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    Thursday, May 09, 2024

    How Olympics delay complicates USA Basketball's Dream Team plans

    Rarely has a gold medal felt as trivial as it did this week, when the International Olympic Committee announced that the 2020 Tokyo Games will be postponed because of the novel coronavirus.

    For USA Basketball, there was plenty at stake this summer. The program's chase for a fourth straight Olympic gold. A revenge tour following a dismal seventh-place finish at the 2019 FIBA World Cup in China. A triumphant send-off for Gregg Popovich, the legendary coach seeking a career-capping gold. The possibility of a fourth Olympic appearance for LeBron James, basketball's biggest superstar, and an Olympic debut for Stephen Curry.

    Like everything else these days, those story lines will have to wait.

    "USAB is in full agreement and support of the decision to postpone," American basketball's governing body said in a brief statement Tuesday. "The health, wellness and safety of the world, as well as our athletes, coaches, staff and fans, is USAB's No. 1 priority and this postponement was necessary to ensure that. As further details become known, USAB will work towards fielding and best preparing its Olympic basketball teams for 2021."

    The process of constructing a roster isn't top of mind right now, with the NBA's season suspended and the coronavirus's death toll climbing. But the one-year delay will have major roster implications, at minimum, and it could create a direct schedule conflict if the NBA resumes play this summer.

    Two pieces who won't change: Managing Director Jerry Colangelo and Popovich, who both recommitted this week.

    The good news: Colangelo, who has headed USAB since 2005, need not worry about the impact of aging or retirements, and the one-year delay could help buy him some time with notable names who dealt with injury issues this season.

    James, who will be 36 next summer, is easily the oldest serious candidate in the player pool. He remains one of the NBA's top talents and is under contract with the Los Angeles Lakers through 2022. The same rule that would have applied this summer will apply next summer: If James wants to play, a spot will be waiting.

    Kevin Durant was weighing the possibility of playing in Tokyo, his business partner Rich Kleiman told The Washington Post last month, but he would have only been 13 months out from tearing his Achilles'. Rather than working his way back onto the court for the first time in July 2020, Durant could be close to full health and have a full season under his belt by July 2021.

    Kyrie Irving, Durant's teammate on the Brooklyn Nets, underwent shoulder surgery in early March. Curry missed most of this season with a broken hand, and Klay Thompson, his backcourt partner on the Golden State Warriors, has been sidelined all year following knee surgery. Even Zion Williamson, who returned to the court for the New Orleans Pelicans in January after undergoing minor knee surgery in October, could be in a better position physically to represent his country in 2021.

    James, Durant, Irving, Curry, Thompson and Williamson would put USAB halfway to a full-fledged Dream Team. Throw in Paul George, James Harden, Damian Lillard, Jimmy Butler, Jayson Tatum and Bam Adebayo, all of whom were included in USAB's 44-man player pool back in February, and world domination starts to feel like a foregone conclusion.

    The central dilemma for Colangelo, though, is twofold: The Tokyo Olympics haven't been officially rescheduled for next summer, and the NBA hasn't decided if or when it will resume the 2019-20 season this summer. How and when, exactly, both events are rescheduled will determine whether USAB can count on its top talent for Tokyo.

    Let's say the Olympics were rescheduled for the spring or early summer, rather than for late July. USAB would be stuck without a Dream Team because NBA players would be tied up with their day jobs. Ditto for Popovich, should he return to coach the San Antonio Spurs next season. Such a scenario has recent precedents, as USAB has turned to G-League players and non-NBA coaches for recent qualifying tournaments that conflicted with the NBA season.

    Or, imagine if the NBA resumes play in June or July, which would push the 2020 Finals back to August or September. That cascading delay could delay the start of the 2020-21 season and, in turn, push back the end of the 2021 playoffs. That could create a direct conflict with the Olympics, even if they were to take place in July 2021. Potential headliners like James, Durant and Curry might still be chasing the Larry O'Brien Trophy when USAB would need to begin its Olympic preparations. In this scenario, USAB might be able to scrounge up a roster of players from lottery teams.

    From USAB's perspective, the cleanest scenario would be: The NBA doesn't resume play this summer, the 2020-21 season starts as planned in October and the Olympics are pushed back a year to July 2021. Even then, there would only be a one-month gap between the end of the Finals and the start of the Olympics. In a normal year, that tight turnaround might turn off some veterans, especially those who are coming off deep playoff runs. Obviously, this is no normal year. Who would blame on-the-fence players for staying home due to the accumulated psychological toll of the coronavirus?

    Even before this recent turn of events, USAB was consumed by recruiting problems. A-list stars skipped the World Cup process entirely, and a long list of B-listers withdrew as the competition grew closer. Indeed, international competition requires top-level, highly paid players to give up a month of their summers, assume extra injury risk, work around their NBA commitments and contract negotiations, and compete in an unforgiving, gold-or-bust environment.

    Now, USAB must add schedule conflicts and concerns about international travel, among other virus-related topics, to its long list of hurdles.

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