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    Saturday, May 18, 2024

    Analysis: 5 reasons why Hurricane Idalia wasn't as bad as feared

    Employee Lisa Bell dumps out a shovel full of mud as business owners and employees start cleaning up at the storm-damaged business The Marina, in Horseshoe Beach, Fla., Thursday, Aug. 31, 2023, one day after the passage of Hurricane Idalia. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

    Hurricane Idalia made landfall Wednesday morning along Florida's Big Bend as a high-end Category 3 storm, tying for the strongest hurricane to ever strike the region. While Idalia destroyed buildings, produced historic flooding, left more than 250,000 customers without power and led to two deaths as it barreled northeast across four states, the emerging consensus is that it could have been worse.

    Here are five reasons that Idalia's impacts weren't as severe as they could have been.

    - - -

    Idalia arrived at low tide

    Idalia made landfall Wednesday near Keaton Beach, around 7:45 a.m. Eastern time, bringing a large storm surge and flooding to Florida's Big Bend and elsewhere along the state's Gulf Coast. The surge and flooding could have been worse, though, had Idalia arrived during high tide.

    Instead, "the peak surge almost perfectly coincided with low tide, meaning 3 feet less inundation than the next high tide," tweeted Kieran Bhatia, a meteorologist for the reinsurance brokerage Guy Carpenter. Forecasts predicted storm surges as high as 16 feet in some locations, but reports indicate that peak surges may have only reached as high as 10 feet - still enough to produce record high water levels and severe coastal inundation, including an 8- to 9-foot surge at Cedar Key and a 5-foot surge in Tampa and St. Petersburg.

    - - -

    Idalia weakened just before landfall

    After rapidly intensifying Tuesday into Tuesday night, from a Category 1 storm with winds near 75 mph to a Category 4 storm with winds near 130 mph, Idalia weakened to a Category 3 storm with winds near 125 mph just before landfall. That slight decrease in intensity probably lowered observed wind gusts from what they could have been.

    Idalia's rapid intensification was fueled by extremely warm Gulf of Mexico waters. But in the hours before landfall, the storm underwent what's called an "eyewall replacement cycle." The phenomenon is a relatively common occurrence in strong hurricanes, in which the existing eye of the storm disintegrates and is replaced by a new eye that forms around it, temporarily weakening the storm.

    Peak wind gusts near the storm's landfall location of around 75 to 85 mph caused extensive damage in Florida towns including Perry, Horseshoe Beach, Steinhatchee and Cedar Key. And since weather stations are relatively sparse in that region, there could have been stronger gusts that were not measured. But the observed winds would almost certainly have been stronger if the eyewall replacement cycle had not occurred when it did.

    - - -

    Idalia hit an area with lower population

    Idalia happened to make landfall in one of the least-populated areas of Florida, where most counties have fewer than 100 people per square mile, according to 2020 census data. That appears to have helped limit the deaths, injuries and damage from the storm, with only two fatalities reported thus far. On the other hand, the financial impact for those who incurred damage could be relatively high because many people in the region don't have flood insurance.

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Wednesday there were no immediate indicators of mass deaths from the storm. Last year, Hurricane Ian made landfall near Fort Myers, one of the more densely populated areas of the state. Ian led to more than 150 deaths and caused over $112 billion in damage.

    - - -

    Idalia moved relatively fast

    Idalia was a relatively fast mover as far as hurricanes go, traveling at nearly 20 mph as it made landfall and tracked across the U.S. Southeast. The storm's speed limited the amount of rainfall it could dump as it passed through portions of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

    So while there was plenty of flooding from both heavy rain and storm surge, peak rainfall amounts of around 8 to 12 inches could have been worse if the storm had moved more slowly. Hurricane Harvey, for example, unloaded as much as 60 inches of rain when it stalled for days over Texas in 2017.

    - - -

    The forecast for Idalia was extremely accurate

    The National Hurricane Center's track forecast for Idalia was extremely accurate, allowing ample lead time for preparation and evacuations. The Hurricane Center's first landfall forecast on Saturday was less than 13 miles from where Idalia ultimately made landfall four days later. Between Saturday and Wednesday's landfall, the forecast track remained consistent and centered on the Big Bend region. The accurate track forecast led to an accurate rainfall forecast as well.

    The Hurricane Center also correctly predicted that Idalia would rapidly intensify as it tracked north across the Gulf of Mexico, although initial forecasts underestimated the storm's strength at landfall until about two days before.

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