The Lonesome Polecat (BRACKETOLOGY variant): KA-BLAMMO
Howdy,
YOU know dang well that Thanksgrabbing Week is the craziest week of the football year. Rivalries, playoff berths, and the finality of the season does that to a game.
We’re in for one screwed up Thanksgrabbing if Thanksgrabbing Eve was a harbinger. Things went KABLAMMO, particularly in Class L.
The easy part first — East Hartford (Class LL) and Stafford/East Windsor/Somers (Class S) won and unofficially earned CIAC playoff berths. That leaves seven spots left over four divisions. More on that in a few.
Now the rest:
• Darien starters Jack Joyce (quarterback) and Brian Minicus (receiver-defensive back) turned themselves in to the New Canaan Police on Wednesday in connection with a Nov. 6 assault, according to the Stamford Advocate.
A third Darien resident also turned himself in. The police did not identify him because because he’s 17.
Dave Ruden of The Ruden Report tweeted Wednesday night that Darien athletic director Chris Manfredonia texted he could not comment on whether or not Joyce and Minicus would be suspended from today’s game against, appropriately enough, New Canaan.
Ruden was unable to reach Darien head coach Rob Trifone.
Anthony E. Parelli of the Darien News and New Canaan News also tweeted Wednesday night that an anonymous source said Minicus wouldn’t play. “No idea about on the others,” Parelli added.
The arrests, from a strictly football standpoint, could completely reshape both Class LL and Class L IF Joyce and Minicus don’t play.
The Blue Wave (9-0), the two-time LL champions and top-ranked team in The Day's coaches’ poll, would be hard-pressed to beat New Canaan without Joyce and Minicus. It could cost them today’s game and a chance at a three-peat. It could also make unbeaten Greenwich, a fellow FCIAC school, the LL frontrunner.
New Canaan (7-2) will be in jeopardy of missing states after 12 straight appearances if it loses to Darien. The Rams have won four straight Class L titles and, having not polled the coaches of other Class L contenders, it’s safe to say they don’t want New Canaan to qualify.
Okay, on to stuff that took place on THE FIELD:
No. 8 Middletown 24, No. 5 Windsor 7
It’s not surprising the Blue Dragons won because of both their ranking and 10-0 record.
It WAS stunning how Middletown so thoroughly shut down the Warriors (9-1), though. Its defense allowed just one first down in the first half and 79 yards for the game. Windsor’s only touchdown was on a 12-yard interception return by Dohnje Casanova on the game’s third play.
Middletown had only one sustained scoring drive because the Warriors’ defense was pretty ferocious against the run. The Warriors stopped two drives deep in their territory.
STONE Belzo completed 10 of 14 passes for 73 yards with two interceptions for Middletown and ran 10 times for 43 yards and two TDs. Teammate Xzavier Reyes had to scrap for every yard and finished with 27 carries for 98 yards.
WHAT.
Dan Mason scored on runs of 49 and 2 yards as the Nighthawks stunned the Panthers and beat them for the sixth straight season.
Nobody outside of Newtown saw this coming. N-O-B-O-D-Y. The Panthers (9-1) had mangled the South-West Conference the entire season, outscoring their opponents by an average of 40 points.
The Nighthawks were embarrassed by Bunnell in their last game, 40-0 (Nov. 10). They also lost twice out-of-conference to Xavier (30-14) and Shelton (35-28).
Windsor and Masuk began Wednesday seeded first and secondly, respectively, and Middletown fifth.
The Blue Dragons clinched the top seed in Class L with their win. Windsor fell to fourth, and the Panthers to fifth.
East Hartford 26, Manchester 25
David Ortiz scored on a 5-yard run with 5:30 left to lead to victory and, unofficially, a LL berth. Kevon Jones ran 20 times for 120 yards and a touchdown for East Hartford (9-1). Jevin Frett was crazy for the Manchester as he scored three straight times on an 85-yard kickoff return, a 9-yard catch, and an 87-yard punt return.
