopted in all key automotive markets."

The forecast expects that there will be almost 21 million autonomous vehicle sales in the year 2035 alone. IHS Automotive believes that nearly 76 million vehicles with some degree of autonomy will be sold in the world between the present day and that year.

The research firm says its forecasts are based on a number of factors, such as the development of foundational technologies critical for the implementation of self-driving vehicles, research and development announcements, and the growth of ride sharing and car sharing programs. The financial research company CB Insights noted in April that 30 corporations are working on autonomous vehicle initiatives. IHS Automotive says there have also been several partnerships that aim to support the development of autonomous vehicles.

"Future mobility will connect and combine many different modes and technologies, and autonomous vehicles will play a central role," said Jeremy Carlson, principal analyst at IHS Automotive. "IHS expects entirely new vehicle segments to be created, in addition to traditional vehicles adding autonomous capabilities. Consumers gain new choices in personal mobility to complement mass transit, and these new choices will increasingly use battery electric and other efficient means of propulsion."

The forecast suggests that the United States will be a world leader in the early development and adoption of self-driving vehicles. It expects the first deployment of several thousand autonomous vehicles in 2020, growing to an annual sales rate of 4.5 million vehicles in 2035.

China is expected to be the largest market for autonomous vehicles in 2035, with 5.7 million sales in that year. In addition to consumer demand for new technologies, IHS Automotive believes additional growth may be possible if regulators determine that autonomous vehicles will be able to address concerns with traffic safety and pollution.

Demand for autonomous vehicles is also expected to be high in Europe, with 4.2 million sales in 2035. The forecast expects that there will be more than 1 million additional sales in the Middle East and Africa in that year.

IHS Automotive believes Japan will increase its investment and development efforts in advance of the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo. It expects that there will be almost 1.2 million vehicles with some degree of autonomy sold in Japan and South Korea in 2035.

Developers have to address a number of concerns related to autonomous vehicle technology before it becomes more commonplace. These include local and federal guidelines, software reliability, and cybersecurity.

The technology will also have to combat a continuing reticence among many drivers toward the idea of having a vehicle drive itself. A recent survey by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute found that 46 percent of respondents preferred to keep control over the vehicle, with only 16 percent favoring a completely self-driving vehicle.

"The future fleets of driverless vehicles will provide mobility services for anyone and anything, creating exciting and new opportunities for the automotive industry," said Juliussen. "Increasing competition from the high-tech and other industries is accelerating the auto industry's autonomous software and cybersecurity development efforts. Those who don't adjust to a changing world will unfortunately be left behind, or will at least face a very different industry."