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    Friday, April 26, 2024

    There's four weeks left in the season. That means it's time for BRACKETOLOGY

    Howdy,

    We had planned for something else to lead off this here blog and be posted Monday, but said plans fell through.

    We promised to provide YOU with something to enjoy Monday or Tuesday, and gosh-diddily-darnit, we’re people of our word here at Polecat Worldwide HQ.

    What to write instead? We couldn’t think of anything else to fill this here space but. …. BRACKETOLOGY.

    (Wait, which headache are we about to put ourselves through?)

    TRANSPARENCY — we’re failures at the maths and have our permanent records to prove it. It’s for that reason — and the fact that some teams have four regular season games left — that we’re going to pass on trying to figure out who could qualify when. For this week. At least.

    Instead, we’ll give a quick overview of how we think things will shake out (quick overview subject to change).

    Remember, just because we didn’t pick your team to qualify doesn’t mean we hate you. Hell, we DON'T EVEN KNOW YOU, man. Should you choose to believe that this is the worst insult you’ve ever suffered, then use it as motivation and go on to win a state title. We also expect an invitation and free meal at your year-end banquet for providing you with the extra incentive you needed.

    Also, to quote the greatest personality in TV history, David Letterman, “This is an exhibition, not a competition. Please, no wagering.”

    Remember, kids — the top eight teams in each division qualify, and a bonus is the 10 points a team earns for every win by any opponent it beat.

    The quarterfinals (Tuesday, Nov. 29) and semifinals (Monday, Dec. 5) will be played at the higher seed. The finals will be played either Friday, Dec. 9 or Saturday, Dec. 10 at sites to be determined.

    Once again, into the breach:

    CLASS LL

    LOCKS: No. 1 Darien (7-0), No. 2 Southington (7-0), No. 3 Shelton (7-0), No. 4 West Haven (7-0), and No. 5 Newtown (7-0).

    This division, more than anyone, is so fun because most of the top teams are going to have to fight their way past another contender or a real toughie from another class.

    Darien ends the season at No. 12 Staples (5-2, Nov. 11) and New Canaan (7-0, Thanksgrabbing). Staples just hasn’t panned out like we thought it would. New Canaan is THE place to be on Thanksgrabbing. Again.

    Southington plays host to No. 6 Cheshire (5-2) on Thanksgrabbing. The Rams gave the Blue Knights hell last Thanksgrabbing. We think the Southington was more dangerous last season. And Cheshire sure is better than it was last season.

    Shelton plays at free-falling Fairfield Prep (4-3) on Friday. It plays host to West Haven on Nov. 11 in the most highly anticipated game east of New Canaan.

    West Haven has back-to-back road games at Hand (1-6, Friday) and Shelton. It closes at home against Prep.

    Oh, how we hope we’re all at Finn Stadium next Friday.

    Newtown closes at Notre Dame-Fairfield (3-4, Friday), vs. Brookfield (2-5, Nov. 11), and plays host to Masuk (5-2) on Thanksgrabbing. We really thought that Masuk would be unbeaten headed into that game. New Fairfield and Bunnell both said “nuh-uh.”

    PROLLY: No. 10 Hall (5-2).

    Hall's next two games are at Manchester (4-3, Friday) and Platt (5-2). Not easy, but winnable.

    UNCERTAIN: No. 7 Norwich Free Academy (5-2), No. 9 Greenwich (5-2), and No. 8 Ridgefield (5-2).

    NFA plays its last two games at Stamford (3-4, Nov. 12) and at New London (6-0, Thanksgrabbing).

    Greenwich plays at Ridgefield next Friday in the equivalent of a Class LL play-in game.

    Greenwich has a better chance at qualifying should it win out than the Tigers because its opponents will give it more bonuses (a team gets 10 points for every win by a team it beat). It plays at Norwalk (3-4) on Friday and plays host to Staples (5-2) on Thanksgrabbing.

    The Tigers play host to Westhill (3-4) this Friday. It plays at Danbury (1-6) on Thanksgrabbing Eve and won’t get many points for winning that game.

    PROLLY NOT: No. 11 New Milford (5-2), Staples (5-2), No. 13 Trumbull (5-2), No. 14 Xavier (4-3), and No. 15 Wilbur Cross (4-2).

    It looks as if the only way a three-loss team will qualify is if a bunch of the one-and-two loss teams end up with three losses.

    New Milford, Staples, Trumbull and Xavier are ranked 11-14, respectively, and have such difficult endings.

