New London will qualify for the CIAC Class M playoffs with a Thanksgiving Day win over Norwich Free Academy.

NFA will probably earn a Class LL berth with a win, but it's not automatic.

The Whalers have a good chance to qualify even if they lose.

Such is the craziness as we reach the end of the high school football regular season.

So let's get the easy stuff over with first - Ledyard (Class M) and Valley Regional/Old Lyme (Class S) have unofficially qualified, pending CIAC certification the day after the season ends.

Ledyard will play host to a semifinal on Saturday afternoon, Dec. 6. Ditto for Valley/OL if it beats Haddam-Killingworth (4-6) tonight.

But back to the scenario surrounding Thanksgiving Day rivals New London and NFA.

A win earns the Whalers a spot in the Class M-Large division with Berlin and Brookfield.

A win by NFA will send both rivals scrambling for the internet to obsessively search for scores.

The Whalers are battling Bethel, Cheney Tech and Abbott Tech/Immaculate for the final two spots in Class M-Large.

New London will have a minimum average of 95 points with a loss. It maxes out at 102 with the following seven results:

• Killingly (1-9) over Quinebaug Valley (5-5).

• East Lyme (4-6) over Waterford (4-6).

• Griswold (5-4) over Plainfield (9-1).

• Hartford Capital/Achievement (9-1) over Prince Tech (8-2).

• Stonington (5-5) over Westerly (3-7).

• Winless Fitch over Ledyard.

• Woodstock (1-9) over Windham (8-1).

Results from the last two games are improbable, at best.

New London will have a 100 average if the other five goe its way.

Bethel's max is 99.1 with a loss and all three of its bonuses.

Cheney Tech completed its regular season on Friday. It could finish as high as 100.91 with all four of its bonuses.

AT/I can't catch the Whalers if it loses. It will max out at 99.09 with a win and its two bonuses.

Cheney and AT/I share two bonuses. One is St. Bernard/Norwich Tech over Montville. The other - Quinebaug over Killingly.

You'll remember that New London needs at Killingly win, so that's a huge swing game.

AT/I will have a 97.27 average if Killingly and Montville win. The Whalers will need just three bonuses to pass AT/I.

Cheney can get as high as 99.1 if Killingly and Montville win. The Whalers will need five bonuses to pass Cheney.

Bethel will also max out at 99.1 if it loses and gets its three bonuses - Masuk (7-3) over unbeaten Newtown, New Milford (3-7) over New Fairfield (6-4), and Seymour (7-3) over Woodland (3-7).

Assuming you haven't nodded off, you see that the Whalers still have hope if they lose.

Onto NFA (6-2) — it's one of 11 teams vying for the final five spots in Class LL.

The Wildcats will have 980 playoff points with a win for a 108.89 average. It will max out at 113.33 with the following four results:

• Montville over St. Bernard/Norwich Tech.

• Bacon Academy (5-5) over RHAM (3-7).

• Woodstock over Windham.

• Fitch over Ledyard.

The first game is greatly in the Wildcats' favor. the second is a toss-up and the other two are unlikely.

NFA will have a 111.11 average with two bonuses, 110 with just two bonuses.

The Wildcats cannot catch Hall under any circumstances.

McMahon (7-2) will outpoint NFA with a Thanksgiving win over Norwalk (4-6). Ditto Cheshire (8-2) if it wins at unbeaten Southington.

The Wildcats will pass Glastonbury with a win. Danbury and New Britain can't catch them, either.

NFA will also pass Bristol Central and Xavier with a win, and victories by Bacon and Montville.

Fairfield Prep (7-3) and Greenwich (7-3) can pass the Wildcats with Thanksgiving wins and all their bonuses. Prep plays host to West Haven (5-5). The Cardinals play host to Staples (6-4).

The maximum average for both Greenwich and the Jesuits is 112.73. Prep is dependent on five games to reach that number, and the Cardinals seven. Odds are that neither will max out as it requires great fortune to get that many variables to go a team's way.

(Feel free to re-read that again just to process it).

A win doesn't guarantee NFA a berth, but the odds are in its favor.

Here's a simple explanation of NFA's chances: if three of the following five teams - Hall, Bristol Central, Cheshire, Greenwich or Prep - lose, the Wildcats will qualify with a win. And believe it or not, NFA will have shot at home semifinal, too.

n.griffen@theday.com

Twitter: @MetalNED