Stafford/East Windsor/Somers 27, Windsor Locks/Suffield/East Granby 6
Colton Engel ran 27 times for 177 yards and three touchdowns and threw a 15-yard touchdown as the Bulldogs unofficially clinched a spot in Class S. It’s the program’s second playoff trip and second in as many seasons. John Kopek had 13 tackles and a sack for S/EW/S (9-1) and Engel set the program’s single-season touchdown record (23).
Rocky Hill 35, Cromwell/Portland 7
Matt Osgood caught touchdowns passes of 29 and 24 yards from Dan Cavallaro for the Terriers (10-0) and threw a 4-yard touchdown pass to Diamonte Baker. Cavallaro also threw a 38-yard touchdown to Jack Hansen and Joe Ferreira scored on a 38-yard run. That's not how you do GOD'S OFFENSE, Terriers. RUN IT. Please.
The loss eliminated the Panthers (8-2) from Class S contention.
Ian Sadick threw six touchdowns passes and ran for another for 246 total yards as the Wildcats (8-2) stayed alive in Class S. Tyler Ganim caught three of Sadick’s TD passes (39, 13, and 35 yards).
Capital Prep/Achievement First 27, Prince Tech 18
Kyle Zajack scored on a 78-yard run and threw a 20-yard touchdown pass to Anthony Benefield as the Trailblazers put the kibosh on Prince’s Class S playoff dreams. John Edwards also scored on a 42-yard punt return for the Trailblazers (5-3) and Khyon Gillessie ran for a 3-yard touchdown.
Now then, these TWENTY FIVE teams have unofficially qualified for states.
CLASS LL: No. 1 Naugatuck (9-0), No. 2 Darien (9-0), No. 3 Shelton (8-1); No. 4 Greenwich (9-0); No. 5 South Windsor (9-1); No. 6 West Haven (8-1); and, No. 7 East Hartford (9-1).
CLASS L: No. 1 Middletown (10-0); No. 2 Hand (9-1); No. 3 Fitch (10-0); No. 4 Windsor (9-1); No. 5 Masuk (9-1); and, No. 6 Maloney (8-1).
CLASS M: No. 1 Killingly (9-0); No. 2 Coventry/Windham Tech/Bolton/Lyman Memorial (10-0); No. 3 Sheehan (8-1); No. 4 Berlin (8-2); No. 5 Watertown (7-2); and, No. 6 SMSA/University/Classical (7-3).
CLASS S: No. 1 St. Joseph (8-1), No. 2 Ansonia (9-0); No. 3 Rocky Hill (9-0); No. 4 Bullard-Havens (9-1); No. 5 Stafford/East Windsor/Somers (9-1); and, No. 6 Valley Regional/Old Lyme (9-1).
DO THE MATH — there are two berths left in Class L, M and S, and ONE in LL.
Now, onto BRACKETOLOGY.
GROUND RULES
1. We’re going to be wrong about a bunch of these predictions and that's cool. Surprises are (usually) FUN!
Honestly, we hope we're wrong more than we're right today because the playoff races look too predictable. We want MOAR chaos.
2. Just because we didn’t pick your team to qualify doesn’t mean we hate you. Hell, WE DON’T EVEN KNOW YOU, MAN. Should you choose to believe us picking against you is the worst insult you’ve ever suffered, then, by all means, use it as motivation to win a state title. Should you win states, then you dang sure better give us an invitation and free meal at your year-end banquet for providing you with the motivation nescessary to make all your dreams come true.
3. YOU are encouraged to follow the ROBOABACUS, the magnificent creation of Matt Fischer, the CIAC’s MacGyver. It updates the playoff races in real time unlike, you know, fake time.
4. This is an exhibition, not a competition. Please, no wagering.
We hope you can recite the following by heart, kids — a bonus is the 10 points a team receives for every win by an opponent it defeated, and that no team officially qualifies for the playoffs until the CIAC football committee rubber-stamps them the day after the end of the regular season
Note that we've added both a win and lose category when listing the teams fighting for berths. The numbers in each column are the team's minimum and maximum number of potential points.
