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    Sunday, May 05, 2024

    Survey: Things are looking up

    In this January photo, workers walk out from a construction site at the Central Business District of Beijing, China. From the United States to Asia to Europe, a global economy that many feared was at risk of stalling appears poised for a resurgence on the strength of cheap oil and falling interest rates.

    Washington - From the United States to Asia to Europe, a global economy that many had feared was faltering appears poised for a resurgence on the strength of cheap oil and falling interest rates.

    That's the strikingly upbeat view of economists surveyed by The Associated Press, who no longer see Europe's financial crisis, the U.S. housing market or congressional gridlock as the threats they appeared to be last year.

    "The U.S. is doing well, you're getting a lot of good news in Europe," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight. "The global economy is gaining traction."

    U.S. consumers are feeling flusher, thanks to lower gas prices, a burst of hiring and long-awaited if still-modest pay raises for many. Their spending is expected to boost growth this year in the United States and overseas.

    The brighter outlook marks a turnaround from last fall, when a looming war in Ukraine, the rise of the Islamic State terror group and a reluctance by the European Central Bank to expand its stimulus efforts led analysts to downgrade their view of the global economy.

    Weaker growth in China has also hurt exporting countries from Latin America to Australia that had long benefited from China's appetite for farm products, copper, iron ore and other commodities. China's growth decelerated last year to its slowest pace in a quarter-century.

    Still, most economists expect China to avoid a further slowdown. Its central bank cut rates last weekend for the second time in three months to try to accelerate growth.

    Data released Wednesday in Europe underscored the growing optimism about that region's long-troubled economy. Retail sales in the 19 nations that share the euro jumped in January by the most in 18 months. Retail spending has soared in the past 12 months by the most in a decade.

    A separate report from financial information company Markit found that the eurozone economy grew in February at its fastest rate in seven months. The report was based on surveys of purchasing managers at manufacturing and service companies.

    The AP surveyed nearly three dozen corporate, Wall Street and academic economists from Feb. 19 to 25. A majority said they thought struggling economies in Europe and Japan would benefit from lower-priced energy and ultra-low loan rates engineered by central banks.

    Behravesh predicted that freer-spending U.S. consumers would provide help. He noted that their collective spending represents a bigger force than any other nation's economy.

    American consumers have benefited from the 1 million-plus jobs U.S. employers have added in the past three months. More than 3.2 million more Americans are earning paychecks than were 12 months ago.

    In January, U.S. gas prices reached a five-year low, though they've since rebounded. A gallon cost an average of $2.44 nationwide Tuesday, more than a dollar cheaper than it did 12 months ago, according to AAA.

    So far, many Americans have saved the extra cash from lower gas prices. But even that's a hopeful sign: It means consumers, who fuel about 70 percent of the U.S. economy, have more money to spend in coming months. The U.S. savings rate reached a two-year high in January.

    SURVEY SAYS ...

    Among the other views the AP's survey of economists revealed:

    • The Federal Reserve will likely start raising its key short-term rate from record lows in September. That's a shift from the AP's previous survey last fall, when most of the economists predicted a rate hike in June.

    • The outlook for broad-based U.S. pay increases is brightening. A majority think the average hourly wage will begin growing at least 3 percent a year sometime between the middle of this year and mid-2016.

    • With a rise in the number of Americans forming households, home construction should accelerate this year and help stimulate economic growth.

    December shoppers are reflected in a store's window as they walk through Chicago's Loop. U.S. consumer spending is expected to boost growth in 2015 in the United States and overseas.

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