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    Thursday, May 02, 2024

    Rising values help narrow perception gap in July appraisals

    Although homeowners continued to overvalue their homes in July, their perceptions on the property's value were closer to the figure determined by appraisers.

    The retail mortgage lender Quicken Loans recently updated its National Home Price Perception Index, determining that the average appraised home value in the United States was 1.69 percent lower than the value the homeowner expected. The gap between the appraisal and homeowner expectations was down from 1.93 percent in June.

    Quicken Loans has calculated the Home Price Perception Index for several years. The gap between appraisals and homeowner expectations reached its lowest point in late 2008, when the average appraisal was more than 8 percent less than expected. Average appraisals began to exceed expectations in late 2013, with the typical appraisal coming in 2 percent higher than expected in mid-2014. For the past year, the average appraisal has hovered around 2 percent below homeowner expectations.

    The report notes how the typical difference between how much a homeowner thinks their property is worth and the value determined by an appraiser will vary considerably based on geography. The average appraisal was 1.87 percent below expectations in the Northeast, 1.81 percent lower in the Midwest, 1.65 percent lower in the South, and 1.5 percent lower in the West.

    In addition to these regions, Quicken Loans tracks the differences between appraisals and perceptions in 27 major metropolitan areas. The typical appraisal was higher than expected in 12 cities and lower than expected in 15 cities. Expectations were closest to the appraisal in Miami, Florida, where the average appraisal was only .02 percent lower than what a homeowner expected.

    Values were most likely to be higher than expected in Denver, Colorado, where the average appraisal was 3.1 percent greater than homeowners' perceptions. They were 2.52 percent higher than expected in San Jose, California, and 2.36 percent higher in San Francisco, Calif.

    Homeowners were most likely to overestimate their home's value in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, where the average appraisal was 3.4 percent lower than expected. The typical appraisal came in 3.24 percent lower than expected in Detroit, Michigan and 3.05 percent lower in Baltimore, Maryland.

    "One of the most important things for consumers to take away from the HPPI is just how regionalized housing truly is," said Bob Walters, chief economist at Quicken Loans. "While those on the West Coast are being surprised by their high appraisals, homeowners in the Northeast and Midwest are more likely to be shocked by their low values. If homeowners keep an eye on local home sales, they can be better aware of their current home value and not be shocked when they go to sell or refinance."

    In addition to its analysis of home value perception, Quicken Loans does a monthly update of its Home Value Index. This figure stood at 99.59; a figure of 100 indicates that values are equal to those in January 2005. Home values were up 1.43 percent from June and 6.24 percent from the previous year.

    "Home values across the country have been growing at a rapid pace, driven by especially enthusiastic buyers this summer," said Walters. "While the lack of inventory compared to the mass of interested buyers has been the narrative for some time, the effect on the market has intensified as competition for available homes heated up and quickened the pace of rising home values."

    The West had the highest Home Value Index at 118.49, an increase of 0.74 percent from June and 6.55 percent from July 2015. The figure in the South exceeded 100 in July, rising 1.57 percent from the previous month and 6.26 percent from the previous year to stand at 101.52.

    In the Northeast, the Home Value Index stood at 95.82 in July, up 1.13 percent from June and 3.85 percent from July 2016. The figure for the Midwest region rose 2.45 percent from the previous month and 6.84 percent from the previous year to stand at 83.51.

    The Home Value Index is based on appraisal data from recent home purchases and refinances in the United States. The Home Price Perception Index compares the estimated value of a property on refinance mortgages to the value which is later determined by an appraiser.

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