We encourage you to follow all of Thanksgrabbing's action at The Twit at #cthsfb. It's like a party in your smartphone.
The quarterfinals (Tuesday, Nov. 28) and semifinals (Sunday, Dec. 3) will be played at the higher seed. The finals will be played Saturday, Dec. 9 at sites to be determined. We assume said sites are West Haven High and Willow Brook Park in New Britain based on past seasons.
One last time this season, into the breach:
IN: No. 1 Naugatuck (9-0), No. 2 Darien (9-0), No. 3 Shelton (8-1); No. 4 Greenwich (9-0); No. 5 South Windsor (9-1); No. 6 West Haven (8-1); and, No. 7 East Hartford (9-1).
Naugy, Darien, Shelton and Greenwich will earn home quarterfinals with wins.
Naugy hosts Ansonia (9-0). DOH.
Jeez, Darien vs. New Canaan has taken quite the turn. They’ll square off at Boyle Stadium.
Shelton hosts Derby (3-6). The Gaels have won the previous 14 games by an average of 29 points over that time.
Greenwich plays at Staples (6-3). Still nothing to add here.
South Windsor gets to relax today. It can earn a home quarterfinal with the right breaks.
West Haven moseys over to Fairfield Prep this morning. The Westies, too, can get a home game with a win.
East Hartford awaits its destination.
WIN-AND-HOPE
SOUTHINGTON (7-2)
NEXT: at Cheshire (6-3).
WIN: 1,120.
LOSE: 960.
BONUSES: None.
The Blue Knights desperately need Prep to lose because the latter will earn the berth with a win and two bonuses.
FAIRFIELD PREP (7-2)
NEXT: vs. West Haven (8-1).
WIN: 1,150-1,110.
LOSE: 970-930.
BONUSES (40): AMITY (3-6) over North Haven (7-2); HARDING (2-7) over Bridgeport Central (2-7); NEW LONDON (3-6) over NFA (5-4); SHEEHAN (8-1) over Lyman Hall (5-4).
The Jesuits need a win and two bonuses to beat Southington. A win and one bonus beats Cheshire if it wins.
CHESHIRE (6-3)
NEXT: vs. Southington (7-2).
WIN: 1,110-1,050.
LOSE: 940-880.
BONUSES (60): HARDING (2-7) over Bridgeport Central (2-7); LAW (5-4) over Foran (4-5); NFA (5-4) over New London (3-6); NOTRE DAME-W.H. (2-7) over Hamden (1-8); SHELTON (8-1) over Derby (3-6); WILBUR CROSS (6-3) over Hillhouse (6-3).
BEAT SOUTHINGTON, hope Prep loses.
THE EIGHT (post-Darien arrests): No. 1 Greenwich (10-0) vs. No. 8 Southington (9-1); No. 2 Shelton (9-1) vs. No. 7 East Hartford (9-1); No. 3 West Haven (9-1) vs. No. 6 South Windsor (9-1); and, No. 4 Naugatuck (9-1) vs. No. 5 Darien (9-1).
Minutia — we expect Naugatuck, Darien and South Windsor to tie with 1,310 points. BRING OUT THE TIEBREAKERS.
• • • •
IN: No. 1 Middletown (10-0); No. 2 Hand (9-1); No. 3 Fitch (10-0); No. 4 Windsor (9-1); No. 5 Masuk (9-1); and, No. 6 Maloney (8-1).
Middletown clinched the top seed.
Hand will clinch the two if Hamden, Cheshire, Harding or Bunnell win, or if Fitch and/or Windsor don’t max out on points.
NOW comes the division’s brain drain — Fitch plays at Ledyard (2-7). It will have 1,320 points with a win. It has three bonuses (Branford over East Haven, Notre Dame of West Haven over Hamden, and Westerly over Stonington).
