East Lyme — The New England School Development Council presented revised projections to the Board of Education on Thursday that anticipate East Lyme's elementary school enrollment will increase over the next decade, rather than drop as previously anticipated.

The school board has been interested in the projected number of students in kindergarten through fourth grade, as it considers how to upgrade its elementary schools.

In 2014, NESDEC had presented projections to the school board that anticipated kindergarten through fourth-grade student enrollment would drop to numbers in the 700s over the next decade.

On Thursday, NESDEC's revised projections anticipate that there could be 960 kindergarten to fourth-grade students in 2026-7; this year, 837 are enrolled in the East Lyme school district.

Donald G. Kennedy, a demographic specialist with NESDEC, said the data was based on new information, including an increase in home sales in 2013-16, after a drop during the recession. He further pointed out that nearly 500 building permits were issued between 2014 and 2016.

He said for the 172 students in kindergarten during the 2016-17 year, 64 of them represent "net move-ins" to town since their birth year.

Kennedy said the town is seen as a place with a high quality of life, a good school system and recreational opportunities.  

He said that unless a significant change in the region's major employers occurs, it appears that the town is "in a relatively calm period where we could see several years in a row with young families moving in."

"Although I wouldn't call it robust or a huge turnaround, it hasn't declined," Kennedy said. "It's slight growth, and slight growth particularly focused on the youngest ages."

But he likened the projections to predicting hurricanes and cautioned that there is uncertainty.

Some board members also raised questions and scenarios in which the data could change.

But Board of Education Chairman Tim Hagen said that when the board analyzes the data, it should not move to close a school until there is definitive data for a sustained period of time that shows the facility is not needed.

He said the data indicate that there are enough students to occupy the town's three elementary schools.

Previously, the board had been pursuing a project to fully renovate the Lillie B. Haynes School, refurbish and later rebuild Flanders Elementary School and close Niantic Center School. The board ultimately decided against moving forward with that project.

The board now is looking into updating all three of its elementary schools, though no official decisions have been made.

At the meeting, architects presented the board with the cost estimate to complete minimum repairs at the three schools for a projected $11 million. The board is seeking more information on how much it would cost for the "next tier" of alterations.

The school board also has been discussing redistricting for its three elementary schools, and the next step will be to form a committee, Superintendent of Schools Jeffrey Newton said.

The board is expected to pick up the discussions at its next meeting.

k.drelich@theday.com