If Ned Lamont manages to lose his primary contest with Dan Malloy for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination he will have two things to point at — his decision to stop debating and going over-the-top with a negative advertising campaign.Quinnipiac University poll released today found that among Democrats likely to vote in next Tuesday’s primary, 45 percent back Lamont, 40 percent Malloy.  The contest is now a toss up. Malloy, using public campaign finance money, has spent only about one-third the amount that Lamont has.

Despite having spent $6.8 million so far this campaign, Lamont has seen his lead over Malloy shrink. The

Lamont declined an invitation to debate Malloy from the Garde in New London live on MyTV9 July 27. He subsequently announced he would do no more one-on-one TV debates. The criticism in the media that resulted from that choice caused Lamont more damage than any poor debate performance likely would have. Lamont eventually changed course and did debate on Channel 3 this past Tuesday afternoon, an event rebroadcast on public television in the evening.

That debate made it even more apparent that Lamont’s original decision was wrong. The debate was a staid affair, boring at times, with no clear victor. It also received scant news coverage, eclipsed by the tragic shooting at the beer distribution company in Manchester. Lamont has to be wondering why he subjected himself to weeks of editorial bludgeoning trying to avoid something so benign.

And while negative advertising often works, it can backfire if it goes too far. Voters have a sense of fair play. Lamont’s advertisements referring to an old corruption investigation of Malloy during his time as Stamford mayor, allegations that were thoroughly investigated and found to be unsubstantiated, goes well beyond fair play. Malloy’s favorability ratings remain unchanged. In other words, it ain’t working for Lamont.

This race is going to be close. But if Lamont survives, he might think about hiring some new advisers.