Windsor also has 1,320 points. It has four bonuses (Hartford Public over Bulkeley/HMTCA/Weaver, Farmington over Plainville, NFA over New London, and Bristol Central over Bristol Eastern).
Masuk has 1,300 points. It has four bonuses, too (Amity over North Haven, Brookfield over Bethel, Barlow over Weston, and New London over NFA).
It could get real close between Fitch and Windsor, with the latter having the edge in tiebreak points (the two points a team gets for a win by any of its opponents, regardless of whether they beat or lost to said opponent).
Maloney just wants somewhere to go. It will be sixth, unless Fitch loses. Then it moves up to fifth.
WIN-AND-IN
NORTH HAVEN (7-2)
NEXT: at Amity (3-6).
WIN: 1,200-1,150.
LOSE: 1,060-1,010.
BONUSES (50): CHESHIRE (6-3) over Southington (7-2); FAIRFIELD PREP (7-2) over West Haven (8-1); FORAN (4-5) over Law (5-4); HARDING (2-7) over Bridgeport Central (2-7); POMPERAUG (2-7) over Notre Dame-Ffld. (4-5).
A New Canaan or Bunnell loss will also do the trick.
NEW CANAAN (7-2)
NEXT: vs. Darien (9-0) at Boyle Stadium.
WIN: 1,090-1,140.
LOSE: 990-940.
BONUSES (50): FAIRFIELD LUDLOWE (1-8) over Fairfield Warde (4-5); NORWALK (5-4) over McMahon (1-8); TRINITY CATHOLIC (2-7) over Wilton (5-4); TRUMBULL (2-6) over St. Joseph (8-1); WESTHILL (6-3) over Stamford (3-6).
The Rams must win, or hope Bunnell loses and hold off East Lyme or Hillhouse on points if either wins. They have a big enough lead over East Lyme and Hillhouse to beat them on points, but Bunnell is a considerable favorite against Stratford.
WIN-AND-HOPE
BUNNELL (7-2)
NEXT: at Stratford (4-5).
WIN: 1,110-1,090.
LOSE: 970-950.
BONUSES (20): BETHEL (3-6) over Brookfield (3-6); EAST HAVEN (1-8) over Branford (2-7).
It needs North Haven or New Canaan to lose.
EAST LYME (6-3)
NEXT: vs. Waterford (0-9).
WIN: 960-900.
LOSE: 860-800.
BONUSES (50): BARLOW (6-3) over Weston (6-3); LEDYARD (2-7) over Fitch (9-0); NEW LONDON (3-6) over NFA (5-4); STONINGTON (3-6) over Westerly, R.I. (4-3); STRATFORD (4-5) over Bunnell (7-2).
It’s still in bad shape even if Bunnell and New Canaan lose. East Lyme’s maximum is the same as Bunnell’s if the latter loses. New Canaan will be just 10 points behind East Lyme if it loses.
HILLHOUSE (6-3)
NEXT: vs. Wilbur Cross (6-3).
WIN: 980-950.
LOSE: 810-780.
BONUSES (30): AMITY (3-6) over North Haven (7-2); FORAN (4-5) over Law (5-4); HAMDEN (1-8) over Notre Dame-W.H. (2-7).
It needs to win and have Bunnell and New Canaan lose. Hillhouse and Bunnell will each have a minimum of 950 points, and the Rams 940. Then they start counting bonuses.
THE EIGHT (post-Darien arrests): No. 1. Middletown (10-0) vs. No. 8 New Canaan (8-2); No. 2 Hand (9-1) vs. No. 7 North Haven (8-2); No. 3 Fitch (10-0) vs. No. 6 Maloney (9-1); No. 4 Windsor (9-1) vs. No. 5 Masuk (9-1).
• • • •
IN: No. 1 Killingly (9-0); No. 2 Coventry/Windham Tech/Bolton/Lyman Memorial (10-0); No. 3 Sheehan (8-1); No. 4 Berlin (8-2); No. 5 Watertown (7-2); and, No. 6 SMSA/University/Classical (7-3).
