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    Monday, May 06, 2024

    Reacting prudently to 'shocked ... not surprised'

    ‘I was shocked by it, not surprised,” said U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry in response to a question from NBC Nightly News anchorman Lester Holt about Friday’s terrorist attacks in Paris that killed 129.

    It is shocking, certainly, to see such barbarism carried out. It is shocking to realize that even a country with the advanced intelligence capability of France is not immune from the suicidal actions of young men radicalized by their immersion in a twisted religious ideology that glorifies the slaughter of unarmed civilians. It is shocking to recognize that the killing fields of Syria are reaching farther abroad.

    However, Secretary Kerry is right; it was not surprising. Intelligence operatives had long recognized that the Islamic State was using social media to recruit adherents abroad to its violent, intolerant brand of Sunni Islamism. The Islamic State has been clear about its intent to terrorize and kill all who would oppose or even disagree with its deranged apocalyptic and despotic dogma.

    It has terrorized the populations across the swaths of Syria and Iraq it controls in pursuit of its caliphate under Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. On Oct. 31, a bomb believed planted by Islamic State adherents brought down a Russian passenger plane over Egypt, killing 224 people. As noted by Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, Sunni terrorists sympathetic to the Islamic State struck Thursday in Beirut with a double suicide bombing that killed 43 in a Shiite neighborhood, and bombings in Shiite areas of Baghdad, also on Friday, killed 26.

    While the gut reaction may be to go after them, to launch a massive military ground operation across Iraq and Syria, it would be a terrible mistake. Rather than isolating the Islamic State, such an approach would feed its propaganda that this is a war pitting the West against Muslims, generating more converts to its cause. This is a not a World War II-like battlefield with distinct borders and clear demarcations between friend and foe. It is a convoluted mess of tribal, religious and political factions, crossing national boundaries and defying logical delineation.

    Such an undertaking would be immensely costly in blood and treasure. Defining victory and extracting our forces would be difficult. And it would not guarantee attacks such as seen in Paris would end.

    President Obama’s strategy to “degrade and ultimately defeat” the Islamic State remains a sound approach among bad options. It involves using U.S.-led airstrikes to attack Islamic State strongholds, degrading its ability to fight, while supporting with arms and intelligence local forces aligned against the enemy. At the same time, diplomatic and financial efforts take aim at choking off its financial support.

    The administration and Pentagon, however, need to carry out the strategy more effectively and aggressively. France has set the tone for what needs to be a relentless air campaign. The West should seek greater coordination with Russia in attacking the Islamic State within Syria, even if it means tolerating the continued rule of President Bashar Assad over a portion of segmented Syria in the short term. The quid pro quo demanded of Russian President Putin could be Russia’s respect of no-fly zones near the Turkish and Jordanian borders, protecting rebel forces that oppose both Assad and the Islamic State’s fanaticism. So far, President Obama has rejected the no-fly zone option. He should reconsider.

    In addition to providing better protection to friendly forces, a U.S.-led coalition should accelerate the providing of arms to those Sunni Arabs and Kurds who have shown the ability to take on Islamic State forces and gain territory.

    Meanwhile, Congress needs to get off the sidelines and take a stand by authorizing the president to take actions against the Islamic State in pursuit of national security, while setting reasonable perimeters on that authority. The inaction of the Republican majorities in the House and Senate is shameful. In failing to take a stand for fear of the political fallout, Congress has shirked its duty.

    Degrading the Islamic State, pushing it out of the territories that provide it shelter to recruit, train and plan attacks abroad, will take time measured in years. In the meanwhile, domestic protection will depend in large measure on the ability of security officials to gather and communicate information, providing warnings of potential attacks and the ability to disrupt them.

    There are almost certainly more shocking events to come and, unfortunately, that should be no surprise.

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