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    Monday, May 06, 2024

    Despite gains in August, state struggles to recover jobs lost in recession

    A positive August jobs report released Monday nevertheless left economists feeling glum about the state's economy as an analysis of New England data showed Connecticut lagging the New England region in employment recovery.

    What's more, the 300 new jobs reported statewide in August came as the state Department of Labor issued an adjusted July report showing the 1,700 new jobs initially reported for the month actually had been changed to a loss of 800 jobs compared with June numbers.

    Some rays of sunshine could be discerned in the report, such as a statewide decrease in the unemployment rate from 5.7 percent to 5.6 percent and the addition of 600 jobs in the Norwich-New London market. But economists focused on the downsides, including the loss in August of 1,500 private-sector jobs while government employment grew by 1,800.

    "This report is bitterly disappointing," said Pete Gioia, an economist with the Connecticut Business & Industry Association, in a statement.

    "Our job recovery rate has actually moved backward, digging us deeper into a hole," said economist Don Klepper-Smith of DataCore Partners in New Haven in a note to clients.

    Klepper-Smith noted that Connecticut is now dead last among the six New England states in job recoveries after the Great Recession, recovering only 81.1 percent of the jobs lost at the economy's worst point. He noted the most recent August numbers showed the state now lagging even hard-hit Rhode Island, which traditionally had brought up the rear in job recovery.

    "Connecticut's job market is one that, at best, can be described as 'treading water,' but realistically is one that is now losing ground," Klepper-Smith said.

    CBIA, which has taken a more aggressive stance in recent months as it endorsed candidates for the first time in the upcoming November elections, said the report "highlights the immediate, urgent need to address our economic challenges."

    While both Maine, at a 91 percent job-recovery rate, and Rhode Island, at 88 percent, are struggling along with Connecticut to regain employment lost during the recession, they still are doing significantly better than the state, according to the latest July numbers. And this compares with Massachusetts with a 270 percent improvement, along with Vermont at 162 percent and New Hampshire at 147 percent.

    “This points to an underlying funk in the job market here in Connecticut," Gioia said. “Connecticut can reach a much greater potential by reforming our fiscal policies to encourage more job creating investment."

    Klepper-Smith said the latest report muddies the waters regarding when and if the state will ever see a full job recovery. At the current rate, he said, full recovery is not likely until the end of next year.

    "There is a possibility," he added, "that the Connecticut economy will not reach its former employment peak. ... If so, what are the implications for the Connecticut economy in the long run?"

    l.howard@theday.com

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