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    Friday, April 26, 2024

    Value perceptions, appraisals grow apart for third straight month

    Although home values continued to grow in February, the average homeowner continued to believe their property was worth more than the value determined by an appraiser.

    In the latest update of its Home Price Perception Index, the retail mortgage lender Quicken Loans determined that the average appraisal came in 1.69 percent lower than a homeowner's expectations in February. This marked the third consecutive month where the gap between appraisals and expectations has widened, growing from 1.33 percent in December and 1.47 percent in January.

    Homeowners have typically overestimated the value of their home in the past decade. Quicken Loans found that the average appraisal was more than 8 percent less than expected in late 2008. The gap steadily narrowed starting in mid-2011, and the average appraisal was greater than expected in late 2013 and much of 2014. Homeowner estimates were moving closer to appraised values for six consecutive months before the difference began to widen at the end of the year.

    Homeowners in the Northeast were most likely to overestimate the value of their home, with the typical appraisal coming in 1.85 percent below expectations. The average appraisal was 1.8 percent lower than expected in the Midwest, 1.68 percent lower in the South, and 1.46 percent lower in the West.

    Quicken Loans also determines the average gap between homeowner expectations and appraisals in 27 major metropolitan areas. The typical appraisal was higher than expected in 15 cities and lower than expected in 12 cities. Appraisals were within 1 percent of expectations in 13 cities.

    Homeowners in Denver were most likely to be pleasantly surprised by their appraisal, with the average value coming in 2.7 percent higher than expected. The average appraisal was 2.05 percent higher in Dallas; 1.81 percent higher in Portland, Ore.; and 1.31 percent higher in Seattle. On the other end of the spectrum, appraisals were 3.09 percent lower than the average estimate in Philadelphia, 3.01 percent lower in Baltimore, and 2.17 percent lower in Cleveland.

    In addition to tracking changes in value perceptions, Quicken Loans updates its National Home Value Index to determine changes to appraised home values. February's Home Value Index stood at 99.83, up 0.55 percent from January and 2.95 percent from February 2016. A figure of 100 indicates average values equal to January 2005.

    "Low levels of home inventory persists as the main driver of home value growth," said Bill Banfield, vice president of Quicken Loans Capital Markets. "There are still plenty of interested buyers vying for a slim amount of homes for sale – pushing prices higher. Home values are likely to move higher in the Midwest as spring buying season approaches, unless the number of homes available increases."

    Home values in the Midwest have remained depressed, with the region's Home Value Index standing at 81.97. This figure was up 0.13 percent from the previous month and 1.35 percent from the previous year.

    The index in the Northeast rose 0.23 percent from January and 0.47 percent from the previous year to 94.59. In the South, values were up 0.35 percent from the previous month and 4.12 percent from the previous year to bring the region's Home Value Index to 102.24. The figure in the West was 119.94, an increase of 1.31 percent from January and 4.45 percent from February 2016.

    The Home Price Perception Index is based on estimated values provided by homeowners on refinance mortgage applications and the appraised value determined later in the process. The Home Value Index is based on appraisal data from both purchase and refinance mortgages.

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