    New Milford plays host to Bunnell (5-2, Nov. 11) and at New Fairfield (5-2). Both opponents have better wins than the Green Wave.

    Staples, hoo-boy, has the state’s most sadistic end to its season — vs. St. Joseph (6-1, Friday), vs. Darien, and at Greenwich on Thanksgrabbing.

    Trumbull plays host to New Canaan this Friday. Not fun. It finishes at home on Thanksgrabbing against St. Joseph.

    Xavier closes at North Haven (3-4) this Friday, at Notre Dame-West Haven variant (4-3, Nov. 11), and at Wilbur Cross (4-3).

    THE EIGHT: No. 1 Shelton (10-0) vs. No. 8 NFA (8-2); No. 2 Newtown (10-0) vs. No. 7 Hall (8-2); No. 3 Darien (9-1) vs. No. 6 Greenwich (8-2) (THE REMATCHENING); No. 4 Southington (9-1) vs. No. 5 West Haven (5-1) (YES PLEASE).

    CLASS L

    LOCKS: No. 1 New Canaan (7-0), No. 2 New London (6-0), and No. 3 Windsor (7-0).

    This trio all has games they could possibly lose but are in good shape for two reasons. The first is that only two of the remaining teams have at least one loss. The other is that everyone behind them have difficult games upcoming.

    Three-time defending L champ New Canaan plays winless Fairfield Ludlowe (Nov. 11) in addition to games with Trumbull and Darien.

    New London heads to Wilbur Cross this Friday. Its last three games are at Ledyard (3-4), at Waterford (4-2), and vs. NFA.

    The Warriors finish with South Windsor (4-3, Friday), Northwest Catholic (4-3, Nov. 11), and at No. 4 Middletown (6-1, Thanksgrabbing). The first two teams haven’t beaten anyone near Windsor’s caliber. Our faith in Middletown waned after it was upset last Friday by three-win Newington (27-24).

    PROLLY: Middletown (6-1), No. 6 Harding (5-2) and No. 7 Masuk.

    Middletown should roll through E.O. Smith (3-4, Friday) and winless Bristol Eastern the next two weeks. That will get it enough points to qualify even if it loses to Windsor.

    Harding plays at Bullard-Havens (6-1) on Saturday. It needs a win and all those 160 points because its last two games are against winless Wolcott Tech/Housatonic Regional/Wamogo (Nov. 11) and Bridgeport Central (Thanksgrabbing).

    Masuk will beat Weston (3-4, Friday) and Barlow (3-4, Nov. 11). It’ll have enough points to qualify even if it lost to Newtown.

    UNCERTAIN: Where to start? No. 5 Naugatuck (6-1), No. 8 Platt (5-2), No. 9 Maloney (5-2), No. 11 Notre Dame-West Haven (4-3), No. 12 Sacred Heart/Kaynor Tech (4-3).

    Naugatuck hasn’t beaten a winning team yet. Its next three games — at Wolcott (5-2, Friday), Waterbury Career (4-3, Nov. 11) and at nemesis Ansonia (7-0) on Thanksgrabbing.

    Platt gets to beat up on winless Bristol Eastern on Friday. It follows with a home game at Hall and closes with Maloney. It needs to win at least one of those.

    Maloney should beat Wethersfield (3-4, Friday) and East Catholic (4-3, Nov. 11). We think its 7-2 headed into the Platt game in what will be a Class L play-in.

    ND has the roughest road with games at Cheshire (5-2, Friday) and against Xavier (4-3, Nov. 11). Pencil it in should it get past that duo as it finishes with Hamden (2-5) in the Green Bowl on Thanksgrabbing.

    Sacred/Kaynor has the easiest schedule of the three — at Kennedy (3-4, Friday), at Crosby (2-5, Nov. 10), and winless Wilby (Nov. 23). It will finish 7-3, but it's going to pick up so few points as it will have beaten so many losing teams.

    PROLLY NOT: No. 10 Bristol Central (4-3), No. 13 Wilton (4-3), No. 14 Cheney Tech (4-3), and No. 15 Bassick (3-3).

    Central plays at Newington, fresh off winning the stunner of the season against Middletown. We don’t like its odds at East Hartford (4-3) on Nov. 11.

    Wilton closes with Trinity Catholic (4-3). Trinity beat LL contender Ridgefield and lost to New Canaan, Greenwich, and Trumbull. You get where we’re going here?

    Cheney Tech plays at Abbott Tech/Immaculate (4-3) on Nov. 18. The latter should win.

