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    Friday, April 26, 2024

    Gambling 101: If it looks too good to be true ...

    Not to get philosophical on you in a column about gambling, but gambling mirrors real life in this way:

    If something looks too good to be true ... it usually is.

    It's how the wiseguys make their money. The majority of the public bets a game one way because it seems obvious who will win ... and the public loses. Then the wiseguys buy new Range Rovers.

    Two such lines this week stink worse than the Giants. (And one of them involves the Giants). The lines are dubious because they look so tantalizing.

    First, there's Purdue as a three-point dog at home to Wisconsin. Think about it: Purdue is 4-2, a week removed from throttling No. 2 Iowa in Iowa. The Boilers come home to play 3-3 Wisconsin, a week removed from a six-point win at home over Army.

    We've watched Wisconsin lose at home to Penn State and get thrown down a flight of stairs by Notre Dame and Michigan. And now Wisconsin goes on the road against a team that just took down No. 2 and is a favorite?

    Most of the public will bet Purdue with both hands for all the aforementioned reasons. Don't you do it. Somebody knows something. The guess here is that Wisconsin will cover that easily. Why? Because the line makes no sense.

    The other line that feels a sucker bet is Carolina laying only three at New York's NFC Affiliate. (They don't deserve to be called the Giants until they start playing like the Giants again.)

    Anyhoo, New York's NFC Affiliate won't have Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton or Kadarius Toney. Worse, they won't have left tackle Andrew Thomas, meaning that poor Danny Dimes will be under siege worse than Gen. Custer.

    Carolina, meanwhile, is seventh in the NFL with 16 total sacks. I get that Sam Darnold isn't exactly John Elway, but still, the facts suggest the Joe Judge ought to be up for the Nobel Prize if this mess strings together two first downs, let alone scores a point.

    The public will likely send it in on Carolina. It looks too easy. That means New York's NFC Affiliate won't only cover, but might win outright.

    We'll make Wisconsin my best bet. Here are the best bets from the other members of The Day's sports staff:

    Chuck Banning: Giants (+3 at home vs. Panthers). "I'm already regretting this and I haven't even finished typing. But this is exactly the type of game they win. If the Giants can win at New Orleans, they certainly can beat Carolina at home. This, of course, means they lose by 10."

    Vickie Fulkerson: Patriots (-7 at home vs. Jets). "I was watching the Patriots-Cowboys last week and, as a Cowboys fan, Mac Jones gave me a heart attack. The Patriots are better than their 2-4 record and since when have they ever been 0-4 at home? This is a division game in the AFC East and New England has beaten the Jets already this season (26-5, Week 2). For those reasons and a million others, there's no way the Patriots don't open things up against the Jets."

    Ned Griffen: Houston (+17.5 at Arizona). "To quote a great Western Philosopher (Homer Simpson), 'Feeling Stupid? I know I am!"

    Dave Davis: USC (+7 at Notre Dame). "As a lifelong USC fan, this is always my favorite game of the season. Had national title implications almost every year when I was a kid. I'm no longer a kid and these two teams are no longer national powers, although thanks to a schedule softer than melted cheese, many think the Irish are. This edition of the game may be hard to watch for long-time fans."

    Gavin Keefe: L.A. Rams (-16 at Detroit). "Hoping LA plays well so Ram superfan Bill Tavares doesn't throw his remote control through his TV. He's gone through more TVs over the years than his team has won titles."

    This is the opinion of Day sports columnist Mike DiMauro

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