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    Saturday, April 27, 2024

    Could Malloy benefit if GOP gains seats?

    If Donald Trump at the top of the ticket doesn’t screw it up, Republicans have a realistic chance of gaining control of the state Senate in November and continuing to erode the majority grip Democrats have on the House of Representatives.

    And not that he would admit it, even if he did think it, but a stronger Republican hand in Hartford might just make Democratic Gov. Dannel P. Malloy’s job easier in 2017.

    The people of Connecticut are not a happy bunch. They are tired of the state’s continuing fiscal problems and troubled that a couple of large tax increases passed during Malloy’s time in office did not fix them. Last week The Pew Charitable Trusts released its analysis that showed Connecticut has one of the most serious debt problems in the nation, largely tied to its grossly underfunded pension plan for state workers.

    Connecticut’s economic recovery since the Great Recession has been slower than most every other state. And by the administration’s own admission, the jobs gained are paying far less on average than the jobs that were lost.

    That these problems extend back long before Malloy took office — caused by years of inadequate funding of the pension system and the rapid expansion of state government when times were good — is of little consequence to most voters.

    Malloy has been in office five years. He owns the problems.

    His refusal (correctly) to consider any tax increases in the most recent legislative session, and to turn to state employee layoffs to balance the budget, has eroded his support among labor, while failing to convert his critics.

    This explains why Morning Consult, which provides data-consulting information to leaders in government and industry, found that Malloy — with an approval rating of 29 percent and a disapproval number of 64 percent — rates better than only one other governor. Republican Gov. Sam Brownback of Kansas, whose tax-cut policies created a fiscal disaster for a state that had been doing well money-wise, fared worse with approval/disapproval numbers of 26 percent and 65 percent.

    Which is why Republicans running for state House and Senate seats will be running against Malloy, his policies and the condition of Connecticut, even though the governor is only midway through his second term and not up for re-election. They will have a strong argument that putting state government in control of only one party is not working well.

    I talked with Senate Minority Leader Len Fasano (R-North Haven) about where he felt the Republicans had the best chance to pick up Senate seats. While expressing confidence the Republicans could win the Senate, Fasano declined to point to specific races.

    Fasano, I suspect, feared pointing to some candidates as particularly strong for the party would not be received well by those candidates who did not make the list.

    He did agree, however, with the widely held perception that one of the best chances for Republicans is in the 18th District, a seat being vacated by the retirement of five-term incumbent Democrat Andy Maynard. Republican Heather Somers, a former candidate for lieutenant governor and former Groton mayor, is considered the favorite over former state Rep. Tim Bowles, a Democrat who lost his bid for re-election in 2014 after just one term in office.

    How could Republicans gaining seats, and perhaps capturing the Senate, help Malloy? The state’s fiscal situation is not going to get better anytime soon. Tough decisions in controlling labor costs and managing the pension plan remain. That task may actually be easier for the governor if Republicans have political leverage and are part of the legislative bartering.

    Leading the way to some bipartisan agreements might even boost the governor’s approval rating in 2017. It can’t get much lower.

    Paul Choiniere is the editorial page editor.

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