    Bassick plays at unbeaten Capital Prep this Saturday. ‘Nuff said.

    THE EIGHT: No. 1 New Canaan (10-0) vs. No. 8 Platt (7-3); No. 2 Windsor (10-0) vs. No. 7 Masuk (7-3); No. 3 New London (9-1) vs. No. 6 Notre Dame-W.H. (7-3); No. 4 Middletown (8-2) vs. No. 5 Harding (8-2).

    CLASS M

    LOCKS: No. 1 Valley Regional/Old Lyme (6-1), No. 3 Hillhouse (6-1), and No. 4 Killingly (6-1).

    Killingly and Valley/Lyme’s final three games are against losing teams.

    Hillhouse should beat Sheehan (4-3, Friday) and Lyman Hall (1-6, Nov. 11) the next two weeks to qualify. A win over Wilbur Cross (4-2) on Thanksgrabbing will net them extra points for beating a Class LL team and ensure a high seed.

    PROLLY: No. 2 St. Joseph (6-1), No. 7 Bunnell (5-2), and No. 8 New Fairfield (5-2).

    St. Joseph has the toughest road as it has games at Staples this Friday, vs. Westhill (3-4, Nov. 12), and at Trumbull. It needs to win two of those three games, neither which are gimmees (don’t be fooled by Westhill’s record — it was two minutes away from beating Greenwich to open the season).

    We almost listed Bunnell and New Fairfield as locks but hesitated because both must play New Milford (5-2). We'll respect any team that's 5-2, however the Green Wave haven't beaten (or threatened) anyone nearly as good as the Bulldogs and the Rebels have.

    Bunnell and New Fairfield should win their other two games. Bunnell plays at Barlow (3-4) on Friday and against town-rival Stratford (2-5) on Thanksgrabbing. The Rebels play at Pompearug (2-5, Friday) and Weston (3-4, Nov. 11).

    Should note that historically this division has been kinder to three-loss teams than the others (eighth-seeded Hillhouse, at 7-3, won the 2010 M title). This doesn't look like a year in which a three-loss team will get a break here, though.

    UNCERTAIN: No. 5 Berlin (6-1), and No. 9 Wolcott (5-2).

    Berlin’s playoff hopes will be determined by its final two games — Rocky Hill (6-1, Nov. 11), and New Britain (4-3, Nov. 18). We don’t like its odds against Rocky Hill (the latter took Bloomfield to overtime, Bloomfield beat the Redcoats on opening night, 36-14). The New Britain game is around toss-up territory.

    The Eagles have no margin for error and must beat Naugatuck this Friday. Wolcott thumped Class S hopeful Seymour (33-30). Naugy, as mentioned earlier, hasn’t beaten a winning team. Wolcott could breathe a little easier if it beat the Greyhounds because it finishes with Torrington (3-4, Nov. 12) and Holy Cross (3-4, Thanksgrabbing).

    PROLLY NOT: No. 6 Gilbert/Northwestern (6-1), No. 10 Waterford (4-2) and No. 11 Abbott Tech/Immaculate (4-2).

    G/N is has benefitted from playing in the weak Pequot League Uncas West Division (its opponents are a combined 14-32). It should beat Haddam-Killingworth (3-4) on Friday. Really don’t like its chances at Class S contender Old Saybrook/Westbrook (6-1) on Nov. 12. The latter hasn’t beaten a winning team either, however it gave Valley/Lyme hell in a 26-15 loss back on Sept. 17 (the game was closer than the score looks). If the Yellowjackets lose to Old/West, then it would have to beat Waterbury Career (4-3) at home on Thanksgiving.

    No. 10 Waterford’s chances are real bad after losses to three-win Ledyard (12-6) and then winless Bacon Academy (18-7). It must run the table against Stonington (4-3, Friday), Plainfield (4-3), New London and East Lyme. Not good.

    ATI is already on the edge and must win at Bullard Havens (6-1) next Saturday. It’s other games are against Platt Tech (3-4, Friday), Cheney Tech (4-3, Nov. 18) and winless Wolcott Tech/Housatonic/Wamogo on Thanksgrabbing. All three are quite winnable.

    THE EIGHT: No. 1 Valley Regional/Old Lyme (9-1) vs. No. 8 Berlin (8-2); No. 2 Hillhouse (9-1) vs. No. 7 New Fairfield (8-2); No. 3. Killingly (8-2) vs. No 6 Wolcott (8-2); No. 4 Bunnell (8-2) vs. No. 5 St. Joseph (8-2) (YES PLEASE).

