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    Sunday, May 05, 2024

    Gap between appraisals, homeowner estimates narrows to 1 percent

    The average appraised value of homes in the United States in November was only 1 percent less than the homeowner's estimate, according to the retail mortgage lender Quicken Loans.

    This marked the fifth consecutive month where the gap between the estimated value and appraised value narrowed. The typical appraisal was 1.56 percent less than a homeowner's expectation in August, 1.26 percent lower in September, and 1.15 percent lower in October.

    Homeowners have typically overestimated their property's value in recent years. Quicken Loans found that the average appraisal fell more than 8 percent below a homeowner's expectation in 2008, and remained at least 6 percent lower than anticipated until 2011.

    The gap between appraisals and homeowner expectations gradually narrowed after that point, and the typical appraisal was about 2 percent more than expected for much of 2014. Appraisals were about 2 percent less than expected starting in mid-2015, but estimates have been moving closer to the mark since April.

    "The HPPI [Home Price Perception Index] compares the perceived gap between the homeowner and the appraiser's opinion of a home's value and has provided an intriguing look into the psychographics of our housing market," said Bob Walters, chief economist at Quicken Loans. "The most recent HPPI indicates homeowners and appraisers are closer to agreeing at the end of 2016 than they were at the start of the new year. It's our hope that with this information the only surprises this holiday season are the ones wrapped under the tree."

    In addition to the national average, Quicken Loans measures the HPPI for four geographic regions and 27 major metropolitan areas. The gap was widest in the Midwest, where the average appraisal was 1.32 percent less than expected, and narrowest in the West, where it was 0.77 percent less than expected. Appraisals were typically 1.15 percent lower than homeowner estimates in the Northeast and 0.99 percent lower in the South.

    Average appraisals in 16 of the cities were higher than a homeowner expected. The typical appraisal was 3.1 percent more than the homeowner's estimate in Denver, 2.19 percent higher in San Francisco, and 2.12 percent higher in Portland, Oregon.

    Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Detroit continued to be the cities where homeowner overestimates were most prominent. The average appraisal fell 2.87 percent short of expectations in Philadelphia, 2.62 percent short in Baltimore, and 2.11 percent short in Detroit.

    Home values continued to rise in November, with the average appraised value going up 5.28 percent from November 2015. The typical value was also up 0.42 percent from October and 5.54 percent from the start of 2016.

    The Home Value Index for the nation stood at 100.82. A figure of 100 indicates values equal to those of January 2005.

    "Home values pushed higher throughout 2016, largely driven by lack of supply in the hottest markets," said Walters. "It's yet to be seen if these increases will continue or wane as homebuilding grows, boosting inventory."

    The HVI in the Northeast rose to 97.53, a 1.12 percent increase from October and 3.79 percent from November 2015. The figure for the West stood at 121.61, up 1.07 percent from the previous month and 7.32 percent from the previous year.

    The HVI for the South was down 0.31 percent from October, but had a year-over-year gain of 3.29 percent to reach 101.3. The figure of 83.1 in the Midwest represented a 0.41 percent increase from October and 4.73 percent increase from November 2015.

    Both the HPPI and HVI are based on appraisal data from home purchases and mortgage refinances. The HPPI is based on the differences between the estimated values homeowners assign their residence while applying for a mortgage refinance and the values determined by appraisers later in the process.

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