The shelves of Phil Pavone's AZ Pawn and Guns shop in Norwich are emptier than they've been in some time.

Picking up the phone at his shop last week, Pavone counted 20 boxes of ammunition. "Normally I would have 10 times that much," he said.

Pavone isn't alone. He's heard stories from friends about retailers selling out of ammunition within hours of receiving a shipment. "In the morning, they had pallets of ammunition and by 1 in the afternoon, the pallets were empty," he said.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a record number of new gun owners, leaving ammunition manufacturers struggling to keep up with the historic demand.

Jason Vanderbrink, president of ammunition for Vista Outdoor, which owns several ammunition brands including Federal, Speer, CCI and Remington, addressed the shortage in a video message last month, saying the company hired hundreds of new employees last year to help produce more supply.

But the statistics alone show it will take a long time before manufacturers can catch up.

Last year, there were an estimated 7 million new gun owners in the U.S. If you multiply that by two boxes of ammunition each, a "conservative estimate," that's "700 million new rounds of ammunition our three factories have to help produce," Vanderbrink said.

And that's while manufacturers have instituted increased safety measures and other precautions due to the pandemic, which has also impacted the supply chain and the ability to procure raw materials.

Pavone usually buys his ammunition directly from the manufacturers, but he hasn't in the past couple of months because most have been backordered or the price was so high, there wasn't room for any profit. Instead, he's buying it on auction sites or through people coming into his shop to sell their own supply.

Prices have skyrocketed as a result of the shortage. Six months ago, a box of 50 .40-caliber bullets for a handgun cost about $18 to $19, Pavone said. Now he's selling that box for $35.

"We're actually quite reasonable. Most places are selling for $1-plus a round," he said. He also sells ammunition on auction sites and said he's received more than $1 per round in some cases.

While sales are up, Pavone said he's not seeing a huge increase in profit because he's having to pay more for the ammunition himself.

Pavone first noted the shortage at the beginning of the pandemic but said it dwarfed in comparison to what he started observing at his shop in October, just before the presidential election, and the ensuing months.

"Before maybe they'd buy a box or two, now they're buying 10 boxes," he said.

Spikes in gun ownership around presidential election cycles are not uncommon and are often the result of fear a new administration will institute stricter firearm regulations.

But Pavone said many of the people who have come to his shop in recent months are also reacting to last year's social unrest.

"People are coming in and asking, 'How do I get a firearm? What do I need to buy a firearm?' They're afraid," he said. "It's a combination of all the factors that are going on right now that has sparked this panic and it is a panic."

Holly Sullivan, president of the Connecticut Citizens Defense League, agrees.

"People are more concerned about the ability to defend themselves and their families, so you're seeing existing gun owners buying more ammunition," she said.

New gun owners, on the other hand, tend to load up on ammo to practice with so they can become proficient in using their firearms, Sullivan said. So, given the large increase in new gun owners, it makes sense that more ammo would be purchased as a result.

No easy solution

A remedy isn't likely to come any time soon.

Vanderbrink addressed this issue in a separate video message two weeks ago, responding to common questions he's received about the shortage.

"I've seen lots of comments on 'Why don't you just build another factory?'" he said.

It's not that simple.

For the last three years prior to March, when the surge started, there was a lot of excess capacity in the market.

"With the excess capacity, it didn't make any sense to expand capacity even more," Vanderbrink said. "We want to utilize our factories at capacity as much as we can. If we made an investment today, it would be several years before we would see more capacity come to the market."

"We can't simply build a new factory or simply just expand," he said. "It doesn't happen that fast."

j.bergman@theday.com