    CLASS S

    LOCKS: No. 1 Ansonia (7-0), No. 2 Capital Prep/Achievement First (6-0), No. 3 Bloomfield (7-0), and No. 4 Cromwell/Portland (6-0).

    Ansonia has already thrashed playoff hopefuls Wolcott (62-21), No. 5 Oxford (34-7), and No. 9 Seymour (41-20). We don’t see it losing, then, to Derby (1-6, Friday), Holy Cross (3-4) or Naugatuck.

    Cap/Achievement beat the second-best team in the Constitution State Conference last week (Harding, 21-14). So it’s unlikely it will lose to Bassick (3-3, Nov. 5), Vinal/East Hampton/Goodwin (1-6) or Prince Tech (4-2, Nov. 19).

    Bloomfield plays at Northwest Catholic on Friday. Northwest was ripped up by No. 8 Rocky Hill (42-8). The Warhawks beat Rocky Hill in OT (50-42). You dig? Its remaining opponents have three losses between them (RHAM and Enfield).

    C/P has the trickiest finish as two of its final four games are against 6-1 teams vying for S berths. It plays host to No. 6 Ellington on Thursday. C/P routed Valley/Old Lyme on Sept. 30 (48-26). The Purple Knights lost their season-opener at Valley/Old (14-7). Give the Panthers a win Thursday. They end the regular season against another Class S contender, No. 8 Rocky Hill, in one of the division’s biggest games. C/P would be safe with one loss.

    PROLLY: Oxford (6-1), No. 8 Rocky Hill (6-1), and No. 11 Old Saybrook/Westbrook (5-1).

    Oxford and Old/West would be listed as locks if they didn’t already have a loss and a tough game left. Oxford plays at fellow S hopeful Seymour (5-2) next Thursday in what would be almost a play-in game. It closes with St. Paul (5-2), but has beaten better teams than the latter. Oxford might be safe at 8-2, but it’s not advisable.

    Old/West plays at one-win Nonnewaug this Saturday. It finishes with Class M hopeful Gilbert/Northwestern, Class S hopeful Stafford/East Windsor/Somers (6-1) and at Morgan (4-3, Thanksgrabbing Eve). Those three games prevent us from going all-in on the Rams, even though we like their odds.

    Rocky Hill plays host to RHAM (2-5) this Friday. Win. And then it gets tricky as it plays at Berlin (Nov. 11) and at Cromwell/Portland on Thanksgrabbing Eve. That’s a fun ending.

    DICEY: No. 6 Ellington (6-1), No. 7 Stafford/East Windsor/Somers (6-1), Seymour (5-2), No. 10 Bullard Havens (6-1) and No. 12 Trinity Catholic (5-3).

    Ellington must beat Cromwell/Portland. Period. Its other games are at North Branford (Nov. 11) and against Coventry/Windham Tech/Bolton (3-4, Thanksgrabbing).

    S/EW/S plays host to SMSA/University/Classical (3-4) this Friday and heads to Old/West on Nov. 19. It’s home free IF it wins both because its season finale is vs. winless Windsor Locks/Suffield/East Granby on Thanksgrabbing Eve.

    Seymour will beat No. 13 St. Paul (5-2) this Friday, so its season hinges on next Thursday’s game against Oxford. It finishes with winless Woodland on Thanksgrabbing Eve.

    Bullard Havens' odds aren't promising as it plays Harding this Saturday. It also plays Abbott/Immaculate (4-3, Nov. 12) and Bassick on Thanksgrabbing Eve.

    Trinity is the most intriguring team of this group. Yep, it’s got three losses, but consider they were against New Canaan (20-6), Greenwich (41-20), and Trumbull (24-14). It did itself a huge favor beating Ridgefield (38-33) as the latter is a LL school that should finish with no worse than seven wins. A team also gets bonus points for beating any team from a higher class, so Trinity earned 30 bonuses against the Tigers for beating a team three divisions higher than it. Its other three wins were all against LL teams. That’s 90 bonuses. Finally, the Crusaders end the season against large schools — vs. LL Stamford (3-4), vs. winless Bridgeport Central (also LL), and finishes on Thanksgrabbing at Class L Wilton (4-3). So then, if Trinity can win out, collect enough bonuses, AND a few things break right, it has a chance to sneak in. It's really not as crazy as it sounds. Trust us.

    PROLLY NOT: St. Paul (5-2), and No. 14 Windham (4-2).