Killingly, C/WT/B/LM, Sheehan, and Berlin have all clinched home quarterfinals.
Killingly will be the one if it beats Woodstock and the MIGHTY PATRIOT BULLDOGS will be seeded second. They'd flip-flop if Killingly is upset, but it won't.
Watertown and SMSA/University/Classical just want to know where to drive.
WIN-AND-IN
BARLOW (6-3)
NEXT: at Weston (6-3).
WIN: 960-950.
LOSE: 800-790.
BONUSES (10): NOTRE DAME-FFLD. (4-5) over New Milford (3-6).
BEAT WESTON.
WESTON (6-3)
NEXT: vs. Barlow (6-3).
WIN: 950.
LOSE: 790.
BONUSES: None.
BEAT BARLOW.
WOLCOTT (5-4)
NEXT: vs. Holy Cross (5-4).
WIN: 890-860.
LOSE: 740-710.
BONUSES (30): OXFORD (3-6) over St. Paul (6-3); TORRINGTON (2-7) over Watertown (7-2); WOODLAND (5-4) over Seymour (7-2).
BEAT HOLY CROSS. Finished if it loses.
WIN-AND-HOPE
LAW (5-4)
NEXT: vs. Foran (4-5).
WIN: 830-800.
LOSE: 690-660.
BONUSES (30): BETHEL (3-6) over Brookfield (3-6); EAST HAVEN (1-8) over Branford (2-7); LYMAN HALL (5-4) over Sheehan (8-1).
Win, hope Wolcott loses, and edge Bacon Academy (if it wins) on points.
BACON ACADEMY (5-4)
NEXT: vs. RHAM (4-5).
WIN: 810-770.
LOSE: 660-620.
BONUSES (40): LEDYARD (2-7) over Fitch (9-0); NEW LONDON (3-6) over NFA (5-4); STONINGTON (3-6) over Westerly, R.I. (4-3); WATERFORD (0-9) over East Lyme (6-3).
The Bobcats must win, Wolcott must lose, and it will really help if Law loses, too. That still might not be enough to beat the Barlow-Weston loser because the loser will have a 790-770 edge in points over Bacon before bonuses.
LYMAN HALL (5-4)
NEXT: at Sheehan (8-1).
WIN: 800.
LOSE: 620.
BONUSES: None.
The Trojans are almost staked.
THE EIGHT: No. 1 Killingly (10-0) vs. No. 8 Wolcott (6-4); No. 2 C/WT/B/LM (10-0) vs. No. 7 SMSA/U/C (7-3) (THE REMATCHENING); No. 3 Sheehan (9-1) vs. No. 6 Barlow (7-3); No. 4 Berlin (8-2) vs. No. 5 Watertown (8-2).
• • • •
CLASS S
IN: No. 1 St. Joseph (8-1); No. 2 Rocky Hill (10-0); No. 3 Ansonia (9-1); No. 4 Bullard-Havens (9-1); No. 5 Stafford/East Windsor/Somers (9-1); and, No. 6Valley Regional/Old Lyme (9-1).
The top four have clinched home quarterfinals.
S/EW/S is locked into the five spot and Valley/OL the sixth.
ALMOST THERE
O’BRIEN TECH (8-2)
NEXT: Regular season over.
POINTS: 1,180-1,170.
BONUSES (10): QUINEBAUG VALLEY (4-5) over Thames River (4-5).
It will clinch with its bonus, or a Plainfield loss, or if Plainfield or Seymour don't get to 1,170 with their respective bonuses.
PRAY
SEYMOUR (8-2)
NEXT: Regular season over.
POINTS: 1,190-1,150.
BONUSES (40): DERBY (3-6) over Shelton (8-1); KENNEDY (3-6) over Crosby (5-4); TORRINGTON (2-7) over Watertown (7-2); WOLCOTT (5-4) over Holy Cross (5-4).
