When the man who twice defeated her, state Sen. Paul Formica, announced he would not seek a fifth term, Democrat Martha Marx had to hope Republicans would nominate a hard-right, Trump acolyte to run for the 20th District. The kind of candidate that she could persuade moderate voters to reject.

Instead, the party nominated Jerry Labriola Jr.

This has made Marx’s task much harder. She must get a significant number of voters who backed Formica in the last two elections to fill in the oval for her this time. But in Labriola she faces a Republican candidate much in the mold of Formica. In other words, a centrist, who advocates for lower taxation, complains of burdensome regulation on business, is free-market oriented, and leery of state government’s ability to fix things, such as housing affordability. But Labriola is also a Republican who knows President Biden won fair and square, is pro-choice, and who has said he would work to “maintain the protections that are guaranteed by the Affordable Care Act.”

The race is one to watch Tuesday. The open seat provides a chance for Democrats to regain a district the party has not held since Andrea Stillman retired. If Marx wins, she will join the progressive wing of the Democratic caucus in the Senate. That would strengthen the hand of President Pro Tempore Martin Looney in trying to push Gov. Ned Lamont further left on fiscal and social policy, should Lamont win re-election as polls project.

On the other hand, a Labriola victory could contribute to a coalition of Republicans and moderate Democrats that pushes back on some of the progressive agenda, strengthening Lamont, also a centrist, as he negotiates with lawmakers in the budget and policy debates to come.

The numbers Marx faces are daunting.

In 2018 she lost to Formica by 1,582 votes and in 2020 by 1,177. While Marx slightly closed the gap in her second try — and a third contest against a non-incumbent should arguably improve her chances — the math remains problematic for the Democrat.

In both 2018 and 2020, Marx defeated Formica in her highly Democratic hometown of New London 71% to 29%. That appears to be her ceiling, or nearly so, in that city, meaning it will be difficult to find more votes there. Both in 2018 and 2020 she lost in every other town in the 20th — Bozrah, East Lyme, Old Lyme, Salem, Waterford, Montville, and Old Saybrook.

To win, Marx must flip votes in the suburban towns. She could have moved politically toward the center, at least in her rhetoric, to try to win over moderates. But Marx is a proud progressive through and through and stuck to her agenda. She is ardently pro-labor, wants the state to get in the business of providing a public option on health care, would support boosting the income tax on the wealthy, advocates for stricter gun control, and wants the state to be more aggressive in pushing suburban towns to provide affordable housing.

Instead of moderating her own policies, Marx has sought to link Labriola to the hard-right wing of the Republican Party, which has grown significantly since the political ascendance of Donald Trump. Her best chance of victory comes in hoping that enough voters, particularly women, reject Labriola along with rejecting a national Republican agenda that includes restricting abortion rights and pushing election conspiracies.

But Labriola, an experienced politician, has given her nothing to work with and keeps returning to the theme that he is a bona fide centrist. He likes to talk about the economy.

Labriola grew up in Naugatuck, the son of state Sen. Jerry Labriola Sr. Long active in Republican politics, the younger Labriola was party chairman from 2011-2015. His family moved to Old Saybrook about six years ago. He is a real estate attorney.

Marx, a registered nurse, is a two-term New London councilor. She is also a union activist.

The race will provide one small litmus test whether the radical and troubling positions of the Republican Party nationally will hurt down-ticket Republicans locally. In this case, at least, I expect the answer will be no.

Editor’s note: This version corrects that Marx is not the the chair of the New London Democratic City Committee.

Paul Choiniere is the former editorial page editor of The Day, now retired. He can be reached at p.choiniere@yahoo.com.