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    Real Estate
    Saturday, May 04, 2024

    Housing perceptions fall slightly in Fannie Mae monthly survey

    Fewer Americans considered it a good time to buy or sell a home in October, according to the results of the latest National Housing Survey issued by Fannie Mae. However, the survey also showed some improvement in consumer opinions toward the economy and their personal job security.

    The Home Purchase Sentiment Index fell 0.6 percentage points to 83.2, although this figure marked an increase of 0.7 percentage points from October 2014. The HPSI is derived from the results of six questions of the National Housing Survey, including opinions on whether it is a good time to buy or sell a home, anticipated changes in home prices and mortgage rates, perceived job security, and household income.

    Sixty-two percent of respondents considered it a good time to buy a home, down 2 percent from the previous month and 3 percent from the previous year. Twenty-eight percent thought it was a bad time to sell, unchanged from September but up 1 percent from last year.

    The share of respondents considering it a good time to sell a home declined from a survey high of 52 percent in September to 51 percent in October, although this share was still 7 percentage points higher than the previous year. Forty-one percent considered it a bad time to sell a home, up 5 percentage points from the previous month but down 6 percentage points from October 2014.

    "The income growth necessary for renewed momentum in housing market sentiment remains elusive, even though consumers' confidence in their job security continues to strengthen," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "Consumers' net view on whether their household income has improved over the last year is down once again this month. Some consumers may be hesitant or unwilling to commit to buying or selling a home without seeing meaningful improvement in their wages and salaries. Still, the HPSI remains close to its near all-time high level of the past four years and, given the strong October jobs report, suggests that any cooling in near-term activity, if it occurs, should be moderate."

    Respondents remained relatively confident in the future of home values, with 46 percent expecting that home prices will increase in the next 12 months. This was a 1 percentage point increase from September and a 2 percentage point increase from the previous year.

    Eight percent said they believe home prices will go down in the next year. This share was down 1 percentage point from September and up 1 percentage point from October of 2014.

    The average expected change in home prices over the next year was 2.5 percent, a more modest figure than in recent surveys. The expectation was 3.1 percent in September and 2.8 percent in October 2014.

    Fewer people expect mortgage rates to go up, with this share dropping from 55 percent in September to 51 percent in October. However, this figure was still 3 percentage points higher than in October 2014. Five percent expect mortgage rates to go down, unchanged from the previous two months and down 1 percentage point from last year.

    Respondents continued to be evenly split on whether they thought it would be easy or difficult to get a mortgage. Forty-nine percent believed it would be easy, down 1 percentage point from September but up 1 percentage point from October 2014. Forty-seven percent believed it would be difficult, unchanged from the previous year and down 3 percentage points from last year.

    More respondents expected home rental prices to increase in the next 12 months, with 58 percent holding this opinion. This share was up 4 percentage points from September and 9 percentage points from last year. Thirty-four percent think rents will stay the same, a 3 percentage point decrease from last month and 7 percentage point decline from a year ago. The share of those expecting rents to go down held at 4 percent.

    The expected 12-month change in home rental prices was 4.2 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from September. However, this expected change was also half a percentage point higher than in October 2014, when the expected change was 3.7 percent.

    Sixty-three percent said they would buy a home if they were to move, down 4 percentage points from September and 2 percentage points from last year. The share indicating that they would rent their next home if they were to move rose from 29 percent in September and 30 percent in October 2014 to 31 percent in the most recent survey.

    The share of respondents who said they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months has increased each month since July, tying a high point of 85 percent in the October survey. This share was the same as in October 2014 and 1 percentage point higher than in September.

    Fourteen percent said they were concerned about losing their job. This share was unchanged from last year and 1 percentage point lower than the previous month.

    Fewer people indicated that their household income has gone up in the past year. Twenty-four percent said their income has increased significantly, down 4 percentage points from September and 1 percentage point from October 2014. The share whose household income was significantly lower than a year ago stayed at 13 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year.

    Forty-five percent expect their personal financial situation to improve in the next 12 months, unchanged from the previous month or previous year. Forty-two percent believe it will stay the same, up 1 percentage point from September but down 1 percentage point from October 2014. Twelve percent believe their financial situation will worsen, a decrease of 1 percentage point from September but an increase of 2 percentage points from October 2014.

    A majority of respondents considered the economy to be on the wrong track, although this share fell from 57 percent in September to 55 percent in October; however, this was still 2 percentage points higher than in October 2014. The share of those who consider the economy to be on the right track increased from 35 percent in September to 37 percent in October, 3 percentage points lower than a year ago.

    The National Housing Survey has been issued each month since June 2010. A sample of 1,000 Americans is interviewed via telephone to gauge opinions on the economy and housing market through their responses to more than 100 questions.

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