It needs a Plainfield loss or beat it on bonuses.
WIN AND PRAY
PLAINFIELD (7-2)
NEXT: at Griswold (6-3).
WIN: 1,170-1,130.
LOSE: 1,010-970.
BONUSES (40): BACON ACADEMY (5-4) over RHAM (4-5); STONINGTON (3-6) over Westerly, R.I. (4-3); WATERFORD (0-9) over East Lyme (6-3); WOODSTOCK ACADEMY (4-5) over Killingly (9-0).
The Panthers can win, tie O'Brien if they get all their bonuses, and win on tiebreak points. They won’t max out because they need both Waterford and Woodstock to win.
THE EIGHT: No 1. Ansonia (10-0) vs. No. 8 Seymour (8-2) (THE REMATCHENING); No. 2 St. Joseph (9-1) vs. No. 7 O’Brien Tech (9-1); No. 3 Rocky Hill (10-0) vs. No. 6 Valley Regional/Old Lyme (9-1); No. 4 Bullard-Havens (9-1) vs. No. 5 Stafford/East Windsor/Somers (9-1).
• • • •
You, the loyal Polecat reader, knows that we love Ned Freeman’s computer model over at CalPreps.
Freeman’s model has been a pretty good bellwether for the state rankings. It has, at times, been ahead of the curve when compared to voters in both polls. The model also picks games starting in October.
Freeman wrote at his site that blindly picking the team with the better record (or the home team when both teams have the same record) is 66.8 percent.
“Anything up around 75-80-percent is pretty good,” Freeman wrote, “but it's important to understand that it's easy to pick 70 percent in regular-season high school football due to the large number of mismatched games.”
Ned's model correctly has picked Connecticut’s games 82.8 percent of the time this season (322-67).
Just for fun, we present the computer’s picks for today
THANKSGRABBING
Abbott RVT/Immaculate 46, Wolcott RVT/Housatonic/Wamogo 6
Ansonia 34, Naugatuck 21
Branford 28, East Haven 17
Bacon Academy 21, RHAM 14
Bristol Central 28, Bristol Eastern 14
Brookfield 21, Bethel 17
Bunnell 35, Stratford 14
Crosby 40, Kennedy 27
Darien 34, New Canaan 10
Ellington 28, Rockville 13
East Lyme 44, Waterford 6
Fairfield Warde 44, Fairfield Ludlowe 13
Farmington 28, Plainville 21
Fitch 48, Ledyard 6
Foran 35, Law 27
Greenwich 31, Staples 21
Harding 31, Bridgeport Central 20
Hartford Public 35, Bulkeley/Trinity/Weaver 14
Killingly 62, Woodstock Academy 3
Lewis Mills 27, Nonnewaug 19
Maloney 31, Platt 20
North Haven 42, Amity 19
Norwalk 31, McMahon 20
Norwich Free Academy 31, New London 20
Notre Dame-Ffld. 28, Pomperaug 21
Notre Dame-W.H. 35, Hamden 28
Old Saybrook-Westbrook 50, Morgan 0
Plainfield 21, Griswold 17
Rocky Hill 28, Cromwell/Portland 19
St. Joseph 56, Trumbull 12
Sheehan 42, Lyman Hall 8
Shelton 52, Derby 7
Southington 27, Cheshire 21
Thames River 27, Quinebaug Valley 26
Watertown 42, Torrington 20
Weston 24, Barlow 22
West Haven 26, Fairfield Prep 14
Westerly 26, Stonington 8
Westhill 31, Stamford 27
Wilbur Cross 21, Hillhouse 17
Wilton 41, Trinity Catholic 7
Wolcott 42, Holy Cross 31
• • • •
Thanks for reading. We might have something later today. We might not. Depends on how lucid we still are. The alarm is set to go off shortly, and we're stil awake, so that's not good.
HAPPY THANKSGRABBING~!
Adios....
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