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    Real Estate
    Saturday, April 27, 2024

    Volatility continues in Fannie Mae's monthly housing survey

    Swings in attitudes toward the housing market and economy continued in March, as Fannie Mae described the recent months of its National Housing Survey as volatile.

    The most recent survey resulted in a Home Purchase Sentiment Index of 88.3, up from 85.8 in February but falling below a high of 89.5 reached in January. The index was also up by 3.8 points over March 2017.

    The Home Purchase Sentiment Index is based on six factors in the National Housing Survey. These include whether a respondent thinks it is a good time to buy or sell a home, expected changes to home prices and mortgage rates, job security, and changes to household income in the past year.

    "The primary driver of this month's increase was the sizable rise in the net share of consumers who think it's a good time to buy a home, which returned the indicator to its year-ago level," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "On the whole, a slight majority of consumers continue to express optimism regarding the overall direction of the economy."

    Sixty-two percent of respondents said they thought it was a good time to purchase a home, up 5 percentage points from February and 2 percentage points from March 2017. The share of respondents who thought it was a bad time to buy a home dropped 5 percentage points from February to 30 percent, matching the share recorded a year ago.

    Respondents continued to view the current real estate situation as a seller's market, with two-thirds saying it was a good time to list a home – up from 63 percent in the previous month and 60 percent in the previous year. Twenty-seven percent thought it was a bad time to sell, unchanged from the previous month and down 2 percentage points from March 2017. The net share of respondents who indicated it was a good time to sell matched a survey high of 39 percent, last recorded in June 2017.

    Seventy percent of respondents said they would buy their next home if they were to move, up from 66 percent in February and 65 percent in March 2017. The share indicating that they would rent fell from 30 percent in the previous year and 29 percent in the previous month to 26 percent.

    A growing share of respondents expected that it would not be hard for them to qualify for a mortgage, with 59 percent saying this process would be easy. This was up from 57 percent in the previous month and 54 percent in the previous year. Thirty-seven percent said they thought it would be hard to qualify for a mortgage, down 4 percentage points from February and 6 percentage points from March 2017.

    Respondents showed more uncertainty over whether they expected home prices to continue growing. Fifty-one percent said they thought prices would go up in the next 12 months, the same share as in March 2017. However, this was down from 58 percent in January and 52 percent in February. Nine percent said they thought prices would go down, up 2 percentage points from both the previous month and previous year.

    The average respondent expected home prices to grow by 3 percent over the next 12 months. This was also unchanged from the previous year, but down from 3.7 percent in January and 3.3 percent in February.

    Fifty-seven percent said they believe mortgage rates will go up in the next 12 months, down from 62 percent in the previous month and 64 percent in the previous year. Only 5 percent thought rates will go down, however; this share was unchanged from February and up 1 percentage point from March 2017.

    Fifty-eight percent said they expect home rental prices will increase in the next 12 months, up 1 percentage point from a year ago but down 1 percentage point from the previous month. Only 2 percent thought rents will go down, a drop of 2 percentage points from February and 1 percentage point from March 2017. On average, respondents expected rental prices to climb by 4.5 percent over the next 12 months – up slightly from expected increases of 4.1 percent in March 2017 and 4.4 percent in February.

    Concerns about potential unemployment remained steady, with 85 percent saying they were not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months. This share was unchanged from the previous month and previous year. Fourteen percent said they were concerned about possibly losing their job, unchanged from the previous month and down 1 percentage point from the previous year.

    Twenty-eight percent said their household income has increased significantly in the past 12 months, up from 23 percent in March 2017 and 26 percent in February. Eleven percent said their income has gone down significantly, up 2 percentage points from the previous month but down 1 percentage point from the previous year.

    Fifty-two percent said they expect their personal financial situation to get better in the next 12 months, up 3 percentage points from both the previous month and previous year. Eleven percent said they think it will get worse, an increase of 2 percentage points from February and 1 percentage point from March 2017.

    Fifty-three percent said they believe the U.S. economy is on the right track, the same as the previous month's survey and up 6 percentage points from March 2017. Thirty-eight percent said they think the economy is on the wrong track, up 3 percentage points from February but down by the same amount compared to the previous year.

    Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey, which has been issued since June 2010, polls a sample of 1,000 Americans by telephone each month. Respondents are asked more than 100 question to determine changes in attitudes on a number of topics related to the economy and housing market.

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