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    Sunday, May 12, 2024

    Nervous investors waiting out the pandemic

    A sign for Wall Street on July 15, 2013, outside the New York Stock Exchange. Global stock markets are sharply lower on deepening worries over damage from the coronavirus pandemic. Benchmarks fell in Paris, London and Frankfurt on Wednesday, April 1, 2020. (Mark Lennihan/AP Photo, File)

    Financial advisers who survived the stock market crash of 2008 experienced a déjà vu moment in March as concerns over the coronavirus pandemic have sent equities tumbling to what could be their biggest one-month losses in history.

    "I know a lot of people are nervous," said Tom McGuigan, principal of Exencial Wealth Management in Old Lyme.

    "The biggest concern," added Josh Lyons of Lyons Asset Management in Old Mystic, "is what's going to happen? We don't know how long we're in this."

    "This is unprecedented," agreed Robert Henderson of Lansdowne Wealth Management in Mystic. "It's so hard for anybody — even financial experts — to evaluate what's going on."

    Market volatility began March 9 with a decline of more than 2,000 points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average of blue-chip stocks. What followed was stunning: On March 12, the Dow fell another 2,352 points, and on March 16 nearly another 3,000 points, the biggest one-day drop in history, both in terms of points and percentage.

    And that includes statistics going back to the Great Depression kicked off by the 1929 stock market crash.

    The market has since recovered some of the losses, thanks in part to an economic stimulus package passed by Congress, but on Tuesday the Dow Jones Industrials closed at 21,917.16, down more than 400 points on the day and nearly 14% for the month of March. The end of the month also closed out the worst first quarter in stock-market history, with the Dow Jones off 23.2%.

    And things didn't get any better Wednesday, with another nearly 1,000-point decline in the stock bellwether as the average closed at 20,943.51 on the day. That translated to a nearly 4.5% plunge.

    For veteran advisers, the downturn this time around had an eerie similarity to the financial crash of 2008-09, only this one came on much more suddenly and with little warning.

    "Typically there would be things leading up to a recession," Henderson said.  

    In this case, though, the market and economy had been perking along pretty well, according to the financial experts, until the enormous impact of the COVID-19 pandemic started to be felt as major cities virtually shut down overnight.

    Yet financial advisers said they have been receiving surprisingly few calls from clients compared to during the crash of 2008-09, when fear became so widespread that McGuigan's firm, for one, held a town-hall-type meeting for investors concerned about the future.

    "Last time, the decline was stretched out over two years — it just kept tumbling down," McGuigan said. "It not as severe yet, but this time the decline happened in weeks. It's the fastest decline maybe ever."

    This time, Exencial held an all-client webinar via the teleconferencing website Zoom, which didn't exist a dozen years ago. An in-person meeting, of course, wouldn't have been possible this month, considering state rules prohibiting large gatherings during the public health crisis.

    McGuigan said part of the reason that his clients haven't been calling incessantly to worry over their investments is a strategy his company has employed in recent years to set aside a five-year "war chest" to ensure that those of retirement age will be able to weather any financial storm. This means that clients are guided toward an investment strategy that could withstand a very long downturn in the market without having to sell equities to keep them afloat financially.

    Exencial clients early on typically meet twice a year to review their investment strategies, McGuigan said, which helps keep investors on top of various ways the company insulates them from market volatility.

    Lansdowne's Henderson agreed that communication with clients is key. He has sent out a steady stream of email blasts to clients and just started producing videos, as well.

    "It's not like sending out a quarterly update," he said. "This situation is so different — it's almost hard to get your meaning across in words. Sending out video really helps to provide the right level of emphasis for certain things."

    Henderson said a few clients still are reaching him by phone to talk over the situation but he hasn't seen a lot of panicking, as in the last major downturn presaging the Great Recession. That's when major financial institutions, including Lehman Brothers, were going belly-up and others, such as Merrill Lynch, were teetering on the edge.

    "Most people sort of get it; they understand what's going on," Henderson said. "What we're all going through now, we can see it all unfolding in front of us, and we're all part of it, in a way."

    Lyons said he believes much of the coronavirus' effect on the U.S. economy had been priced into the stock market by the end of last week, but he wouldn't be entirely surprised if the Dow Jones indicators eventually fell to 17,000 or 18,000 points, which would be another 10% to 15% dip.

    "It's going to create a recession," he said. "It's not going to come back that quickly."

    Still, financial advisers are strong advocates of the stock market over the long haul, so Lyons expects that people with cash on the sidelines will begin investing again at some point, and the market would find a bottom and steadily rise from there.

    "We've been here before," said John Bairos of Edward Jones in Waterford. "We look on this as an opportunity and tell people they should be maintaining a long-term perspective."

    Some financial advisers said anyone intending to retire in the next six to 18 months might want to rethink their plans and keep an eye on the market for a few months before firming up their plans. But anyone with longer-term retirement goals should be unaffected by the current downturn, they added.

    Lyons said he had two clients in their early 60s who were planning to retire in the next 10 to 16 months, but they are rethinking their decision right now.

    "They could wait it out another year if they had to," he said.

    And that's the current question on everyone's mind: How long will it take for the country to emerge from an unprecedented self-imposed recession caused by a massive quarantine to save people's lives?

    "It'll be a tough road back for a lot of people," Henderson said. "Hopefully the economy is strong enough."

    l.howard@theday.com

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