It's late, let's keep it short.Connecticut media types all got

Connecticut media types all got the e-mail tonight from Ken Dautrich's favorite Beltway pollster, Neil Newhouse, explaining why Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is beatable in the 2010 Senate race. Long story short: he'll enjoy a "honeymoon," be forced to take firmer and more detailed positions than he would today, and the bloom will part ways with the rose.Seems to me all of those things could happen -

Seems to me all of those things could happen - poll numbers up, positions taken, poll numbers dropping, reality of politics setting in for electorate - and Blumenthal could still win by five points. But Newhouse isn't directly addressing something that Democrats who were present at Blumenthal's campaign announcement thought pretty important: the degree to which a quick acclamation of the new candidate by Democrats will quell uncertainty, help the party's stalwarts coalesce around a single campaign, and focus energies in a party that can sometimes turn fractiousness and infighting into an art form."The two Republican opponents, they didn't have a good day today," said state Sen. Paul Doyle, D-Wethersfield, who was standing with Sen. Andrew Maynard, D-Stonington, toward the back of the room at state central after Blumenthal's announcement.

"The two Republican opponents, they didn't have a good day today," said state Sen. Paul Doyle, D-Wethersfield, who was standing with Sen. Andrew Maynard, D-Stonington, toward the back of the room at state central after Blumenthal's announcement."Any person who's thinking about it is done," Doyle said. "You're not going to have a

"Any person who's thinking about it is done," Doyle said. "You're not going to have a Chris Murphy or something like that jumping into it now." This appears to have been part of the design for Democrats: the obvious choice drops out in favor of the next most obvious choice, with no time to invite any (additional) complexity or confusion into the process. (Merrick Alpert, call your office.)

This appears to have been part of the design for Democrats: the obvious choice drops out in favor of the next most obvious choice, with no time to invite any (additional) complexity or confusion into the process. (Merrick Alpert, call your office.) Not sure how much certainty is worth here. Newhouse has polled enough to be reckoned with in his advice about the changed race. (Certainly more so than the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who were busy FOIAing Blumenthal's criminal conviction record yesterday. Brilliant, guys. When he drops out and Kevin Kane gets in, you'll have him all teed up and ready to smack.) And the hyper-enthusiasm of some Democrats about Blumenthal's chances against Simmons or Linda McMahon seems oddly divorced from the rest of the political discourse, which has been devoted for the last several months to anticipatory salivating at the beating Democrats could take in November.

Not sure how much certainty is worth here. Newhouse has polled enough to be reckoned with in his advice about the changed race. (Certainly more so than the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who were busy FOIAing Blumenthal's criminal conviction record yesterday. Brilliant, guys. When he drops out and Kevin Kane gets in, you'll have him all teed up and ready to smack.) And the hyper-enthusiasm of some Democrats about Blumenthal's chances against Simmons or Linda McMahon seems oddly divorced from the rest of the political discourse, which has been devoted for the last several months to anticipatory salivating at the beating Democrats could take in November.But by arrangement, serendipity, or some combination thereof, the gentle pas de deux of Dodd's exit and Blumenthal's entry helped the party avoid a period of deeper uncertainty about who its candidate would be, or even the sort of high-dollar, hard-hitting primary that Simmons and McMahon have waged while each was so sure that at least the victor would have Chris Dodd to stomp on at the end of it. For a party in need of some good news in this area, that is something.

But by arrangement, serendipity, or some combination thereof, the gentle pas de deux of Dodd's exit and Blumenthal's entry helped the party avoid a period of deeper uncertainty about who its candidate would be, or even the sort of high-dollar, hard-hitting primary that Simmons and McMahon have waged while each was so sure that at least the victor would have Chris Dodd to stomp on at the end of it. For a party in need of some good news in this area, that is something.

@David Irons: Oh, David. Do you ever actually read these posts before crafting your insightful commentary? Where does it say that I think Blumenthal is owed a Senate seat? Not even big bad "Dollar Bill" thinks that's what this post says. Take a deep breath, clear your mind, read it again.