    St. Paul has to deal with both Seymour and Oxford.

    Windham should win out against Ledyard (3-4, Friday), winless East Lyme (Nov. 11), Woodstock Academy (Nov. 23), and at Montville (2-5, Thanksgrabbing Eve). The problem is that it’s not going to collect many points beating so many losing teams.

    THE EIGHT: No. 1 Ansonia (10-0) vs. No. 8 Trinity Catholic (7-3); No. 2 Capital Prep/Achievement (9-0) vs. No. 7 Oxford (9-1); No. 3 Bloomfield (10-0) vs. No. 6 Cromwell/Portland (9-1); No. 4 Rocky Hill (10-0) vs. No. 5 Old Saybrook/Westbrook (9-1).

    • • • •

    The Meriden Record-Journal ran a story worth checking out about Sheehan’s Zach Davis after his record-shredding performance in last Friday’s 66-20 trucking of Law.

    Davis, in case you missed it, set state-records for most rushing yardage in a game (541) and touchdowns (10). He carried the ball on 41 of his team’s 42 offensive plays.

    That's one well-conditioned athlete.

    Davis has run for 2,497 yards and 38 touchdowns for the Titans (4-3) and has a chance to be the fifth player in state history to rush for 3,000 yards.

    • • • •

    BEHOLD, The Day of New London Top 10 state coaches' poll: 1. New Canaan (11 first-place votes); 2. Darien (one first-place vote); 3. Shelton; 4. West Haven; 5. Southington (one first-place vote); 6. Windsor; 7. Newtown; 8. Ansonia; 9. Bloomfield, and, making its season debut, 10. New London. 

    • • • •

    The New Haven Register/GameTimeCT.com Monolith Top 10 media poll: 1. Darien (22 first-place votes); 2. New Canaan (three first-place votes); 3. Shelton (one first-place vote); 4. West Haven; 5. Southington; 6. Windsor; 7. Newtown (hey — this order looks familiar); 8. Bloomfield; 9. Ansonia; and, 10. New London.

    • • • •

    Ned Freeman’s cold, calculating computer rankings for CalPreps and MaxPreps:

    1. West Haven; 2. Darien; 3. New Canaan; 4. Shelton; 5. Newtown; 6. Xavier; 7. Cheshire; 8. Notre Dame-W.H.; 9. Ridgefield; and, 10. Greenwich.

    That would be five SCC Tier I teams and four from the FCIAC. Even a computer program knows where the toughest football is being played.

    Ansonia is 11th, followed by Southington, New London and Bloomfield. Windsor is 16th.

    on its opponents combined records (35-12, .745). Six of its opponents have winning records — Wilbur Cross, Shelton, Cheshire, Hillhouse, West Haven and Branford.

    The Spartans schedule can’t touch Xavier’s, which the computer ranks the state’s hardest. It beat Taxachusetts powerhouse St. John’s of Shrewsbury (31-15) and held Norwich Free Academy to 27 yards in a 36-0 rout in Week 1. Its losses were to No. 3 Shelton (38-35, led 14-0 before the first quarter ended), No. 4 West Haven (27-18), and Cheshire (26-24 on a game-ending field goal).

    • • • •

    Dig the ballot Polecat HQ filed for the New Haven Register/GameTimeCT media poll:

    1. Darien

    2. New Canaan

    3. West Haven

    4. Shelton

    5. Southington: It and the next two teams are ranked because of their records and pedigrees because none of have played schedules comparable to the first four teams).

    6. Windsor

    7. Newtown

    8. Notre Dame-W.H.: Only Xavier has played a tougher schedule.

    9. Greenwich: Stunned it hasn't gotten more support from coach or media voters given its losses were to the state's top two teams (Darien, 42-35, and New Canaan, 40-16).

    10. Cheshire: May not be here much longer with games left against ND-W.H. and Southington. 

    11. Bloomfield

    12. Ansonia

    13. St. Joseph: The lone Class M representative here.

    14. Xavier: Go back and look at its schedule and who it beat and tell me why we shouldn't vote for it other than its record. Not all schedules are the same.

    15. Middletown: Probably should've dropped it for Ridgefield, but we like head coach Sal Morello and the nickname "Blue Dragons". Ridgefield has the swankier home field, though. It's gorgeous when the leaves start turning. And opinions about scenary are why you read this blog.

    16. Zach Davis

    • • • •

    Thanks for reading. More soon.

    Vaya con dios....

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