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    Friday, April 26, 2024

    Seller confidence improves, economic opinions falter in latest Fannie Mae housing survey

    People were more pessimistic about their personal finances and the ease of buying a home in March, according to the monthly National Housing Survey issued by Fannie Mae. However, a record number of respondents also said they consider it a good time to sell a home.

    Forty-six percent of respondents said they considered it a good time to sell, up 6 percent from February and 8 percent from March of 2014. Sixty-six percent said they thought it was a good time to buy, sliding 1 percent from February and 3 percent from last year.

    The declining optimism on buying was reflected in respondents' preferences for their next home if they were to move. Those who said they would buy a home if they were to move fell 5 percent from February and 8 percent from March of 2014 to 60 percent, an all-time low for the survey. Those who said they would rent increased to 34 percent, up from 28 percent in March of 2014 and 29 percent in February.

    In household income, 22 percent of the respondents said they were making significantly more money than 12 months ago; this marked a drop of 2 percent from February, but was 1 percent higher than March of 2014. Sixty-one percent said their household income was about the same as a year ago, the same as in February and 2 percent less than March of 2014. Those saying they were making significantly less money than a year ago stood at 15 percent, up 3 percent from February and 1 percent from the prior year's March survey.

    The share of respondents who expect their personal financial situation to improve in the next year has declined steadily since January, falling from 48 percent in that month to 46 percent in February and 44 percent in March; however, this was 2 percent above the level of March of 2014. Forty-four percent expected their financial situation to stay about the same, up 2 percent from February but down 1 percent from last year. Fourteen percent expect their financial situation to worsen, an increase of 3 percent from February and 2 percent from March of 2014.

    "We've seen modest improvement in total compensation resulting from a strengthened labor market. However, income growth perceptions and personal financial expectations both eased off of recent highs, consistent with [the April 3] weak jobs report," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "Simultaneously, the share of consumers expecting to buy on their next move has declined. We believe the recent setback in consumer sentiment should be short lived if early signs of income growth bear out and occur in proportion to expected interest rate increases. Meanwhile, the wait for housing expansion continues."

    The average expectation for the 12-month change in home prices was 2.7 percent. This was the same as March of 2014 and a 0.2 percent increase from February.

    Similarly, the share of respondents expecting prices to increase stood at 48 percent, the same as the year before and a 2 percent increase from February. Those expecting prices to fall decreased from 42 percent in March of 2014 and 41 percent in February to 39 percent. Eight percent expect prices to fall, up 2 percent from February and 3 percent from a year ago.

    Respondents anticipated more change in rent, with an average expected 12-month change of 4 percent – the same as February and a 0.2 percent drop from last year. Fifty-three percent expect home rental prices to go up in the next 12 months, 1 percent higher than both February and March of 2014. Thirty-eight percent expect rents to hold steady, the same as February and down 3 percent from the prior year. Only 4 percent expect rents to go down, the same as last year and a 1 percent increase from the prior month's survey.

    Fifty-two percent expect mortgage rates to go up in the next year, up 4 percent from February but 2 percent less than the same time in 2014. Those expecting rates to stay the same fell from 38 percent in March of 2014 and 40 percent in February to 37 percent. Four percent expect rates to go down, a 1 percent increase from a year ago and a 2 percent drop from February.

    After hitting a record high of 54 percent in February, the share of those who think it would be easy to get a mortgage dropped back to 50 percent, 2 percent lower than last year. Forty-six percent said they think it would be difficult to get a mortgage, a 3 percent increase from February but a 1 percent drop from March of 2014.

    Feelings on the economy also retreated from a record high in February, when 47 percent of respondents said they thought the economy was on the right track. This share fell to 43 percent, although it was still 10 percent higher than March of 2014.

    Forty-eight percent said they thought the economy was on the wrong track. This marked a 3 percent increase from February, but was 10 percent lower than a year ago.

    Thirty-five percent said their household expenses were significantly higher than a year ago, a 4 percent increase from February and a 2 percent increase from March of 2014. Fifty-two percent said their expenses have remained about the same, a drop of 5 percent from February and 6 percent from a year ago. Twelve percent said their expenses have fallen significantly, up 3 percent from February and 4 percent from March of 2014.

    The Fannie Mae National Housing Survey polls 1,000 Americans via live telephone interviews, asking more than 100 questions to gauge their opinions on the housing market, economy, and personal finances. The first survey was conducted in June of 2010.

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