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    Friday, May 10, 2024

    Salem's growth, like its aging population, is slowing down

    Salem — Back when Linda Swanson was a kid growing up in Salem in the 1960s, it was rare to see anyone drive by the house that she didn't recognize.

    "I think there might have been only eight or so that came by in a whole day," she said. "Now they just fly by."

    The Swansons were at the forefront of the population boom that spanned the 1960s to the early 2000s, as new residents escaped more congested locales and made the town a regional leader in population growth.

    Swanson said the family moved to Scott Hill Road from Noank when she was 5 years old so her parents could tend the fields and her brothers could ride their own horse on the 8-acre farm.

    Data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows there were 925 residents who called Salem home in 1960. By 2010, the 29 square miles of rolling hills and forests encompassed 4,151 inhabitants.

    It's a trend that has slowed, according to the most recent census numbers, to a 1% increase in the past 10 years.

    Data also show Salem's population has gotten significantly older, and while home sales have remained relatively steady, new home construction — as evidenced by construction permit numbers — has dropped considerably.

    The boom

    Nan Winans was a single mother when she moved to town from Mystic in 1975. She said she was looking for good schools and recreation when she settled on a house near Gardner Lake with well-regarded Norwich Free Academy as the designated high school.

    She said she came to Salem because she could not afford to purchase a comparable house in Mystic.

    "I was told that the population was 1,800 and was not likely to increase much because the town was built on ledge and had a high water table," she said. "So much for that."

    In a 1985 report from The Day, then-First Selectman Hugh C. Teel was surprised to find the small town had become the fastest growing town in New London County. "I knew we were growing fast, but I didn't know it was that fast," he said at the time.

    Officials through the years have attributed much of that growth to city dwellers who retreated here after tiring of the crowds.

    "It's in a good position geographically for workers who commute to major employment centers in Hartford, Norwich and New London," then-Town Planner Gerhard J. Amt said in 1993. "There also are an awful lot of lots approved in subdivisions that are available. There is still the potential for significant continued growth."

    Then there's Route 11. It turns out the so-called "highway to nowhere" might have helped make someplace out of Salem, after all.

    Current Salem Planning and Zoning Chairman Vernon Smith noted the late 20th-century population boom might correlate with the completion of Route 11. "Or at least Route 11 ending in Salem," he corrected himself. "God knows Route 11 is not completed."

    The highway was proposed in the 1950s as a relocation of Route 85, a former wagon trail, to forge a quicker route between Hartford and New London. The 16-mile expressway was to connect Route 2 in Colchester to an area near the present-day Interstates 95 and 395 interchange in Waterford.

    But there was only enough money to build a 7.5-mile portion of the highway through the woods from Colchester to Salem. It opened in 1972, dumping drivers unceremoniously onto Route 82 among the weeds.

    In a 1993 article in The Day, Route 11 was identified as the town's link to the Hartford labor market and a factor in the roughly 40% population increase from 10 years prior.

    Census data show population numbers over the past several decades went from a 17% increase in 2000 to 8% in 2010 to the current 1% increase.

    Yet Salem remains one of only three towns in the county — along with Ledyard and Preston — that grew at all over the past decade. Overall, the county's population dropped by 2%.

    David Bingham, a former member of the Planning and Zoning Commission for more than three decades and the founder of the Salem Land Trust, pointed to a lack of housing options as one factor slowing the town's growth. He said developers hurt when the housing bubble burst in 2008 since have been hesitant to build the kind of large subdivisions that drove the population increase in the 1970s and '80s.

    "Those houses tended to be purchased by young and growing families that expanded during the '90s and early 2000s," he said.

    Now, that population is aging.

    Bingham, a retired obstetrician, predicted a continuing decline in the baseline reproductive rate based on a larger proportion of women now past their childbearing years and younger families generally choosing to have fewer children.

    Land conservation is another factor familiar to Bingham that he said affects population growth here. He is the vice president of the Hiram Bingham Development Company, which sold development rights to 490 acres of family land to keep the space open and protected in perpetuity.

    He said the Eightmile River, Latimer Brook and Deep River watersheds are all priorities for protection. According to the conservationist, much of Salem is better suited to remain in its natural state than to be turned into housing.

    "Salem's complex geology has made Salem's development difficult and expensive for builders, due to steep slopes, high water tables and varied soil types with many rock outcrops," he said.

    Fair and responsible growth

    Both Bingham and Smith said affordable housing should be explored as part of a plan to grow the town in a way that takes into account its unique character.

    According to Smith, the Planning and Zoning Commission is "very aware" of the need for encouraging housing options that people can afford.

    "That's kind of a general consensus among the people you talk to, although I know there's a cadre that would like to maintain the single-family, large-lot kind of format that we have here, and we favor that," Smith said.

    The conversation comes as national, state and local officials explore zoning policies to promote equality and affordability amid restrictive regulations that can keep minority and low-income communities out of affluent areas.

    The town's draft affordable housing plan, which will be the subject of a public hearing on Sept. 21, includes several ideas for bolstering the availability of affordable living spaces in town. One recommendation is to require a certain percentage of units in multifamily or senior housing developments to be sold or rented at or below so-called affordable rates. Definitions are laid out in state statute, with "low income" referring to those who make less than 80% of the area median income.

    The median household income in the Norwich-New London metropolitan area is $91,800, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

    Some recommendations in the draft affordable housing plan target multifamily housing, like one that would change local regulations to allow duplexes in any zone that allows single-family homes. Another would allow the rental of single-family houses that include accessory apartments without requiring the owner to live there.

    For Bingham, the most responsible way to promote housing equity while preserving the environment is to invest in parcels of land that already have been developed. He described the transformation of one-family houses into multi-family houses as "the likely pattern of future 'development' of Salem and its neighboring towns, growing its population and economy in a controlled manner, with less impact on the remarkable natural landscape we are privileged to share."

    He contrasted the duplex model with the kind of large affordable housing developments that can result from a state law affecting municipalities where less than 10% of the housing stock is considered affordable.

    The law since 1989 has given developers the right to sue the town if their plans are rejected, and shifts the burden of proof to the municipality to show the risk to public health or safety outweighs the need for affordable housing.

    Smith, who shares a driveway with a rental duplex unit, said the two-family home fits right into the neighborhood while providing more affordable housing options.

    "That's a very good model for that sort of thing," he said. "So we're trying to help make zoning that will help make a little more of that happen."

    More to offer

    Lara Briscoe in July purchased the condo she'd been renting for the past year and a half on Route 85 near the roundabout.

    "It had more charm and was much more affordable than your standard apartment complex," she said.

    Raised in North Stonington before moving to Groton, she works for a medical device company in Mystic and as a substitute librarian. She said she chose her current place based on ample parking, quiet living and proximity to work — but as it stands now, she doesn't see Salem as her forever home.

    Briscoe cited surrounding towns with "more to offer" in terms of shopping and restaurants.

    While small-town charm is nice and the quiet streets are why she and her boyfriend have stayed this long, she said development done right can enhance the positives.

    Linda Swanson, the one who moved to Salem when she was 5 years old at the beginning of its population boom, said she left town for more than 30 years before coming back to care for her ailing father in 2011.

    "Will I stay? No," she said. "Not because of Salem, but sadly because Connecticut has become too expensive to retire in."

    She reported she'll be moving to Tennessee with her younger daughter and grandchildren.

    Still, she remains fond of the town where she grew up amid so much open space, and where neighbors continue to help neighbors like they always did.

    "Luckily, my oldest daughter wants my house," she said. "So she'll be buying it next year."

     e.regan@theday.com

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