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    Real Estate
    Monday, May 06, 2024

    Optimism for selling hits record high in Fannie Mae survey for January

    Nearly two-thirds of the respondents in Fannie Mae's latest monthly survey said they consider it a good time to sell a home in January, a new record high for the poll. Respondents were also more likely to believe home prices will continue to grow than at any other time in the survey.

    Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index also hit a new high point, reversing a decline at the end of 2017 and growing to 89.5. This index is based on six factors in Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey, including perceptions on whether it is a good time to buy or sell a home, expected changes to home prices and mortgage rates, perceived job security, and changes to household income.

    "Results may continue to fluctuate over the coming months as consumers sort out the implications of the newly passed tax legislation on their household finances," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "Over the past year, continued home price growth has helped spur a sizable increase in the net share of consumers who say it's a good time to sell a home but also a modest weakening in the net share who say it is a good time to buy. At the start of 2018, it is still too early to determine the overall effect of the new tax legislation on housing, and we will need to see whether positive impacts on both housing demand and supply materialize in the coming months."

    Sixty-five percent of respondents in January's survey said they consider it a good time to sell a home, up 3 percentage points from the previous month and 13 percentage points from the previous year. The share considering it a bad time to sell dropped from 37 percent in January 2017 and 28 percent in December to 27 percent.

    Fifty-eight percent said they think home prices will increase in the next 12 months, a jump of 8 percentage points from both the previous month and previous year to set a new record high. Six percent said they think prices will go down, unchanged from December but down 2 percentage points from January 2017.

    On average, respondents said they expect home prices to grow 3.7 percent over the next year. This was up slightly from the average growth expectations of 3.3 percent in December and 3.2 percent in January 2017.

    Attitudes toward buying remained relatively unchanged, with 59 percent considering it a good time to purchase a home. This was up 1 percentage point from the previous month, but down 1 percentage point from the previous year. Thirty-two percent considered it a bad time to sell a home, up 1 percentage point from January 2017 but down 2 percentage points from December.

    More respondents expected that it would be easy to get a mortgage, with this share rising from 50 percent in the previous year and 52 percent in the previous month to 57 percent. Thirty-nine percent said they thought it would be difficult to get a mortgage, down 5 percentage points from December and 7 percentage points from January 2017.

    Fifty-five percent said they think mortgage rates will go up in the next 12 months, down 1 percentage point from the previous month and 6 percentage points from the previous year. Five percent said they believe rates will drop, unchanged from the previous month and down 1 percentage point from the previous year.

    Respondents continued to favor buying over renting if they were to move, with 67 percent saying they would purchase their next home if they relocated. This share was down 2 percentage points from December, but up 3 percentage points from January 2017. Twenty-eight percent said they would rent, up 1 percentage point from the previous month but down 2 percentage points from the previous year.

    Fifty-nine percent said they think home rental prices will climb in the next 12 months, down 2 percentage points from December but a year-over-year increase of 5 percentage points. Four percent said they think rents will go down, unchanged from the previous year but up from 1 percent in the previous month. On average, respondents said they expect rents to grow by 4.8 percent in the next 12 months – down from 5.2 percent in December but up from 4.3 percent in January 2017.

    Twenty-seven percent said their household income is higher than it was a year ago, an increase of 1 percentage point from both the previous month and previous year. Eleven percent said their household income is significantly lower, up 1 percentage point from December but unchanged from the previous year.

    Respondents were more likely to have higher expectations for their personal finances, with 52 percent expecting them to get better in the next 12 months – up from 49 percent in December and 51 percent in January 2017. The share expecting their personal financial situation to worsen fell from 12 percent in the previous year and 11 percent in the previous month to 10 percent.

    Eighty-six percent said they were not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months, up 3 percentage points from the previous year and 2 percentage points from the previous month. Thirteen percent said they were concerned about potentially being unemployed, down 2 percentage points from both the previous month and previous year.

    Half of the survey's respondents considered the economy to be on the right track, down 2 percentage points from the previous month but a year-over-year increase of 4 percentage points. Thirty-eight percent believed the economy was on the wrong track, down 4 percentage points from January 2017 and 3 percentage points from December.

    Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey conducts telephone interviews with approximately 1,000 American adults each month, asking more than 100 questions to gauge changing perceptions toward the housing market and economy. The survey has been conducted each month since June 2010.

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